On June 22, the 10th price reduction promotion for polyester filament began, and it was also the last price reduction promotion in the first half of the year. Subsequently, the price of polyester yarn stopped falling and rebounded, and began to increase prices for five consecutive days. As of July 5, the price of polyester yarn not only returned to the price promoted in early April, but also surpassed it by a large margin. It has the momentum to hit the highest point in raw material prices this year. Profits also ended the decline since March and began to soar. However, the rise came to an abrupt end in early July, and the price remained stable for a week. On July 13, POY150D was even tentatively lowered by 25 yuan/ton. Although the adjustment was not large, it was the end of the short-term polyester rise. Signal.
The mutated virus “is still lingering.” ”, the rising momentum of crude oil is not strong
The recent wave of unexpected strength in polyester yarn is mainly due to the sharp rise in international oil prices, which provides cost for polyester yarn. Support, but international oil prices have fallen sharply recently. In addition to the fruitless outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, which deepened the market’s concerns about a possible price war in crude oil, another point is that the epidemic that is raging around the world has not completely ended with the vaccination.
Last week, many governments around the world restarted curfews or other epidemic prevention measures due to the spread of mutant viruses such as Delta. About 400,000 people in the UK were infected with the new coronavirus in the past week, a sharp increase from the previous week. However, the UK announced that it will no longer implement social distancing measures from July 19. Delta virus infection cases have covered all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and some vaccinated people are still unable to withstand the attack of the mutated virus. In the week as of last Sunday, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in the United States surged 47%, the highest level since April 2020 largest single-week increase.
In Asia, last week Indonesia, Thailand, The number of new confirmed cases in a single day in South Korea and other places hit a new high; Japan also declared a state of emergency for the fourth time, and the Tokyo Olympics may be held behind closed doors. Brazil has recorded 57,737 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. New lockdown restrictions have been introduced in parts of South Korea and Vietnam to curb the spread of the Delta variant virus, which has also cast a shadow on the outlook for oil demand, with crude oil prices last week recording their first weekly decline since May.
According to market analysis, crude oil is currently estimated to have a supply shortage of approximately 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day in July and August, but supply may exceed supply in September. Begging, began to turn to Lei Ku. After the oversupply of crude oil occurs, it will inevitably lead to a fall in international oil prices. Polyester yarn prices have fallen slightly recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices. The crude oil market may correct again in September, which means polyester prices will continue to weaken.
Weaving starts to pick up during the peak season, and polyester prices are likely to become stronger
The recent increase in raw material prices always gives people the impression that the price increase is out of touch with the market. After all, the overall textile market is in poor condition during the off-season. At this time, the increase in raw material prices is tantamount to “sucking money from the bottom of the cauldron”, leaving the remaining textile orders due to Loss occurs due to price increase.
According to a trader, they have a customer who has been in business for 7 years. They have always used the same fabric. The order is relatively simple and the profit is not bad. However, due to the recent increase in fabric prices, customers have chosen suppliers from other regions. In fact, customers still trust them very much and gave them a target price. However, this target price is close to his fabric cost, and it is impossible to make money if he reluctantly accepts it. In addition, the recent rise in raw materials makes him worry that the fabric cost will further rise in the future, and the order may turn from breakeven to loss.
Textile people who lack orders increase the price of raw materials Naturally, it is difficult to understand and accept, but as far as the entire market is concerned, the increase in raw material prices may be difficult to reverse. Since July, the weaving operation rate in the entire Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has basically been on the rise. In some textile clusters such as Haining and Changshu, the operation rate has even jumped from more than 70% in June to more than 90%. The rising operating rate will inevitably mean more demand for textile raw materials. As weaving companies use up their stocks, the production and sales of raw materials will inevitably increase.
It is still only a start-up in the off-season Compared with the peak textile season of September and October in previous years, the weaving start-up rate of each cluster will reach the highest peak of the year. In other words, the current operating rate is still far from the peak. During the period leading to the peak season, the operating rate will gradually increase. The demand for raw materials in September and October will be unmatched now, and it will inevitably be accompanied by an increase in raw material prices. Even if oil prices may fall back in the peak season, as long as the end demand is still there, textile raw materials can jump very fast based on “demand” alone.high.
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