Last Wednesday (7month13day), PTAPTA span>The futures fell directly to the limit, falling420 points in a single day. Then in the next few days, the price of PTA continued to fall, and the price of PTA in the market was about to fall below 5000The voice suddenly became louder.
And this Monday (7month18 day), PTA The price of futures began to soar, rising by 6%, which was close to reaching the daily limit.
Will PTA fall below 5000?
The answer is of course yes. After all, time is not added to this question. From the historical price point of view, let alone falling below 5000 in 2020 when the epidemic just started to rage. span>PTAThe lowest level has fallen to 3000, and it will fall below 5000 is inevitable. The question is, will PTA fall below 5000 again in the near future? That depends on the impactPTAThe price depends on several factors.
Crude oil may remain high in the short term
Some time ago, PTA skyrocketed, and last week’s PTA plummeted. The direct source is the emergence of the most advanced international oil prices. Big ups and downs.
Some time ago, the price of crude oil rose to more than 120 US dollars at its highest, and dropped to less than 95 US dollars at its lowest. The rise and fall of more than 2 are closely related to the international political situation, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the Russia-Ukraine war, and global inflation. The recent closest relationship with international oil prices should be the US President’s trip to the Middle East. Judging from the news, there is no agreement to increase production. This is also the direct reason for the recent surge in crude oil. It can be seen that the major oil producers in the Middle East are now also I don’t want oil prices to fall, after all, who doesn’t love the days of just lying around and making money.
In today’s global economic situation, energy prices are almost dominated by oil-producing countries. Coupled with the political factors of the Russia-Ukraine war and the economic factors of inflation, it is difficult for oil prices to truly reduce.
The most likely reason for crude oil prices to drop is the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
PTAImbalance of supply and demand
For a product that is not monopolized, supply and demand are always a very important point that affects the price. Judging from the recent supply and demand situation of PTA, the negative effects are far greater than profitable.
In terms of supply, the past two years have been the cycle for the commissioning of domestic PTA devices, especially for some major polyester manufacturers. In2018< After buying a wave of orders from PTA in 2018, they also started to build their own PTA factories. . Their PTA production capacity can often be absorbed by their own polyester factories, so there is no inventory pressure, but other PTABusinesses are not so lucky.
Everyone knows about this year’s market situation. End-use textile consumer demand has shrunk again and again. Polyester factories could not bear the collective production cuts at the beginning of 7. Recently, power rationing has occurred due to hot weather. The operating rate has further declined due to factors. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, PTA’s situation is very pessimistic.
Profits have been significantly compressed
Because supply and demand are really not optimistic, and upstream PX is too strong, PTA’s profits have been relatively sluggish in recent times. . Of course, for some leading companies that have opened up the polyester industry chain, PTA’s profits are actually meaningless. They are all sold to themselves anyway, and the left hand is the right hand.
However, in any case, the current profit of PTA is not very optimistic. Under the pressure of high costs, PTA There is no space to explorebig.
Long term still depends on demand
For experienced textile people, if they want to judge the price trend of polyester yarn, it is most intuitive to look at the changes in PTA futures. The editor found out the price trend changes of polyester and PTA from 2015 to now. It cannot be said that it is It’s related, it can only be said that they are exactly the same.
This Monday’s PTA price rose sharply, which was judged by the downstream market as a periodicPTA price bottomed out, and this While the price of polyester yarn has not yet risen, weaving companies have vigorously replenished their inventories, with average production and sales approaching 300% .
In the short term, international oil prices have rebounded in the past two days, and PTA is indeed more likely to rebound. But in the long run, the downturn in the terminal market is difficult to reverse in a short time, and the long-term outlook is still bearish. But when it really falls below the 5000 point, the raw materials purchased now will probably be almost used. In this way, the weaving company’s stockpiling this time can be said to be A smart choice.
</p
