When the editor was chatting with a friend recently, he said that he couldn’t understand the current market at all and had no idea how to deal with it. This situation is not just his problem. I believe many people will have this kind of confusion. For example, this month the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as promised, but what is different from last month is that after this interest rate hike, crude oil Instead of falling, the price started to rise, which was very confusing.
PTA gets boost
As crude oil continued to rise, PTA received a boost. PTA, which was already about to fall below 5,000 points, surged up due to the boost of costs, directly returning to around 6,000 points. As of July 29, PTA futures closed at 5,954 Yuan / ton. As a good brother of polyester cost, MEG also rose and currently closed at 4,391 yuan/ton.
Last month, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the screen was full of green news. Why is this time full of red news? Mainly because this obvious rapid increase in interest rates may slow down economic growth, causing risk assets to start a surge. Coupled with the tight energy supply situation in Europe, this has stimulated bullish enthusiasm in the market. After the news was announced, oil prices changed from the previous hesitant intraday trend and rose sharply by 2%, driving domestic futures to go red across the board!
Polyester yarns are rising steadily
After the same increase in PTA, the price of polyester yarn will inevitably increase. However, the price increase this time is not much, at around 100 yuan/ton. The main effect of the overall increase in bulk commodities on polyester yarn is to maintain stability. For polyester factories, The tasks for this month have been completed, and there is no need for any major actions. After the industry’s heavy volume some time ago, some companies have completed their production and sales tasks for this month ahead of schedule.
Being able to remove inventory during the off-season of the industry means that the biggest task has been completed. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory in the polyester market is now concentrated between 21-25 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 21-27 days days, FDY inventory is around 16-23 days, while DTY inventory is around 19-24 days. As shown in the figure, you can see a big cliff. Compared with last month, polyester inventory has dropped by nearly 7 days.
The tasks for July have been completed, what will happen when August is about to begin?
Golden Nine is approaching
The biggest difference between August and July is that the traditional peak season is coming soon! At this time, weaving companies no longer focus on the upstream price. What deserves most attention now is the market situation of the terminal clothing industry. Due to the pressure of the epidemic and other factors in the first half of the year, this year’s market situation will all depend on the second half of the year.
However, it is understood that the actual orders in downstream weaving factories are still insufficient. Of course, there is an increase in small-order proofing of autumn and winter clothing orders. Although the operating rate of factories has increased slightly this week. However, the current order intake is insufficient, and the current situation in the factory is that the inventory is high, the order quantity is small, and the bidding is obvious. In the short term, the market lacks effective demand support, which is mainly reflected in the lack of hot-selling products in the market. Conventional products are still facing price wars. Although some special fabrics are slightly increased in volume, the overall market still lacks support. However, it is still in the traditional off-season, and it is generally normal for goods to be sold out.
On the whole, although market feedback has improved compared to before, the overall situation of the weaving market has not yet fully recovered. Affected by this, the production and sales of polyester factories have continued a pulse-like trend. With the increase in polyester filament prices, weaving companies The resistance is heating up, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is getting thicker, and the market has entered a dilemma. Therefore, polyester yarn prices are expected to remain dynamically stable in the short term.
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