After a short-term sharp decline, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil found bottom support at key prices yesterday, and both rebounded strongly overnight. SC crude oil continued to be strong during the day on Wednesday, rising sharply by 3.71% to close at 433.2 yuan/barrel.
Yesterday evening, according to CNBC, the White House will call on OPEC+ to increase oil production in response to rising gasoline prices. Biden administration officials spoke this week with representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan said, “We are in contact with relevant OPEC+ members on the importance of competitive markets in pricing. Competitive energy markets will ensure reliable and stable energy supply, and OPEC+ must do more Measures to support recovery.”
Affected by this, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil plunged, falling by more than 2% at one time, and then the decline narrowed.
Early this morning, the White House once again intervened in the market, saying that the government is communicating with OPEC and oil-producing partners, but is focusing on long-term cooperation and is not asking these countries to take immediate action. The White House further stated that it had not directed domestic oil producers to increase production capacity.
Soon, international oil prices turned higher during the day. As of this morning’s close, WTI September crude oil futures closed up 1.40% at $69.25/barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed up 1.14% at $71.44/barrel, both hitting new highs since August 3.
On August 11, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with oil and energy futures leading the gains. The main palm oil contract rose by more than 5%, vegetable oil rose by nearly 4%, and soybean oil rose 3.5%; the main LPG contract rose by about 4.5%, crude oil rose by nearly 4%; most black series rose, and iron ore, rebar, and coke rose by more than 3%. Last night, the main contract of palm oil rose by more than 3% again; the main contract of vegetable oil rose by more than 2%.
Yesterday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced its supply and demand report for July. Production and inventories were lower than expected, and exports were higher than expected. Specifically, Malaysia’s palm oil imports in July were 54,381 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 51.93%; production was 1,523,143 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.17%; exports were 1,408,321 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.75%; inventory was 1,496,460 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.30%.
Last night, the latest data released by the U.S. National Bureau of Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI continued to maintain its upward momentum in July. The overall CPI in July increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and was expected to increase by 5.3%. Value is 5.4%. This is still the highest level since 2008.
According to CCTD China Coal Market Network, on the 10th, the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Emergency Management issued a notice on the temporary suspension of production safety licenses for 7 coal mines including Xingshengmin Coal Mine in Fugu County, Yulin City. notify. The notice requires Fugu County and Shenmu City to strengthen the supervision of coal mines with temporary production safety licenses, strictly follow relevant regulations and requirements, implement targeted control measures, urge coal mines to make serious rectifications, and not organize production during the rectification period, and strictly prevent coal mines from shutting down production instead. Rectify or rectify while producing. If the notice is followed, the production capacity will be affected by 40.2 million tons.
The White House has repeatedly stated that crude oil is experiencing a “roller coaster” market
Yesterday, international oil prices staged a “roller coaster” trend. In this regard, Zhaojin Futures Energy Analyst Yu Pengsen said that the United States is currently experiencing serious inflation. The White House is not only targeting crude oil, but all commodities whose prices are rising causing US inflation. “Crude oil has a relatively large impact, so it is normal for it to be named. Moreover, the U.S. oil and gas industry has not recovered satisfactorily since it was seriously injured last year, and crude oil inventories continue to decline.” He said.
“One reason for the rebound at 70 US dollars per barrel is that this position is a very critical support level for oil prices. Oil prices also found support here after the sharp decline in July. . There was a rapid rebound. After this continuous decline, oil prices once again gained technical rebound momentum; during this period, geopolitical friction between Iran and Israel in the Middle East, frequent accidents such as oil plant fires, pipeline leaks, ship fires, etc. also had a certain impact on oil prices. Impact. In addition, the passage of the infrastructure bill in the United States yesterday boosted market sentiment, and you can see that risk assets including the stock market and copper have risen.” Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said.
In Yu Pengsen’s view, unlike the first correction of crude oil from the high point of the year, the first time was mainly caused by the concentrated liquidation of long positions, while this round of decline is It is caused by changes in fundamentals and suppression by short sellers. “After it was determined that it could not break through the previous low, and it was supported by the news that the U.S. infrastructure plan was passed, short sellers concentrated on closing their positions and leaving the market. This was the main reason for the rebound in oil prices this week.” Yu Pengsen said.
Yang An said that the current contradictions in the crude oil market are relatively prominent. The new round of epidemic has intensified the market’s concerns about the recovery of global crude oil demand, which has gradually been reflected in oil prices, while the United States The Senate passed a $550 billion infrastructure bill, marking the largest public infrastructure spending in the United States in decades. If the bill can be successfully advanced, it will boost the economy and demand for petroleum products.
“However, generally speaking, the tightest supply stage in the crude oil market may have passed. As the supply side gradually increases production, the gap between supply and demand is expected to gradually converge, and it is difficult for oil prices to continue to be strong. There is a high probability that it will enter a weak operating stage.” Yang An said.
“From the perspective of the trading logic of both longs and shorts, the current main logic of shorts is twofold: First, the recurrence of the epidemic in China will cause the actual demand for crude oil to decline, and the market has been By default, China’s demand is steadily increasing, which changes the supply and demand balance.�, which will suppress oil prices in the short term. Second, the peak oil consumption season in the United States is about to end, and there is no expected reason to continue to support the rise in oil prices. It can be seen that short sellers are still concerned about the actual demand side and expected changes. The logic of the bulls has not changed significantly compared with the previous period. The trend of destocking is still the same before the end of the year. The supply is still unable to meet the growth in demand. The bulls still focus on the supply side. “Yu Pengsen said.
It is worth noting that the current spread of the Delta virus has forced some countries and regions to strengthen blockade measures. Yang An said that this has obviously affected the demand for crude oil. It has had a negative impact on the end of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts that crude oil demand in the next two months will be 600,000 barrels per day less than in July. Judging from the significant decline in crude oil imports from China and India in the past two months, the decline in global crude oil demand has already This is relatively certain, as reflected in the weakening price trend of crude oil and the spread between contracts. Although the gap between supply and demand in the crude oil market has narrowed at present, there will not be a surplus situation immediately, so the possibility of a sharp drop in oil prices is not high. , the greater probability is that the center of gravity of oil prices will gradually oscillate downward.
In Yu Pengsen’s view, the current impact of the Delta virus is relatively limited. Although there are many mutant viruses, this has not affected demand. With good expectations, the oil market will be in short supply until the end of the year.
“Goldman Sachs’ latest statement shows that demand may be reduced compared with the previous optimistic expectations and changed to cautious Optimistic and lowered its oil price forecast at the end of the year to US$80/barrel. It can be said that this expectation is still optimistic. Judging from historical rules, it is normal for oil prices to rise and fall in a wide range, while continuous rises without correction like the previous period are abnormal. “Yu Pengsen said that after oil prices fall back to the support level, there will be no negative effects on supply and demand, and there will still be a slight increase. From the perspective of crude oil demand, demand may only weaken after October. Before that, oil prices are likely to decline. There will be a sharp drop, mostly wide oscillations, and there is still the possibility of going higher.</p
