The epidemic seems to have become a “big test” for the global manufacturing and shipping industries.
Currently, many countries in Southeast Asia are experiencing an epidemic, and factory shutdowns, shipping congestion, and prices without cabins are becoming more and more serious! Some people in the industry predict that the industrial chain may return to China, the demand for bulk commodity exports may increase, and freight prices will rise again!
01. Route freight rates doubled in half a month, and the Indian epidemic pushed up route freight rates
According to CCTV During the investigation, the reporter learned that the space on routes from Guangzhou and Shenzhen to India and Pakistan continues to be tight. Air freight prices have increased by more than 100% in half a month, and sea freight prices have also risen by more than 30%.
Since late April this year, especially since May, the price of the India-Pakistan route in the Guangzhou-Shenzhen region has changed significantly, and the price has reached a record high. The main reason for the change is the surge in shipments.
Since March last year, freight rates throughout Southeast Asia, including India, have roughly tripled. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in India in April this year, the price on this route in India has increased by about 3 to 4 times. There was a price peak in May. From the original price of about 20 yuan per kilogram, it has now risen to 40 yuan per kilogram. price around.
In order to cope with the surge in market demand, the person in charge of an aviation service company in Guangzhou has recently been busy deploying more cargo planes to fly to India and Pakistan. He said that the current India-Pakistan route is quoted once a day, and many The cargo owner no longer looks at the price, but first books the space to ensure the space. After April 20th, prices in India and Pakistan are more difficult to control. The price is one per day, which is called “seafood price” in the industry. If you don’t want the cabin, someone will take it immediately. The peak price is basically around 60 yuan, which is three times the price before the epidemic, or even higher.
The price of shipping is also rising. On May 21, the China Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index released by the Shanghai Freight Exchange was 2216.63 points, an increase of 3.9% from last week.
Shanghai’s export container comprehensive freight index was 3432.50 points, an increase of 2.7% from the previous period.
Industry insiders said that a wave of growth began at the end of April, and reached a growth peak of 30%-50% in the first half of May. The original price of a container was more than 2,000 US dollars, and it rose to more than 4,000 US dollars at its peak. A cabinet.
02. The Quanzhou container fleet shouted to the shipping company: If the freight rate is not increased, work will be suspended!
On May 27, the Shishi Logistics Industry Association issued a letter to shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping, Antong, Zhonggu, Tradewind, Yuzhou Shipping, Gaogang Shipping, and Ningbo Ocean Shipping that call at Quanzhou Port. The “Notification Letter” stated:
The association has received reports from all container fleets in Quanzhou Port that due to rising costs, the fleet operations are unsustainable. In the absence of an increase in existing freight rates, all fleets have reported to the association Preparations will be made for shutdown on June 3, 2021.
This time the Quanzhou Container Fleet came to the shipping company through the association to protect its own rights and interests. Every year, the shipping company and the fleet will negotiate a long-term contract price based on various factors. No matter what the market conditions are that year, the “long-term contract price” will be implemented.
However, as shipping companies’ freight rates continue to rise, shipping companies are making a lot of money, but fleets can still only get a share of the fixed price.
Looking at the market outlook, a new round of freight price storm is unstoppable!
Currently, the shipping container freight index from Asia to Europe has set a new historical record. The index freight rate exceeded US$10,000 for the first time, and the actual freight rate has reached the ceiling and is close to US$15,000.
03. The industrial chain may return to China
Some institutions predict that after the outbreak of the epidemic in India, Vietnam, Taiwan, China and other regions, some mid-to-high-end manufacturing The industry may return to China again.
In fact, we can get a glimpse of this from China’s export data this year. Thanks to the stability of the manufacturing industry, China’s exports continued to exceed expectations from January to April 2021, and its global share grew against the trend. According to data disclosed by the Ministry of Commerce, China’s export growth rate (in US dollars) reached 32.3% year-on-year in April, further rising from the first quarter. China’s export share in the world has further expanded, far exceeding market expectations.
The outbreak of the epidemic in India and other Southeast Asian countries has affected local production and manufacturing, and the world’s dependence on China’s consumer goods production has increased.
While Southeast Asia is plagued by the epidemic, China’s manufacturing industry has been in a state of steady expansion.
In addition, according to a McKinsey survey, before the epidemic, no purchaser planned to increase purchases from China in the next five years. After the epidemic, 13% of purchasing managers expected to increase the share of purchases from China. The main reasons are China’s strong value chain integration capabilities and stable production and supply. In addition, the Chinese government’s ability to prevent and control the epidemic is also valued by international buyers. </p
