“In February, the dyeing factory is very busy. There can be 100 ten thousand meters of gray fabric entering the warehouse every day. Goods need to be queued up, but soon after March month, the number of gray fabrics entering the warehouse is significantly reduced, only 50 more Ten thousand meters.”A salesperson from a dyeing factory told the editor.
2 In the month of 2, we mainly dealt with orders received before the Chinese New Year. However, after that wave of orders was completed, subsequent orders could not be received.
March and April are the traditional peak seasons for the textile market, but this year has just entered MarchMarch , the market has not become as hot as in previous years, and some “habits” of the textile market have changed.
Conventional old model
In the past, the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” were often used by textile companies to prepare goods for the spring and summer markets. Because clothing has strong seasonality and shipping times are basically stable, most people stock up in advance. Moreover, the saying “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” is an optimal solution that textile companies have tried out after years of trial and error, and has finally been integrated into everyone’s trading habits.
But everything is constantly changing. Now it is a “big change that has not happened in a century.” Changing a stocking habit is really not an unacceptable thing.
New phenomenon that does not match the old pattern
The current situation has changed. Due to tight capital chains and lack of confidence in the global economic and political situation, the willingness of upstream garment companies and traders to prepare goods in advance has become smaller.
The rapid development of my country’s modern textile industry will not occur until after the reform and opening up, and foreign trade accounts for the vast majority. Foreign trade is basically transported by sea, and the time on the road is not short. This must not be planned a few months in advance. Only after the order is placed can the products be delivered to overseas consumers during the peak consumption season. But this year’s textile foreign trade, everyone knows that various foreign trade orders are skipped and orders are cut, not only China, but even Vietnam, which has been booming in the past two years, will have its textile exports enter 2023 Not good anymore.
Of course, another reason is that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, many countries were in short supply of U.S. dollars. It was difficult for foreign trade merchants to exchange for U.S. dollars, and they were unable to buy Chinese products.
This has led to fabric and weaving companies becoming more conservative and not letting go of hawks when they see rabbits.
But polyester companies are very anxious, perhaps due to KPI pressure or other reasons, and are very persistent in raising prices. As soon as there is any sign of trouble, tentative price increases will begin. 2023 There have been several waves since the Spring Festival. However, textile companies said: I know you are in a hurry, but don’t worry about it yet. urgent. No matter how you try, I won’t buy it anyway. I have been back and forth several times. Now March is here and a new wave of back and forth has begun again.
“Gold, Three, Silver and Four” no longer exist
The current situation of textile enterprises “making goods upon order” is very likely that the “gold, three, silver and four” will no longer exist in the future. After all, production is determined according to consumption. March and April are the peak production seasons, but July and August are the peak consumption seasons.
Especially in the past two years, live streaming and online shopping have become so popular. There are more and more small orders of a few hundred meters or several kilometers. The traditional textile production model cannot adapt to this kind of small batch and fast delivery. Rhythm of orders, so now there are more and more supermarkets with ready-made fabrics, and there are more and more quick-turn orders. This new model spreads the orders that originally required centralized production to the four seasons of the year and decomposes them into independent small orders. Then the time of these orders basically coincides with the time of demand, which is equivalent to giving the traditional peak season to ” atomized”.
But consumers don’t care about this. As long as things are of high quality and low price, and the price remains the same and the quality is stable, clothing can have more changes and the styles will of course be better, and this is also stimulating to a certain extent. demand.
Of course, Kuaiyi has advantages in foreign trade.�It’s not so obvious. After all, it takes a long time on the road, but isn’t foreign trade sluggish recently? 2023The foreign trade export data for the first two months are out, and the decline in textile exports is quite obvious.
Picture source:China Textile International Capacity Cooperation Enterprise Alliance
Judging from the current situation, both upstream and downstream are unwilling to stock up in advance and are waiting for the demand to come before starting work. A lot of demand in the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” market will be delayed. In the past, March, April, September and October were the peak seasons, and July and August were the off-seasons. In the future, this may no longer be the case. Orders will come at any time according to demand. Instead, “618“, The impact of online shopping festivals like “Double11” will be growing.
In addition, in view of the current situation where many overseas countries are in need but cannot exchange U.S. dollars, there are always more solutions than difficulties. We can’t find a solution in a short time, but we cannot underestimate people’s subjective initiative. If you can’t use U.S. dollars, you can use RMB. This demand may also explode after a period of time.
In general, the peak seasons of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” and the spot quick reaction are complementary. Either one will offset or rise, but in the future, relying on the peak season will “not open for three years, but it will eat after opening.” The situation of “three years” should be gone. This year is the most drastic year of this change. There are a lot of mismatches and there may be some special business opportunities.
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