On JuneJune28, domestic gasoline prices have just dropped, and the editor took advantage of the drop to quickly fill up a tank of gas.
As expected, not long after the oil price fell, the United States began to “war on fire” again. G7 announced a new wave of sanctions against Russia, and oil prices rose in response, causing polyester Raw material prices rebounded sharply. Why has the price of crude oil been rising and falling recently? Let me briefly review the logic. One family’s opinion, for reference only.
A “selected” America
One side
The domestic inflation rate in the United States is too high, which has affected the normal lives of residents and the stability of the financial system. Especially crude oil, as the most important resource in modern industry, its price changes directly affect the inflation rate. In order to prevent oil prices from rising too quickly, the United States has also contacted Saudi Arabia and other energy countries, but it is of little use.
There is no other way but to use financial means. The Federal Reserve announced on Beijing time 2022year6month16Announced an interest rate hike in the early morning of the same day75 basis points (the federal funds target interest rate range is to 1.5%-1.75%) Under the expectation of interest rate hikes, since 6 month2day to 6month16Day, international copper prices fell by 13%, hitting nearly16A new monthly low, crude oil driven by geopolitical factorsThisthe biggest drop in two weeks has exceeded 10%,Inflation has finally eased.
The other side
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Western European and American countries have imposed sanctions on Russia one after another. RecentlyThe leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) will On June 28 promised to take a new package of coordinated actions to increase pressure on Russia, said that they would continue to restrict Russia’s exports, especially Russia’s gold exports.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, after repeated suppressions, Russia’s main export products are almost only necessities such as energy, grain, and fertilizers. Especially when the economy is not good, these things are almost hard currency. (In fact, the same is true for China, which inexplicably restricted the import of Xinjiang cotton from China.) The market’s reaction was also obvious. As soon as the news of sanctions came out, oil prices continued to rise.
In June, the United States’1 year inflation rate reached a new high, reaching 8% , 5The monthly revision was 7.5%, and consumer confidence fell to 16The minimum is 16 months.
“The drunkard is not interested in drinking”
Of course, for Russia, such sanctions are often just sanctions, and the United States is also “drunkard” in doing so.
Russia is a major exporter of crude oil. Especially after European and American countries kicked the ruble out of the US dollar settlement system, Russia directly linked the ruble to the price of natural gas, oil and other energy sources, and the ruble rose sharply.
Now that the international energy situation is so tense, there is no shortage of buyers for bulk commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. If Europe doesn’t buy them, China and India will buy them too. Especially in India, when Russian oil arrives in India, it turns into Indian oil and then exports it to Europe. India makes a lot of money in vain.
Such “repeated jumps” by the United States seem like a useless effort. In fact, the real target may not necessarily be Russia. horse�It’s the mid-term elections. With domestic inflation so high, people are having a hard time, and they have to find someone to take the blame. If Russia wants to take the blame, it has to sanction him. It can also suppress the euro and stabilize the dollar. Although the inflation in the United States is high and the inflation in China, another major economy, is well controlled, as long as the inflation in Europe and Japan is higher than that in the United States and the U.S. dollar raises interest rates, money will still flow to the United States, and the United States will be able to survive this debt crisis. As soon as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the currencies of Japan and Southeast Asian countries will depreciate, and imports from there will become cheaper.
But because China does not follow that policy, most products have to be imported from China, and goods cannot be made cheaper, so inflation cannot be too high. After all, if inflation is too high, ordinary people cannot stand it, and it will not affect votes. Once inflation is too high and crude oil production cannot be increased, interest rates can only be raised. In the end, crude oil prices will ride a “roller coaster” and trigger a series of chain reactions in the polyester industry chain.
The textile man “lying flat”
Today’s crude oil demand is tight, but end-use textile consumption is insufficient, resulting in downstream PX, PTA, MEG and polyester filament is more or less excessive, which ultimately leads to the price of these raw materials almost following crude oil. Last week, crude oil plummeted, and raw material prices continued to fall. Over the weekend, crude oil began to rebound, and raw material prices began to rise again. The same goes for polyester prices. There was a big sale last week, but this week the sale will be canceled immediately, and the price has even started to rise.
The rising and falling raw materials have also caused some confusion in weaving factories. In the past, polyester prices generally followed a trend, either rising all the time, rising until they can no longer rise, or falling all the time. But recently, the price of crude oil has been on a “roller coaster”, and the rise and fall of polyester prices are different every week. If you don’t stock up, you may lose money, and if you stock up, you may lose even more. Therefore, many fabric bosses simply “lay down” and don’t care whether they have promotions or price increases, and they still buy as much as they should.
Afterword
Ukraine has shown a clear decline recently, but the United States has pulled Lithuania (who also provoked China on the Taiwan issue some time ago) to cause trouble in the Russian enclave of Ningrad. This place was originally East Prussia, historically a German place. After World War II, it was assigned to the Soviet Union under the Yalta Agreement and is an important Russian naval base. Once something happens here, Germany might be dragged into trouble. All we can say is that as long as the economy continues to deteriorate, the United States’ “segmentation” will not stop, and the sharp rise and fall in oil prices will continue. Textile people may have to get used to it in the next period of time.
</p
