Recently,Silicon Valley Bank and other U.S. banks have collapsed one after another, and then Credit Suisse has experienced a crisis, and “black swans” have followed one after another. One of them has aroused people’s memory of the financial crisis in 2008. What is the situation? Has the financial crisis already come? Will it have any impact on textile companies engaged in foreign trade?
Cause
The financial crisis of 2008 is also known as the “subprime mortgage crisis”. The main reason was the real estate bubble and the excessive issuance of subprime loans by financial institutions, which turned many banks’ collateral into junk assets.
But after the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States strengthened supervision and bank investments became more prudent. The main blame for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank this time was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. Silicon Valley Bank was very prudent in its investments and bought a lot of U.S. Treasury bonds. It stands to reason that U.S. debt is tied to U.S. credit and has high liquidity. However, the U.S. dollar has been raising interest rates crazily recently. If you want to sell government bonds, you must make up for the difference between the past and current government bond interest rates. For example, originally 1%, now4%, then the buyer needs to pay an interest rate difference of 3% per year in order not to lose money. Some time ago, American technology companies laid off a large number of employees, and life itself was difficult. It was when cash was needed. At this time, Silicon Valley Bank broke out unfavorable news, triggering a run and eventually bankruptcy.
And Credit Suisse invested in Silicon Valley Bank. Coupled with its own poor operating conditions, the negative effects were compounded, resulting in a crisis.
In fact, the mentality is the same as that of some textile factories. The factory’s production capacity is idle, so they make some conventional products such as polyester taffeta and pongee, thinking that they can be sold in the future. Under normal circumstances, there is no problem, but if one day the capital turnover is no longer available and cash is needed, the price can only be reduced and the goods sold. But if the company happens to be carrying a loan at this time, and the lender feels that the management is poor and wants to withdraw the loan due to risk management, few companies can survive this situation.
When triangular debt was still very serious more than ten years ago, if a company went bankrupt, it would eventually involve a series of companies in crisis.
Development
Banks collapsed one after another. People and businesses in the United States panicked and started queuing up to withdraw money. A run was about to happen. In order to have sufficient cash flow, banks have to sell U.S. debt. If they lose money, they will lose money. It is better than going bankrupt.
But this doesn’t work. Credit will be hit if U.S. debt is sold off, and banks can’t bear the run, so they choose to take over. The bank can use U.S. debt as collateral to lend an equal amount of U.S. dollars and return it after one year, which is equivalent to giving Banks cross a bridge to reassure depositors, but in essence they are still printing money.
After the crisis at Credit Suisse Group, the Swiss authorities vowed to protect it and inject liquidity if necessary.
Impact
The successive bankruptcies of U.S. banks have just subsided, and Credit Suisse Group has problems again. It can be said that one wave has arisen after another, which has triggered various chain reactions.
Exchange rate
The first impact is naturally the exchange rate,3months15days, The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen to 6.868, Not long ago, there was still RMB on the market that was about to break 7 News.
Most textile companies don’t like exchange rate fluctuations. Although many companies made a fortune last year because of the exchange rate, it is a small probability event after all. However, this is not based on human will. We can only be optimistic and be mentally prepared. Expected.
Crude oil, raw materials
As soon as the bank collapse occurred, international oil prices plummeted, Credit Suisse Group was in crisis, and crude oil once fell by 8%.
When crude oil fell, the prices of other textile raw materials were naturally unaffected, and they also fell all the way, 3month15 On 16, many polyester factories lowered the price of polyester yarn. The current reduction range is 200-300 yuan/tons.
Market risk
Although the impact of exchange rates and raw materials is large, it is not fatal in general. For textile companies, the more important thing is the “black swan” that may come at any time. Modern finance is all about confidence, and this is what is most lacking in the market now.
In the short term, in order to cope with the crisis, ordinary people will be more frugal and afraid to consume. At the national level, many countries are now trying to reduce foreign exchange expenditures to cope with the subsequent impact, resulting in overseas traders not having enough U.S. dollars to purchase goods from China.
In the long runIn the long run, major global financial institutions are now interconnected with each other. If one company has a problem, the consequences may be 10homes,20homes and even more. Once a large number of crises occur in these institutions, problems may arise in buyers, brands, logistics, consumption, etc. of textile foreign trade, and the market may enter a downturn that will last for several years until a new order is reestablished. In the process of rebuilding order, what textile people can see are frequent changes. At this time, the learning ability of individuals and enterprises becomes particularly important.
Since 2022, the word economic crisis has returned to the public’s view, and the recent series of bank thunderstorms have deepened this premonition. Faced with this kind of crisis, as long as you can survive, you can almost complete your transformation in the end.
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