On the evening of May 19, the National Standing Committee meeting once again issued a call after seven days to ensure supply and stable prices of commodities and curb unreasonable price increases. Relevant departments have taken action one after another to “cool down” the rising trend of commodity prices. Policies have been intensively vocal for many days to effectively respond to excessive price increases. A series of response measures have achieved remarkable results, with nearly a hundred commodities falling in response.
Drawed down by the collapse of domestic commodities, polyester raw materials are also difficult to survive. On May 20, domestic crude oil futures once fell by more than 5.12%, PTA fell by as much as 3.27%, and B2 fell by as much as 3.27%. Alcohol fell by as much as 2.71%, and staple fiber fell by as much as 3.50%.
It is understood that the reason for the decline in the price of some raw materials is related to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the resistance of high prices by downstream terminals. In addition, from “straight up to the sky” to “suddenly falling”, the sharp turn in the raw material market cannot be separated from the supervision of relevant departments. All these indicate that the current regulatory authorities are firmly determined to curb the excessive rise of bulk commodities.
PTA market analysis
Cost side: oil prices are blocked from rising, The price of naphtha is weak, and the atmosphere for negotiation in the PX market is insufficient; a large factory in Shandong has released information on equipment maintenance, and the focus of glacial acetic acid is temporarily stable, and the downstream industry just needs to follow up.
Supply side: Equipment is restarting one after another, and the PTA operating rate is expected to return to around 85%. Pay attention to whether there will be follow-up maintenance. At present, Sichuan Energy Investment has 1 million tons/year, Zhongtai Petrochemical has 1.2 million tons/year, Yizheng Chemical Fiber has 350,000 tons/year, Xinfengming Line 2 has restarted 2.5 million tons/year, and Hengli Line 5 currently has 250 tons/year. The specific maintenance time of the 10,000 tons/year and 2.5 million tons/year PTA units of Xinfengming Line 2 is unknown. Pay attention to whether the maintenance will be carried out in June; if not, the pressure on the supply side will increase significantly.
Demand side: Polyester production and sales are light in the off-season, factories have plans to reduce production, and PTA demand is weakening. May to early August is the traditional off-season for terminals. Currently, slicing is experiencing losses. At the same time, the inventory pressure of some products such as polyester filament DTY is high. Recently, some factories have also announced maintenance plans. The polyester operating rate may drop to around 90% in the second half of the month. Considering that the polyester production capacity base is also constantly increasing, the rigid demand for PTA will weaken slightly.
Ethylene glycol market analysis
Supply side: April B The import volume of glycol was 730,000 tons, which was basically the same as that in March. However, according to the operation dynamics of overseas equipment, it is a high probability that the import volume of ethylene glycol will rebound in the later period. Domestically, it was previously heard that the start-up time of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s ethylene glycol unit (800,000 tons/year on Line 1) was tentatively postponed by one week due to problems with the oxygen device. The unit was originally scheduled to start operation at the end of May, but it may be postponed to early June. In addition, two sets of 200,000 tons/year coal-to-ethylene glycol units in Yongcheng, Henan were originally planned to be shut down for maintenance in late May, but the maintenance is currently postponed due to production efficiency issues of related products. The specific maintenance time is to be determined. Considering the size of production capacity, there is currently little pressure on the supply side in May, and the industry’s capacity supply pressure has been postponed to June.
Demand side: Polyester production and sales are slow in the off-season, factories have plans to reduce production, and the demand for ethylene glycol is weakening. May to early August is the traditional off-season for terminals. Currently, slicing is experiencing losses. At the same time, the inventory pressure of some products such as polyester filament DTY is high. Recently, some factories have also announced maintenance plans. The polyester operating rate may drop to around 90% in the second half of the month. Considering that the polyester production capacity base is also constantly increasing, the rigid demand for ethylene glycol will weaken slightly.
Polyester staple fiber market analysis
Cost side: crude oil fluctuates at high levels , PTA and ethylene glycol fluctuate, downstream polyester maintenance increases, demand weakens, PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate and weaken.
Supply side: Due to the accumulation of polyester staple fiber enterprise inventory and the mid-year maintenance plan of some staple fiber equipment, the spot market supply is expected to decrease. Currently, a factory in Jiangsu has shut down a short fiber production capacity of 280,000 tons for maintenance. A short fiber production capacity of 250,000 tons in Fujian and a short fiber production capacity of 30,000 tons in Ningbo have been shut down for maintenance. Another factory in Ningbo has reduced production by 200 tons from the beginning of May. /day, a factory in Sichuan plans to reduce production by 2,000 tons in May, and the current operating rate of the short fiber industry has dropped to 86.94%.
Demand side: At present, downstream polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn companies have good processing fee space, the operating rate has been relatively stable, and the raw material inventory of yarn companies is neutral, and there is a certain degree of rigid demand support in the market. However, due to the recent decline in raw materials, the trading atmosphere in the pure polyester yarn market has been light, yarn companies have accumulated inventory, have strong willingness to ship, and expanded discounts. In terms of domestic trade, intermediary traders have sufficient stocks, and the supply of goods is more resistant after the increase, due to the high number of small orders. In terms of foreign trade, the number of polyester staple fiber export orders is limited due to various factors such as sea freight rates remaining high and the continued spread of overseas epidemics.
This period of time is indeed a bit difficult for textile bosses. The previous promotion did not achieve obvious results. The epidemic abroad continues to ferment, and foreign trade is more or less hindered. , as the overall domestic economy has recovered fairly well, but the terminal textile and clothing industry has not improved significantly, and it is undoubtedly difficult to reverse the current market situation. </p
