Introduction: The current supply of polyester filament is still at a high level during the year. Supported by low inventories of small and medium-sized enterprises and aggregation costs, the mainstream quotation price of polyester filament has increased recently. Taking into account the downstream inventory procurement cycle at the end of the month, today’s factory inventory “price increase promotion” shipments As expected, as of 6:00 pm on December 25, the production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were between 100% and 200%, and the performance was not as good as expected. Under the expectation of weakening demand in the future, factories may mainly ship goods at low prices. Before the end of the month, the market Weak shock.
The current weekly domestic polyester filament output is 682,800 tons, the average domestic polyester filament capacity utilization rate is 84.5%, and the overall supply is at a high level during the year. The overall supply of direct-spun polyester filament has declined in a narrow range recently. Hong Kong’s equipment is undergoing maintenance. Domestic melt-spun polyester filament output has declined slightly compared with last week. In addition, the supply of domestic polyester filament industry may continue to decline in the near future. Although Hengyi The Haining plant plans to restart, but the Yifeng and Guowang plants plan to undergo maintenance. The specifications are mostly concentrated in cationic, matting and other products. The decline is relatively limited, and the supply is under pressure.
As of December 25, domestic direct-spun polyester filament POY150D/48F was quoted at 7,550 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F was quoted at 8,150 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F was quoted at 8,850 yuan/ton. Judging from the price trend of POY150D/48F in the past five years , the price of polyester filament will not fluctuate much in 2023, and in November it will be close to the low price of 7,200 yuan/ton for the year. Since December 20, supported by various factors such as Red Sea shipping and domestic transportation, domestic polyester costs have strengthened by about 200 yuan/ton. tons, and the offer price of polyester filament has moved up. However, after the price of polyester filament has risen, the demand has become rigid, and shipping companies have made more deposits to make profits. After taking into account the downstream procurement cycle at the end of the month and the upward shift in costs, mainstream factories in the market today have processing fees. Faced with the squeeze, downstream stocks concentrated on replenishing expectations and offered profits for shipments. However, as of 6 p.m., companies had limited room for profit concessions, and mainstream factory production and sales were mostly between 100% and 200%.
At present, many downstream prices are more sensitive. It is currently a key node for downstream production reduction and maintenance during the Spring Festival. The future orders of downstream are expected to be weak. If the price concession of raw materials is not in place, downstream weaving and texturing may consider cutting production and load in advance in January. The demand for raw materials is expected decline, but the Spring Festival load of polyester factories is often higher than that of downstream weaving and texturing. With the accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the current polyester filament factories may consider giving narrow profits to downstream, so combined with the current high polyester filament supply and relatively stable inventory Under such circumstances, polyester filament yarn may be expected to be weak at the end of December, and the price may not be much different from the low price in November. Market fluctuations are mainly shocks, and it is recommended that downstream users mainly stock up rigidly.
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