Just now! Crude oil collapsed! The situation on the crude oil side in the past two days is not optimistic. After the second week of March, the price of crude oil plummeted. As of the date of publication, it has been falling for five consecutive days. On March 15, overnight crude oil collapsed. Brent crude oil plunged 4.11%, down $3.32/barrel to $77.45/barrel!
Crude oil faces oversupply
On March 14, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in its monthly oil report that global oil may experience a slight oversupply in the next quarter due to lower seasonal demand, and lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand in 2023 by an average of 200,000 tons per day. , the organization’s current crude oil production is approximately 28.92 million barrels per day, which is approximately 300,000 barrels higher than the expected daily production in the second quarter. Global oil consumption typically slows at the end of winter and the beginning of summer.
As soon as the news was released, the price of crude oil collapsed overnight. This caused the entire polyester industry chain to turn green. The PTA side continued to overhaul and control inventory, and the price could only fall. As of the date of publication, PTA futures were trading at 5544. A decrease of 68% from yesterday, a decrease of 1.2%. Once PTA declines, it will directly affect the raw material end of the textile industry. The price of polyester yarn has not been very good recently.
Polyester faces cost collapse
The recent pressure on polyester filament can be said to be from all directions. Looking at it, the inventory pressure is quite high, but looking down, the demand has not fully recovered. Originally, Jinsan had been rising for a while with the cost side, but crude oil could not hold up for a few days. It has dropped, but the previous declines in crude oil did not particularly affect the mentality. After all, PTA maintenance can still give a certain degree of confidence. But now times have changed and the price of crude oil has collapsed, falling to 80 overnight. Who can give this confidence? ?
In recent years, the price of polyester filament has been out of control. The power of life and death is not in your hands. Even if the polyester factory has some ideas, downstream buyers will not buy it. The inertial thinking of just needing to purchase will last for a while. It cannot be changed yet, and promotions and price increases will not have much impact on the pace of downstream weaving companies. The current price drop for polyester factories will only put themselves into a more passive situation – low prices and high inventory.
Market faces sluggish peak season
But the flowers are blooming at both ends. Low prices and high inventory are not a direct indication of a phenomenon. The peak season is really not prosperous. As long as the current peak season of the textile market has its due market, then the price reduction of polyester yarn will definitely attract Many weaving companies are purchasing to replenish their positions. After all, the peak season means that the consumption of raw materials will increase significantly, so low-priced raw materials are very attractive to weaving companies.
Looking at it now, the average production and sales rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 33.2% and 45.6% respectively on the two days when the price dropped. The production and sales on the two days were not particularly ideal. This proves that the weaving companies mentioned above still have the inertial thinking of just needing to purchase. Behind this kind of thinking is that the market is still not very clear. Even if expectations increase, the reality is still weak. The current operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still only 70% and less than 80%.
To sum up, due to the insufficient demand in the textile market, the cost end is facing a collapse, the supply and demand dilemma of polyester filament, and its own inventory has not been well digested, it is expected that in the short term, the price of polyester filament will be weak. , but it is worth noting that by the end of the month, polyester factories may target the purchasing nodes of weaving companies to inflate prices to achieve the purpose of stimulating production and sales.
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