Recently, PTA prices have been operating in a range. The main reason is that processing fees first increased and then dropped. The market’s expectations for PTA’s subsequent operating rate are adjusted according to the increase or decrease in processing fees. In addition, the downstream polyester operating rate is relatively stable, so PTA prices There was a rebound after the decline in processing fees, but the height of the rebound was limited.
Processing differences remain low
The failure rate increases due to the aging of equipment , the impact of new PTA production capacity and increased acetic acid exports, acetic acid prices have continued to rise since the Spring Festival, and have recently remained at 8,000-8,100 yuan/ton. According to an estimate of the average unit consumption of acetic acid in each device of 35KG/T, the current monthly consumption of acetic acid in the PTA industry has increased by 23% year-on-year. Based on the calculation of 8,000 yuan per ton of acetic acid, the cost of acetic acid to produce 1 ton of PTA is about 320 yuan. Since the three major factors that affect the price of acetic acid are the failure rate, the launch of new PTA production capacity, and overseas demand, there are no signs of improvement in the short term, so the price of acetic acid will continue to squeeze out PTA processing fees in the short term.
As the operating rate of PX equipment increases, the PTA processing range has improved. Excluding the cost of acetic acid, the PTA processing range has returned to the 500 yuan/ton line, which is at a high level during the year. The increase in processing fees has led to the postponement of maintenance of some devices. As processing fees rise, the hedging demand of PTA manufacturers has increased, suppressing PTA prices. In addition, the PTA device did not change much in June. The restart time nodes of Shanghai Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan were postponed. Honggang Petrochemical was overhauled in July. The overall maintenance volume is still high. The new device Yisheng New Materials may be put into production in mid-July. . Therefore, from the supply side, the impact of the start-up time of new equipment on PTA prices is critical.
Polyester operating rate remains stable
At present, the downstream polyester The stabilization of ester operating rate has strong support for PTA prices. Recently, the polyester operating rate has been in the upper 90% range. Fujian Jingwei, Fujian Yijin and other devices have reduced production, and the load of Jinlun and Hengyi has increased. It is estimated that the polyester operating rate will be above 90% in late June, and the overall stability will be maintained. . Among them, the opening rate of filament yarn has increased steadily, the opening rate of bottle flakes is at a historical high for the same period, and the opening rate of short fiber has been reduced due to the accumulation of storage. Since it is currently the off-season for polyester production and sales, downstream promotions are mainly used to drive destocking. Therefore, changes in polyester operating rates in July mainly come from changes in profits. If profits are further diluted, the polyester industry will face the choice of price increases or shutdowns.
Strong cost-side support
With the popularization of the new coronavirus vaccine As the global epidemic situation improves, many European and American countries relax controls, and fuel oil demand increases. Although international crude oil prices have corrected due to expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as the global COVID-19 vaccination rate increases, the demand side of crude oil continues to improve, and international crude oil prices are expected to be strong.
At present, the PX equipment has not changed much. Shanghai Petrochemical has restarted, Fuhua Group has experienced a slight decline, Fujia Dahua’s maintenance has been postponed, and Dongying Weilian Petrochemical (Fuhai) will have maintenance at the end of June and July. , CNOOC Huizhou’s production capacity of 950,000 tons is restarting, and there are many PTA maintenance, the expected price increase of PX accumulated storage is limited. Although the increase in international crude oil prices has driven up the price of PX, the increase in PTA has not been as high as that of PX, so PTA processing fees are still compressed. However, the pressure on PX inventory accumulation is not great, and the cost side still supports PTA prices.
In summary, the stable start-up rate of polyester downstream and the strong international crude oil price have given PTA a certain degree of success. Support, coupled with the continued reduction of PTA warehouse receipts, spot supply in some areas is still tight, and the continued low processing difference drags down the PTA operating rate, the judgment on PTA is temporarily maintained. However, the expected launch of new production capacity continues to suppress the growth of PTA, and the actual launch time of subsequent new production capacity will have a negative impact on the PTA market. The author therefore suggests that before the launch of new PTA production capacity, when the processing fee is below 400 yuan/ton, place short-term multiple orders; when the processing fee is above 600 yuan/ton and the company’s willingness to hedge increases, choose the opportunity to sell short-term null. </p
