Oil prices are finally going to fall, and the news of the drop will be on June 28evening span>24 Announcement.
The forecast for 92 gasoline is reduced by an average of 0.22yuan/liters, 95 The average forecast for No. 98 gasoline has been lowered by 0.24 yuan/, and the forecast for No. 98 gasoline has been lowered on average 0.25yuan/liter, No. 0 diesel forecast is lowered on average by 0.22yuan/rises.
Weavers who need refueling are advised to refill it after the price is adjusted at night.
Polyester raw materials fell across the board
The drop in gasoline prices is a by-product of the drop in international crude oil prices. As a result, international oil prices have dropped from a high of 120US dollars to105 Around US dollars, which has brought about a decline in the prices of a series of products in the polyester industry chain.
In terms of PTA, domestic PTA prices fell significantly last week, as of 6 months24The domestic spot price in Japan was 6695yuan/tons, higher than a week ago It fell 474< before (6month17day) span> yuan/ tons, a decrease of 6.6%, PTAFutures were close to the limit on June June 24.
In terms of MEG, last weekMEG prices dropped significantly, as of6 months24The domestic spot price in Japan was 4561 yuan/ tons, higher than a week ago (6month17 day) fell 594 Yuan/ tons, a decrease of 10.7%.
In terms of polyester filament, taking FDY150D as an example, within a week, the average price reduction of polyesterFDY150D was300yuan/ tons, some manufacturers’ promotional discounts are as high as 400-500 Yuan/tons.
But we have also seen that even with such a large discount, downstream companies are not very willing to accept it. On the day of the promotion, the production and sales rate of polyester factories exceeded 100, and the purpose of reducing inventory was not achieved. Fabric bosses are thinking about one thing: Will the price of polyester yarn continue to fall?
Will polyester prices fall again?
As far as general commodities are concerned, there are two factors that affect the price, one is supply and demand, and the other is cost.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the current polyester filament yarn is in a very obvious situation of oversupply. On the one hand, after the epidemic, the number of downstream orders has shrunk significantly, and more orders have flowed to Vietnam. After the epidemic, our country has received more ill will from Western countries, which has also affected the orders received by enterprises; on the other hand, Starting from 2020, with the expansion of the number of looms starting from 2018, domestic polyester production capacity has entered a new year’s production capacity growth cycle . This situation has exacerbated the oversupply of polyester yarns.
From a cost perspective, the source of the polyester industry chain is crude oil. Due to inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war, international oil prices have been rising, which has driven up crude oil prices. Then inflation is too high and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Dollars flow back to the United States, and Europe also With the interest rate hike, in order to allow more dollars to flow back to the United States, we can only continue to “spark” the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which will then stimulate inflation, and then continue to raise interest rates. Therefore, it is difficult for international oil prices to continue to fall, and at the same time, it is difficult to rise. If it falls, the United States will “fire up”, and if it rises, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Therefore, it is difficult for crude oil prices to fall very low in the future, and similarly, it will not rise so high that there is no end in sight.
Therefore, polyester prices may fluctuate in the future due to fluctuations in international oil prices, but due to supply and demand reasons, the overall trend may slowly decline.
Of course, the production capacity of polyester filament is currently mainly concentrated in the hands of a few major manufacturers, and their impact on polyester prices will definitely be stronger than that of tens of thousands of downstream weaving companies, so there will be�A situation where prices are “easy to rise but difficult to fall”. But in the long run, polyester prices will still return to the basic law of value.
Silk is better to be cheaper
For textile companies, the sharp rise and fall of raw materials is not good news. The skyrocketing cost makes it unbearable, and downstream companies are reluctant to increase prices, thus directly losing profits; the inventory plummets and the value of cloth depreciates, traders will wait and see, and the number of orders will decrease. But judging from the situation in the future, the decline in raw material prices will benefit textile companies more.
In the next one or two years, there will not be many signs of recovery in the world economic situation, and the possibility of getting worse is very high. In this case, how textile companies can survive the economic impact is the most important. At present, many companies are just struggling to survive. The price reduction of raw materials can reduce the cost of maintaining production for textile companies, and there will be greater hope of eventually surviving.
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