The above picture is the weekly trend chart of PTA. The picture is roughly divided into two stages: the declining period of PX production capacity expansion and the rising period driven by the bottoming out of crude oil. . In fact, many investment friends do not understand the current rise of PTA, and even used PTA as a short side in arbitrage transactions, because the fundamentals of PTA do not have good bullish factors.
But is the rise of PTA really driven only by crude oil as its raw material? not necessarily.
Let’s take a look at the polyester industry chain first:
Crude oil is processed to form naphtha, and then there are two production lines: plastics and polyester. PX is produced after naphtha is cracked, and PTA is formed after oxidation. PX is the direct upstream of PTA, and PTA is the upstream raw material of polyester.
PTA is catalyzed by ethylene glycol to form PET, which is then decomposed into plastic bottles, plastic films, and plastic fibers. The fiber can be classified into industrial and civilian production, and civilian use is mainly used for polyester textiles.
The fibers are stretched at different intensities to form POY (preliminary stretching), FDY (POY further stretching), and DTY (high-strength stretching), which correspond to different spinning methods and form different polyester fabrics.
Supply:
7 In March, PTA spot processing fees increased significantly month-on-month. Regardless of the cost of acetic acid (acetic acid is an important chemical for the synthesis of PTA), the theoretical processing fee for PTA spot is 626 yuan/ton (+99 yuan/ton); considering the cost of acetic acid, the theoretical processing fee for PTA spot is 413 yuan/ton ( +154 yuan/ton).
This year’s PTA has a unique feature:
It has more production capacity, but its capacity utilization rate is low, which means that production A lot of new driving equipment has been built, but more are broken and out of repair, resulting in less effective production capacity. This is an important factor in the limited supply of PTA and supporting the bottom.
In 2021, 8.6 million tons of PTA production capacity has been put into operation. The base of PTA production capacity has been adjusted to 66.23 million tons, but the long-stop device has 8.315 million tons, accounting for 12.6%, of which 5.425 million new parking capacity has been added this year. Ton.
After the new device was put into operation, there were many failures, and unplanned shutdowns of other large and medium-sized equipment also occurred. Coupled with the impact of typhoons, port logistics was hindered, and spot goods were stranded in the intermediate links. Higher processing fees boosted spot goods. However, in the long run, high processing fees will attract parked devices to start up as soon as possible, increasing effective production capacity, which will have a suppressive effect on future processing fees and spot prices.
Requirements:
From the perspective of domestic demand, the retail sales of consumer goods from January to June 2021 The total amount was 21.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. During the same period, the total retail sales of consumer goods such as clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 67.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%.
The overall consumer demand in the domestic market has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. At present, the growth rate of domestic demand in the textile and apparel industry is still relatively slow, but the recovery of consumption is beyond doubt.
From the perspective of external demand, the country’s total exports of textiles and clothing from January to June 2021 were US$140.086 billion, an increase of 11.9% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative exports of textiles were US$68.558 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, and the cumulative exports of clothing were US$71.528 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. The export performance of my country’s textile and apparel industry is outstanding.
Inventory:
From the picture we can see that 2017 is the PTA inventory digestion stage , laid the foundation for the surge in 2018. Under the low inventory environment throughout 2018, coupled with the boost of crude oil, the surge began. In 19 and 20, PX production capacity was put into operation, PTA entered a period of surplus, inventory accumulated rapidly, and crude oil weakened, resulting in a long-term downward trend. After the Chinese New Year last year, supply and demand turned around, and there was a good response in the inventory digestion.
Summary of the May survey:
According to Niuqian’s May PTA survey, the large-scale refining and chemical integration project has developed by leaps and bounds. In 2021 The PTA industry chain has ushered in a turning point, and the company has also realized substantial business operations in the entire industry chain from “a drop of oil” to “a thread”. In the process of this development, the PTA industry chain industry pattern has also emerged with new characteristics. The domestic PTA industry has experienced a period of overcapacity and a period of overcapacity reshuffle, and changes in the supply pattern have had a greater impact on the market. The supply structure of the domestic PTA industry is expected to return to surplus soon. </p
