After May Day, the market price of polyester bottle flakes has been mixed, with the overall cost-end market showing an upward trend and the overall downstream demand performance weak. However, as the weather gradually warms up and the demand from downstream soft drink factories increases, will it be able to drive the market price of bottle flakes to further rise?
In May, the market price of polyester bottle flakes rose first and then fell. After May Day, international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the market prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol. Supported by favorable costs, the market price of polyester bottle flakes showed an upward trend.
According to the Baichuan polyester bottle flakes price index, on May 10, the market price of polyester bottle flakes rose to the highest point of this month, 6,450 yuan/ton. After that, dragged down by the decline in international crude oil prices, coupled with the increase in supply of PTA and ethylene glycol, the market price fell accordingly, with insufficient cost-side support and weak downstream demand. The price of bottle flakes fell sharply, with the lowest price falling to 6,275 yuan. / ton, a decrease of 175 yuan / ton from the highest price this month, a decrease of 2.71%.
As of May 19, the mainstream reference price of the polyester bottle flake market in East China is 6,325 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference price of the water bottle material market in South China is 6,375 yuan/ton. Most Mainstream factories are experiencing tight shipments and are strongly willing to raise prices. However, the soft drink market is about to usher in the peak season, which may lead to an improvement in the price of bottle flakes. The details will depend on the downstream demand and the increase in orders.
The main factors affecting the price of bottle tablets are as follows:
1. Cost aspect
PTA and ethylene glycol are the upstream products of polyester bottle flakes, and their price fluctuations directly affect the overall price trend of polyester bottle flakes. At present, the center of gravity of the PTA market is operating in a volatile range. The average price of PTA in East China is 4,745 yuan/ton. At present, early maintenance equipment has been opened one after another, which provides strong support for the raw material side of bottle flakes. The market price of ethylene glycol continues to rise strongly. The average market price in East China is 5,102 yuan/ton. The prices of crude oil and coal also continue to rise. Boosted by this, the price of ethylene glycol has been running at a high level. The support of the raw material ends on the polyester bottle pieces is relatively strong.
2. Supply
At present, there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand for polyester bottle flakes. The main reason is that the low-price stocking up in 2020 has seriously overdrawn the future demand of the polyester bottle flakes market. Although the polyester bottle flakes market has experienced several rising prices this year, boosted by the surge in crude oil and cost markets, traders and downstream companies have abundant stocks and are more resistant to supply after the increase. Buying enthusiasm is not good, and bottle flakes are in circulation. Slowly, combined with the commissioning of Zhuhai China Resources Phase III, the overall inventory of bottle flakes is at a high level.
3. Demand
Since May, although polyester raw materials have been in shock However, under the pressure of high social inventory, polyester bottle flakes showed a trend that was contrary to the trend of raw materials, and the price continued to fall, and the cash flow was once compressed to a loss state. It can be seen that there is still no obvious warming trend in terminal demand.
Taken together, the cost of polyester bottle flakes may continue to rise, and PTA and ethylene glycol continue to fluctuate at high levels trend, the bottle flakes market is still supported; at this time in previous years, soft drink factories will usher in the peak sales season, but the current average profit of the bottle flakes industry continues to be in a state of loss, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in downstream demand. Some traders have five The performance of the monthly contract is not optimistic.
Although mainstream factory delivery of bottle flakes is still tight at present, the actual social inventory of polyester bottle flakes is still consumed slowly, suppressing the operation of the bottle flakes market, and some factories may have low prices. Shipping conditions.
It is expected that the market for polyester bottle flakes will mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term. In the long term, as the weather gets warmer, various plastic drinks begin to sell well in summer. Driven by the expansion of consumption, polyester bottle flakes may usher in a peak market season. If market demand improves significantly and inventories are digested, then The bottle tablet market will usher in a dawn. </p
