On May 13, the polyester factory once again launched a large promotion of polyester filament: the price of polyester filament at a factory in Xiaoshan was reduced by 100-150 yuan today; another factory in Tongxiang A large polyester factory has a one-day sales promotion, with the price reduced by 150-250 yuan; a large Taicang factory has a discount promotion, with a price reduction of 250 yuan; a Shaoxing FDY factory has a polyester price reduction of 200 yuan today;…However, polyester promotions have become commonplace. It has long become a routine in polyester factories. Tracing back to the upstream of polyester, bulk commodities such as crude oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol have been rising recently, forming a polyester industry chain that is hot at the top and cold at the bottom.
However, the volume of downstream weaving end-connection orders is on a downward trend, and the overall shipment of gray fabrics has slowed down. Except for some elastic fabrics and nylon spinning orders, the orders are relatively good. , other products still lack bright spots, so most textile companies cannot feel the peak season. Although the downstream market is weak, upstream crude oil, PTA, ethylene glycol and other bulk commodities are rising. Under this situation, many cloth bosses predict that polyester filament and other polyester raw materials will rise in the market outlook, and issue price increase warnings.
From April to now, this has been a gathering of The 6th promotion of Ester Factory, “promotion” has become daily sales. Judging from the previous five promotions, each promotion has a reduction of 200-400 yuan, and will be slightly adjusted back the next day. In other words, despite many promotions, the price of polyester filament has fluctuated and stabilized in more than a month, without significant changes. Therefore, the promotion of polyester yarn failed to have much impact on future prices. It can be seen that although polyester filament yarns continue to be promoted, the possibility of price increases in the future cannot be ruled out. It is reasonable for the cloth boss to believe that there will be another wave of price increases in the future.
So what is the actual future trend of raw materials? The editor believes that it can be viewed dialectically, and will be analyzed from both sides. In the future, the factors affecting the price of polyester raw materials will mainly be the global economic environment and the recovery of textile and apparel demand.
The commodity carnival may drive the rise of chemical fiber raw materials. At present, the domestic epidemic control situation is good, vaccination coverage continues to expand, and China’s textile and apparel demand is improving. The release of a new round of economic policies in the United States has led to an overall improvement in the financial market. Supported by inflation expectations, investment sentiment in the financial market is high. Recently, bulk commodities have begun to have a carnival. Although polyester filament is still on sale, other chemical fiber products have begun to increase, among which cotton is the most prominent, and the price has gone up. Driven by this general environment, the possibility of other polyester raw materials, including polyester filament, further increasing in the future.
As the epidemic worsens, foreign trade orders may return or support raw materials In terms of rising exports, my country’s textile and apparel exports performed solidly overall in the first quarter of 2021, with exports growing by as much as 43.7% year-on-year. Export volume exceeded the same period in 2019, with an average growth of 8.7% over the two years. Judging from the data, foreign trade is also gradually recovering and is expected to improve further in the second half of the year. In addition, the worsening epidemic in India is also penetrating into some countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Countries in these regions are important textile and clothing production areas. The deterioration of their epidemic will inevitably lead to restrictions on textile production, which to a certain extent will bring The phenomenon of orders returning to China. Therefore, my country’s textile and apparel exports are expected to continue to achieve restorative growth. The increase in orders has amplified the demand for gray fabrics, which is transmitted from bottom to upstream. Another increase in polyester raw materials is expected soon.
It will last for a long time, maybe 1 to 2 years or even longer. For the time being, don’t imagine that the prices of raw materials for various bulk imported commodities will fall. Buying various production raw materials quickly will preserve profits, otherwise pure processing factories It’s hard to live.”
Lack of terminal requirements Support, raw materials may be easy to fall but difficult to rise
However, there is a saying that goes well, “Price increases without demand are just hooligans”! In other words, if the downstream weaving end receives poor orders, it will be difficult for polyester filament and other chemical fiber raw materials to increase in price. Without strong support for the increase, the price will most likely be a “one-day trip”. The current weaving market has shown signs of weakness. With the hot weather and the traditional off-season approaching, the demand for raw materials on the weaving end has further weakened. Polyester factories will also have accumulated inventory even if they do not reduce their operating hours. At this time, raw material prices are likely to be easy to fall but difficult to rise.
The epidemic is coming againThe epidemic is spreading, and the general environment affects raw material prices. The impact of the epidemic on textiles and clothing has not dissipated. In April, the overseas epidemic situation is out of control and may have another impact on the world. Whether it is the economic environment or textile and clothing demand, there will be a lot of impact. Influence. Under the circumstances of “domestic and foreign troubles”, both bulk commodities and polyester raw materials will lose support and will once again be trapped in the quagmire of low prices.
Editor’s Note
It is worth noting that although many cloth owners predict that raw materials will show an upward trend, they cannot rule out that it is a means of speculation. In a market accustomed to hyping up various concepts, especially when the order intake situation is weak, some market participants will not let go of the active increase in bulk commodities, using this to publicize the news that raw materials and gray fabrics are about to increase in price, in order to stimulate terminals. Place orders in advance, stock up on goods, etc. Therefore, when the epidemic situation in many countries around the world is in deep quagmire, textile people must rationally judge the future textile market.
</p
