Two days ago, the editor wanted to find a trading partner to play with, but after contacting him, he said he was unavailable. He has been very busy recently and has no time at all. I can only do it next time.
Now the order situation in the market has indeed improved. Many weaving companies that were on holiday due to high temperatures have started work, and the number of orders in the market has also increased. However, at the same time, the editor also discovered something strange. Well, there are clearly a lot of orders, so why aren’t the dyeing factories busy?
The operating rate has increased, but not completely
What is the current market like? Let’s take a look at the data first. The data is relatively more intuitive.
According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, 9month2dayThe dye vat operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiangregional printing and dyeing factories rebounded slightly to 53.3%,The printing and dyeing operating rate of the previous week is 49.7%.
In terms of loom operation rate, 9month2 Japan’s loom operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions span>64.2%, while the activation rate last week was 60.4%. It can be seen that although the operating rate of looms has increased, it has not completely improved. There are still a large number of weaving companies that still maintain low operating rates, and some have not even started operations.
In terms of gray fabric inventory, the current average gray fabric inventory of weaving enterprises is around 36 days, which is slightly lower than before.
Judging from the above data, both the printing and dyeing operation rate and the loom operation rate have increased, but the rate of increase is relatively limited, and there is no such thing as the imagined “one arrow piercing the clouds, thousands of troops” “Come and meet me” kind of situation, orders are pouring in like a flood, and all the machines are full at once.
There are orders, but not everyone has them
As far as the editor knows, the current order situation has indeed improved compared to 8. The seasonal demand for textiles still exists, and the demand for foreign trade seems to be higher than the domestic demand. a little better. Some textile companies are able to receive large orders worth millions of meters, while some companies receive orders that are too late to complete.
But another aspect of the increase in the number of orders is that the two-level differentiation has become more serious than before.
Textile companies that are doing well have a steady stream of orders, and the only thing that limits the number of orders he receives is his production capacity. During the visit, some textile bosses said that this year’s market is even better than in the past few years.
However, there are still a large number of textile companies that cannot receive orders at all. For them, the market in 9 months and8< There is basically no difference between months and months. The goods cannot be sold after production, so the factory can only be kept closed.
The imbalance between supply and demand brings sequelae
Due to the impact of factors such as the epidemic and the shrinking international economy, the demand for textiles in the market has shrunk extremely. Coupled with the existing excess production capacity, the imbalance between supply and demand has become increasingly obvious.
No one can really predict how big the demand will be in the future. They only know that the economic situation will continue to deteriorate, so both upstream and downstream companies adopt a cautious attitude. Retailers are cautious, brand owners are also cautious, clothing factories and weaving factories are also cautious, and the result of caution is that no one dares to stock up on goods or place orders.
This mentality has actually changed the ordering logic of the industry chain.
The order logic has changed
The past logic was to estimate demand and then supply. When supply and demand can basically maintain a balance, merchants think more about seizing the market, so terminals will distribute a large number of goods in advance, and weaving companies will expand production to dilute costs, in order to reduce costs and gain greater competitiveness.
The current logic has become that demand drives supply, demand is shrinking, and seizing the market is no longer the first priority for businesses. Cash flow means the survival of the company, so it is better to stock less goods. The same is true for the downstream transmission. Weaving companies dare not keep too much inventory and instead choose to reduce the operating rate of looms.
This change in logic will lead to a reduction in the number of textiles circulating in the market, which may cause a reversal of supply and demand at some point. Dyeing factories may queue up, creating the illusion of a hot market, but this situation is difficult to continue. , textile people should keep a clear mind.
Editor’s note: 9The orders in the market have indeed improved since September, but the polarization between the two levels is serious. Companies that have no orders still have no orders, and downstream companies are still cautious in placing orders. , causing the dyeing factory operating rate to still be low. This is because the logic of market orders has changed after the supply and demand imbalance.
</p
