On April 15, the price of polyester filament yarn from major major manufacturers increased by 50-100 yuan/ton: polyester yarn from two major manufacturers in Tongxiang increased by 50 yuan/ton; polyester yarn from one major major manufacturer in Shengze, Jiangsu POY rose, FDY, a major mainstream factory in Shaoxing, rose by 50 yuan/ton, polyester yarn, a major mainstream factory in Xiaoshan, rose by 50 yuan/ton, DTY, a major factory in Zhejiang, rose by 50 yuan, FDY rose by 100 yuan/ton…
The direct cause of the increase in polyester prices is the surge in crude oil overnight:
Local time 4 On the evening of March 14, an explosion occurred at the international airport in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq. In addition, the “three energy giants” OPEC, IEA, and EIA released three oil market reports, showing that crude oil demand will rebound while inventories are declining. Affected by these two news, the actual price of Brent crude oil futures in June closed up $2.91/barrel on Wednesday, an increase of 4.57%, to $66.58/barrel. The actual price of U.S. May crude oil futures closed up $2.97/barrel on Wednesday, or 4.94%, at $63.15/barrel.
But there are deeper reasons. But the fundamental reason is the big sale of polyester on April 12th. On April 12, under the pressure of excessive polyester inventory, major polyester factories started promotions at the same time, with promotions ranging from 200 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton. Under such vigorous promotions by polyester factories, weaving companies that usually buy and use raw materials have also begun to replenish their stocks. The average production and sales on that day exceeded 500%, and some manufacturers even reached 1,000%.
As a result, a lot of inventory in polyester factories was suddenly removed. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the overall inventory in the polyester market is now concentrated in 15-24 days; specifically, In terms of products, POY inventory lasts 6-12 days, FDY inventory lasts around 12-19 days, and DTY inventory lasts around 11-24 days.
This promotion only lasted for one day. The price of polyester yarn rose the next day, and profits returned again. To a high level, the current situation for polyester factories, with high profits and low inventory, can be said to be “advance to attack, retreat to defend.”
Under such circumstances, polyester factories have regained the confidence to increase prices. Regardless of changes in upstream crude oil, PTA, or ethylene glycol, the price of polyester filament has also increased. A rise is possible.
Of course, whether the price of polyester yarn can rise will also depend on whether downstream weaving companies buy into it.
From a macro data point of view, in the first quarter of this year, the country’s textile and apparel exports were US$65.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44% (a year-on-year increase of 34% in RMB), which was higher than that in the first quarter of 2019 (epidemic) Export volume increased by 15.6%, reaching a record high. Under such circumstances, it is impossible for the market to remain tepid all the time.
From a micro perspective, although the gray fabric market has performed poorly since March, clothing and terminal exports have performed well. But very good. Mr. Hong, who specializes in elastic fabrics, said: “After more than a month, the fabrics that were pressed into the hands of traders at the beginning of the year have been almost consumed, and now orders can be received by the end of the year.”
In terms of the operating rate of weaving enterprises, the current operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable at around 80%, and there is still potential for upward improvement.
Of course we must also see that elastic fabrics have been performing well since last year, but similar to polyester taffeta, Conventional products such as pongee and imitation silk, which have a larger market scale, are not consumed as quickly as expected due to the larger inventory accumulated in the past, so it is difficult for the market to suddenly explode.
Therefore, the editor judges that there is still room for the price of polyester yarn to rise in the future, but the possibility of a surge like the one just started in the new year is unlikely, and the probability of a slow rise of 50 or 100 yuan is not. It’s not small. </p
