Late night storm! In the early morning of the 6th, crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, down nearly 10%. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months.
Domestic commodities also generally turned green in the night trading, with PTA and ethylene glycol falling by more than 4%.
The main 2209 contract of PTA futures opened at 350 yuan/ton, which was -100 yuan/ton from the previous settlement.
Dashang’s main ethylene glycol contract opened at 4421 at night at 2209, and closed at 4252, down 188 yuan/ton.
During the session on July 5, the U.S. 2-year and 5-year Treasury bond yields briefly inverted. An inversion in Treasury yields is often seen as a sign of a recession. The market’s worries about the U.S. economic recession have intensified, and the U.S. dollar index has hit a new high in the past 20 years. As a result, international oil prices have suffered a sharp fall. At the same time, commodities were affected and fell rapidly. Due to the weak performance of polyester raw materials, the finished product inventory of polyester filament factories is under great pressure, showing a weak operating trend. On the 6th, each polyester factory issued a price reduction notice:
The price of polyester yarn from a major factory in Xiaoshan dropped by 100-150 yuan/ton today;
A large factory in Tongxiang lowered the price of polyester yarn by 100-300 yuan/ton today;
Another factory in Xiaoshan lowered the price of polyester POY by 200 yuan/ton today;
The polyester POY price of a Taicang No. 1 factory dropped by 250 yuan/ton today;
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01
Crude oil plummets, polyester negative news spreads
In the past month, the polyester filament market has declined first and then increased, and the overall price focus has shown an upward trend. Since mid-June, dragged down by the sharp drop in international oil prices, the overall bearish atmosphere in the polyester market has continued to spread. The polyester filament market has also been unable to escape the fate of falling, and most of the product prices have been unable to move forward.
Since mid-June, the polyester filament market has been enveloped in a weak atmosphere. Downstream weaving manufacturers appear to be quite cautious in purchasing, and the overall market production and sales are difficult to exceed 100. However, the current polyester filament inventory is still at a high level of more than one month, which is much higher than the same period in previous years. In July, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester yarn became prominent, and it is likely that the price will continue to hit the bottom.
In terms of price, as of July 6, the market quotations of polyester filament semi-gloss FDY150D are mostly concentrated around 8,750 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of nearly 950 yuan/ton, or 9.79%, compared with the price in mid-June; in addition, POY 150D The average market quotation is around 8,150 yuan/ton, which is 1,050 yuan/ton lower than the price in mid-June, or 11.41%. In addition, the average market price of DTY 150D has been slightly adjusted to around 10,500 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price in mid-June. Compared with mid-June, the price dropped slightly by 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.95%.
02
It is the off-season downstream, so be cautious when purchasing raw materials.
The dominant factor in the recent market conditions is the downstream demand side. Entering July, market sales have also decreased compared with the previous period. Since the market is in the seasonal exchange period, which is the period with the smallest volume of goods in a year, prices have also stabilized with the raw materials. weaken. The sales of mainstream varieties in the market are weak. For example, the sales of full-elastic pongee and peach skin velvet, which are mainstream products in the market, are not as good as the same period last year.
From the sample companies monitored by Silkdu.com, it can be seen that the market was affected by poor buying sentiment, and the inventory increased slightly to 36 days, which was a relatively high point during the year; in terms of the operating rate, with the arrival of the off-season, the operating rate of manufacturers continued to decline, and the current boom The operating rate of water-jet and air-jet looms in Zezhou area is 50-60%, and the market outlook will further decline.
In the current textile off-season, the destocking process of polyester yarn is slow, and the polyester yarn will be weak in the short term. But in the long term, there may still be variables.
International oil prices have continued to decline recently, but the ups and downs in oil prices this year have become commonplace, and they may bottom out in the future. If the oil price returns to US$110 or US$120, with the support of the cost side, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol will pick up, and polyester yarn may also rebound with the help of the cost side.
Although it is the traditional off-season recently, the foreign trade market, which has been dormant for a long time, has slightly outstanding performance, and can even be said to support the entire market. This is accompanied by the good news that the United States has lifted some tariffs on China, which will further help the recovery of the foreign trade market in the future. Then it is also the traditional peak season for the domestic market. The two factors are superimposed, and there will be a wave of ordering climax in the second half of the year. With the improvement in downstream demand, polyester yarn is also expected to regain its right to speak.
Summarize
Although polyester filament is currently surrounded by negative factors, it is undeniable that the future direction of crude oil is unclear and there is still a possibility of rebound. Then polyester yarn is supported by favorable factors, and we still need to pay attention to its cost side and supply and demand side in the future.
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