The international crude oil market experienced a dramatic week last week.
Spurred by crude oil, the polyester market is booming, and polyester filament has finally bottomed out and rebounded with the support of all parties! Especially for FDY products, the price rose by 400 yuan/ton in a single day, the largest single-day increase since 2012. Other products also have room for growth to varying degrees.
However, on the first day after the holiday, the painting style took a turn for the worse.
Affected by rising crude supplies and weak fuel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, investors are also optimistic that the world’s major oil producers will Expectations to soon agree to production cuts have become more cautious. International crude oil prices plummeted.
As of the close on the 7th, the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at US$23.63/barrel, a decrease of 9.4%, and the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at US$31.87/barrel, a decrease of 3.6%.
Affected by the negative impact of the sharp drop in crude oil, 8 On the same day, the commodity futures market also fluctuated and weakened.
In terms of PTA, the main PTA 2009 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange closed at 3,506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day.
In terms of ethylene glycol, the main ethylene glycol 2005 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 3,369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton or 0.35% compared with the previous trading day.
The crude oil market has always been affected by the news. After crude oil plummeted, it opened slightly higher on the 8th. It can be seen that the near-term future of crude oil is unclear and has been in a volatile situation. Crude oil plays an important role in indicating the trend of the downstream polyester market.
Walking with polyester prices, polyester production and sales have exceeded 100 for three consecutive days, breaking the vicious circle that had been hovering around 50% before. The explosion in production and sales is not only because polyester prices have begun to rise, but also because the mentality of the weaving market has changed.
1. Polyester price stops After falling and rebounding, purchasing is just in time for replenishment
Downstream weaving manufacturers’ purchasing strategy for raw materials has been buy-and-use since last year, and purchases are just needed. . Especially after polyester yarn continued to open a downward channel, market confidence was obviously under pressure, and the mentality of “buying up, not buying down” became more prominent. In addition, the weaving market has been in poor condition recently, with a high return rate, difficult production and sales, and continuous accumulation of gray fabric inventories. Weaving manufacturers are even more cautious about polyester yarns.
Stimulating demand for raw materials from weaving manufacturers.
2. There is speculation, Is it time to buy the dip?
The price of polyester filament has been affected by crude oil, PTA, and MEG. For a long time, the plunge of crude oil caused PTA, MEG The price has also plummeted, not to mention polyester, which is probably the same as “cabbage price”. Upstream costs are not favorable, and the bottom line of polyester yarn price decline is unknown.
The price of polyester yarn itself has reached a new low level in the past 10 years. Now, driven by PTA and MEG, the price of polyester yarn has bottomed out and rebounded. Many weaving manufacturers and traders believed that the time for bargain hunting had arrived and began to hoard raw materials crazily. As a result, on the 3rd, the production and sales of some polyester factories even exceeded 1,000%! When selling at this price, in addition to one’s own needs, there is also the phenomenon of wanting to make a profit when the price of raw materials is low. This shows that the current price of polyester yarn has reached the lowest point in the minds of most market participants, who think that this is the time to make a profit. A very suitable time to buy bargains.
Although polyester filament seems to have ended its steady decline in the past six months, the continuous production and sales exceeding 100 in the past few days have also boosted the current market. Confidence, but now production and sales continue to fall, it is still based on the fact that the basic pattern of polyester yarn is still weak, coupled with greater uncertainty in the crude oil market, therefore, we cannot ignore the crisis behind polyester yarn.
The tree has deep roots and polyester stocks are still high
The most important thing that cannot be ignored is the current inventory of polyester yarn in polyester factories. According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 32-43 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 26-33 days, FDY inventory is around 27-34 days, and DTY inventory is around 27-34 days. to about 32-43 days.
Although when production and sales are good, polyester The factory has removed part of its inventory, but compared with the previous inventory backlog, the inventory drop in the past two days can be regarded as a “drizzle” and does not have any real impact on the overall inventory.�� changes. At the same time, the current load of polyester filament in polyester factories is around 75%, which is not a low level. If the production and sales of polyester filament cannot keep up with the output, the inventory of polyester filament will continue to increase, and the price will not continue to rise.
The weaving market is difficult to improve, and polyester yarn may be priced but not available
Concerning the current market conditions, most companies can only shake their heads or sigh. Especially in the foreign trade market, most companies have almost come to a standstill. It is very difficult to switch from foreign trade to domestic trade in the current sluggish market. Foreign trade orders are frequently canceled, and domestic trade demand is difficult to recover.
Take the current situation of Guangzhou Zhongda Cloth Market as an example. As one of the largest textile distribution centers in the country, it has also suffered the impact of the epidemic, and the current flow of people is sharp. Minus, business is light. One of the shop owners said that in the past, it was very busy both online and offline, and customers had to queue up. Spring is very prosperous, both in foreign trade and domestic sales. However, the recent decrease in the number of people is extraordinary. One week after the stall was opened, there were almost no people at all, and the customer flow was almost zero.
It can be said that the current situation of the medium and large market It is also the current situation of the national textile fabric market. The fabric market demand is extremely shrinking, and order follow-up is seriously insufficient, which directly leads to traders’ demand for gray fabrics, which in turn affects the weaving market. It is difficult for the weaving market to improve. Therefore, no matter how strong the price of polyester filament is, it will eventually face a situation of price but no market.
The rise in polyester yarn in the past few days + the production and sales have exceeded 100 consecutively. If it is not based on substantial demand, it can only be said to be a “false prosperity” phenomenon.
On the 8th, the transaction atmosphere of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was light, and the production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were only around 20-40%… It can be seen that polyester prices rose Behind the price, support from all parties is still needed.
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