Recently, the domestic epidemic has broken out in many places and spread rapidly. The confirmed cases in developed countries abroad have also shown a significant increase. However, the culprit behind the scenes is the “Delta” virus, which is more susceptible to infection and spread. Even the existing vaccines cannot prevent it. It’s completely immune.
In order to better control the epidemic, China has implemented precise blockades in areas that will not affect production and life as much as possible, hoping to control the epidemic. According to incomplete statistics, as of 18:00 on July 30, a total of 19 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country have issued 53 travel reminders for epidemic prevention and control, involving 46 cities. Among them, 29 provinces and cities reminded citizens to “not leave the province or city unless necessary” or “reduce travel out of the province or city”, accounting for more than 50% of all travel reminders. More than 70% of provinces and cities mentioned “not going to medium- and high-risk areas”, and 50% of provinces and cities recommended that citizens “suspend travel outside the province” or choose “travel to surrounding areas.” The education systems in some cities in Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, and Sichuan provinces have imposed strict requirements on epidemic prevention work for teachers and students during the summer, and have canceled related outing exchanges and training activities.
In addition, Beijing, Fujian, Macau, Xi’an in Shaanxi, Zhengzhou in Henan, Changde in Hunan, Wenzhou in Zhejiang, Foshan in Guangdong, Wuhu in Anhui and other places have also issued corresponding epidemic traffic control policies. According to the latest news, some cities and counties in Henan Province have blocked highway intersections, and individual villages have begun to close roads. Some areas have adopted power rationing measures to restrict the start of personnel-intensive industries, causing companies to be unable to produce at full capacity. The speed, scope and impact of this wave of epidemic spread have exceeded everyone’s expectations. Under the influence of the blockade measures, some companies reported that they have temporarily encountered difficulties in transporting raw materials and finished products.
Despite facing another blockade, the person in charge of a textile company in Henan behaved relatively calmly. The impact of the spread of the virus is indeed great, but the impact on the company is small. He believes that the government’s strict control measures The epidemic will soon be under control and production will return to normal. An epidemic as severe as last year will never happen again. After all, my country’s vaccination rate has reached a high level.
At the same time, from the perspective of the weaving process, according to market understanding, the current operating rates of some warp knitting and circular knitting machines have declined to varying degrees, the inventory of finished gray fabrics is at a historical high, and the price of textile raw material spandex With a sharp increase and shortage of goods, negotiations between buyers and sellers have slowed down or even stagnated. Weaving companies have meager profits and are more willing to release inventory than develop new products. During the hot plum season, workers are in a strong mood to take vacations. The lack of work has affected the start-up rate and may continue to decline.
The printing and dyeing link also reflects the fatigue. Since it is still in the traditional off-season of textiles, the follow-up of new orders is slightly weak. Some workshop machines are not started up enough. There are many orders and the following batch orders are Lord, the intention for subsequent orders is unclear. The inventory of finished products in the warehouse of the dyeing factory is at a high level. Due to the continued rise in raw material prices for export orders, customer negotiations have been delayed, and the delivery time of ordered products is tight. It is currently high temperature, and many workers in the factory are asking for leave, which further aggravates the delivery time. nervous.
The weakness of the downstream market has also had a greater impact on the polyester raw material link.
In the second half of July, with rising oil prices, tight supply, and the peak season approaching, the bullish atmosphere in the PTA market has increased, and prices have soared. The 2109 contract has pushed up from 5,200 yuan/ton. to more than 5,600 yuan/ton. On the first trading day of August, it surged higher and fell back to close the negative line. After that, PTA continued to weaken. Especially the 2109 contract, which was strong in the early stage, has given up all the gains in July within the four trading days of this week. The sudden change in PTA’s style is mainly caused by the stop of rising oil prices. In addition, the supply is gradually recovering, while the downstream polyester and weaving operating rates are declining, causing obstacles on the demand side.
Polyester filament, which has risen together with PTA, has recently put down its arrogant attitude, ended the continuous price increase, and began to return to the weekly price reduction promotions from April to June. On the 5th, many polyester raw material manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas clearly lowered the price of raw materials by 50-100 yuan/ton.
However, there are also downstream traders who believe that the current raw materials may have a correction due to this wave of epidemic. Only adjustments will make the rise more healthy, otherwise the upside space will be limited. Industry insiders said that the continued rise in raw materials in the early stage was inextricably linked to the high fluctuations in crude oil. Now the impact of falling oil prices is being transmitted step by step, which has also caused the price of polyester to fall. However, in the long run, the impact of the epidemic on the supply side of the industry will continue and will become more severe. The domestic epidemic has heightened anxiety, and downstream factories are also under corresponding pressure. Future changes in polyester prices may be a game between upstream costs and downstream demand.
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