Nylon, which was one of the “suffering brothers” among textile raw materials last year, seems to be having a tough time this year. Last month, it was predicted that Jin Sanneng would have a surge, but the reality is completely different.
The prices of nylon yarn are POY 16,100 yuan/ton, FDY 16,800 yuan/ton, and DTY 18,300 yuan/ton. Since March, only FDY and POY prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton.
The increase of tens of yuan in Jinsan has forced nylon manufacturers to ponder whether it is a demand problem or a cost problem?
The cost side has gone up and down and returned to its original position.
Around the Spring Festival, due to the market’s optimism about the recovery of demand after the epidemic, and the maintenance of some factory equipment, the spot market price of CPL rose slightly from 11,150 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton for acceptance delivery. Later, due to the recovery of demand being less than expected, the price of raw materials was adjusted. , the market adjusted to about 12,200 yuan/ton. After the start of construction, the price rose and fell and basically stabilized at 12,500 yuan/ton. It has basically remained in a relatively stable state since the increase at the end of February.
At present, the price of caprolactam will basically not rise or fall sharply. The rebound of the market from last year to the present is achieved firstly through the reduction of factory production, and secondly through the increase in raw material prices. However, the price of pure benzene, which is the upstream of caprolactam, has continued to rise recently. Since the beginning of the year, the price has increased by nearly 200 yuan/ton. The current price of pure benzene is 7,320 yuan/ton.
Judging from the current fundamentals of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene is expected to increase from March to May, and the external price may remain high. The supply of imported goods arriving at the port will decrease and port inventory is expected to decline. The overall confidence in the pure benzene market is relatively strong, and the price of pure benzene in the later period There is still room for a slight rebound.
The supply of caprolactam itself has increased overall recently, especially in the north where the spot supply is relatively abundant. The supply of caprolactam in the north has increased overall. The caprolactam market is both long and short, and the strong pure benzene provides cost support to the market. However, due to the increase in spot supply, it is naturally difficult for nylon yarn prices to rise.
In addition to the cost side, demand has also caused greater obstacles to the rise of nylon yarn.
Exports are poor and foreign trade is sluggish
Entering March, the overall profitability of domestic nylon yarn manufacturers has always maintained a loss. The reason for the long-term poor profitability is mainly due to the weakness of the demand side. Upstream pure benzene and caprolactam are fluctuating at high levels, and the pressure on nylon companies’ production costs remains unabated. Currently, as terminal demand gradually recovers, relying solely on rigid demand support, the inventories of spinning companies and downstream gray fabric merchants remain high. Although the main force is digesting inventory, the effect is Not obvious. However, as downstream receipts are weak, nylon yarn production inventories have not been significantly digested. In the first half of the year, domestic trade support was limited, and most industry players lacked confidence, mostly due to the downturn in foreign trade orders.
Although the liberalization of policies has brought a lot of orders to textile companies, there is still a long way to go before demand is fully restored. The demand side has greatly affected the sales of nylon yarn. Unlike the amount of spandex used in fabrics, nylon products Almost all of them are produced from nylon yarns. The relationship between them is that one prospers and the other loses, which makes it very difficult for the price of nylon yarns to rise.
The current market is a hot-selling moment for imitation silk fabrics. Although nylon products also involve spring and summer sun protection clothing, the demand is not as abundant as that of autumn and winter down jacket fabrics. Naturally, textile bosses will not blindly stock up on goods, but still maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Maybe there will be a wave of price increases coming in late March.
From a macro perspective, the future of nylon yarn is still relatively unclear. Sino-US relations and the Russia-Ukraine war are uncertain factors. The future rise and fall cannot be blindly determined.
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