After the beginning of the new year, the editor chatted with several cloth bosses to understand their views on this year’s market. Their views were relatively consistent. External demand may not be as expected, but domestic demand may fill this gap.
Then the question is, how does domestic demand come about?
It’s hard to make money from foreign trade now
It is said that foreign trade, investment, and consumption are the troika of China’s economic development. However, since the reform and opening up, the driving force of foreign trade has been said to exceed the consumption side most of the time. Foreign trade is really very profitable. It is easy to pay and the profits are high. Some workers have gradually become bosses through foreign trade, and then they have become bigger and stronger step by step from small bosses to big bosses.
Even in 2020 and 2021, the domestic consumer market has been weakened due to the epidemic, but along with strong foreign trade pull, China’s economic growth is still guaranteed.
But as time goes by, the situation has changed: the textile industry in Southeast Asia has developed, and orders have been transferred; the economies of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have deteriorated, and landlords have no more food left; the international situation has become tense and uncertain Political risks have increased.
This has led to a problem. The demand for foreign trade has shrunk, and overseas purchasers who originally had deep pockets have begun to worry. Coupled with the involution of domestic suppliers, foreign trade money is not so easy to make.
The gap in foreign trade needs to be filled by domestic demand, but how can domestic demand be supported?
If money is not tight, who wouldn’t want to buy it?
In fact, our country’s economy will encounter many challenges in 2023.
From the data point of view, 2022The growth rate of total national deposits in our country will accelerate, and it will increase more than 2021 year-on-year8 trillion yuan, but the residents’ leverage ratio is already very high. In other words, everyone is under great pressure in life and is unwilling to spend money. They would rather save money in the bank to resist unknown risks.
A fabric merchant said: “The high-end consumer market for domestic textiles is growing rapidly now, but no matter how fast it grows, its proportion in the overall textiles is still relatively limited. If the demand for the most common clothing does not rise, the market will It’s not getting better. Compared with some products that are just needed, clothing is an improvement demand in a sense. If money is tight, the old clothes from the past can be worn for two more years.”
Therefore, the issue of domestic demand is ultimately an issue of the income of ordinary people. When everyone has money, they will naturally spend it, and the market will be revitalized.
And this is related to some things that textile people are more concerned about recently.
The temptation to go home
“We have always had orders on hand, and the machines are now running at maximum capacity. However, because the workers are not fully recruited, the operating rate can only reach 8%.” A family The person in charge of the fabric company said.
He continued: “The salary here is 7000, and the salary near their hometown is 6000, and the cost of living is divided again. , workers prefer to work close to home.”
“Labour shortage” is a “reserved program” for textile companies after the beginning of each year, but this year’s “labor shortage” is somewhat unusual. After many skilled workers return to their hometowns during the Chinese New Year, they will stay in their hometowns in the new year. This creates a shortage of workers for this group of workers.
In recent years, the production capacity of peripheral water-jet looms has grown rapidly. In the past, workers from the central and western regions came to the Yangtze River Delta to work in order to increase their income. One month’s income here can be equal to two or three months in their hometown. Although the work is intensive, But being able to make money is the biggest advantage, but now the location advantage of the southeastern coastal areas can no longer bring about a considerable wage difference. Now workers are working near their hometowns.Although there are still some gaps in income compared with those in the Yangtze River Delta, these gaps are easily offset by the cost of living and the advantages of being “close to home”.
Dare to bet on domestic demand, here is the confidence
If we want to boost domestic demand, we need to put money in the hands of ordinary people. In the past, although working outside could make money, the workers were not in their hometowns, and their lives and consumption remained in the place where they worked. The hometown itself lacked economic vitality.
But with the relocation of industries, workers can find suitable jobs at home without having to leave their hometowns. The cost of living has also been reduced, which naturally gives them more confidence to consume.
The textile industry is the most typical labor-intensive industry, and almost all industrial transfers are initiated by the textile industry. In addition to the light industry represented by the textile industry, more and more heavy industry production capacity such as chemicals and automobiles are being built in China’s inland areas, and the number of jobs they can provide is also increasing year by year.
And these are the real confidence for textile people to bet on the growth of domestic demand in the future.
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