On August 12, before the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) August supply and demand report, the domestic futures market closed with mixed trends in agricultural products. Palm oil and rapeseed oil closed slightly higher, beans collectively fell, and rapeseed meal fell more than 2%.
Before the report is released, Reuters, Bloomberg and other institutions expect that the U.S. corn and soybean yield data will be lowered in 2021/2022. The ending inventory of new crop soybeans will increase compared with July, and the corn inventory will increase compared with 6 The production volume of new crop soybeans and corn decreased compared with July.
Deng Dan, an analyst at Hualian Futures, said in an interview with reporters yesterday that the average yield data currently forecast by institutions is 50.4 bushels/acre, which is higher than last year’s 50.2 bushels/acre. This reflects expectations for good rainfall this year, but new crops in the northwestern United States, including North and South Dakota and Minnesota, are still affected by dry weather this year. The extent of yield losses in these areas is still unknown. Of course, the yield of 50.4 bushels per acre is relatively reasonable, but surprises cannot be ruled out. The most important thing about the August supply and demand report is the yield, which will set the future trend of U.S. soybeans and domestic soybean meal. If the yield reported in August deviates too much from 50.4 bushels/acre, it may cause sharp fluctuations in the prices of U.S. soybeans and domestic oils and fats after the report is released.
In the early morning of August 13, the USDA August supply and demand report was released.
Specifically, in August, the soybean planting area in the United States in 2021/2022 is expected to be 87.6 million acres, the same as the previous month; the soybean harvest area is expected to be 86.7 million acres, the same as the previous month; the soybean yield is expected 50 bushels/acre, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 bushels/acre; soybean production is expected to be 4.339 billion bushels, a month-on-month decrease of 66 million bushels; the total soybean supply is expected to be 4.533 billion bushels, a month-on-month decrease of 42 million bushels; soybean ending stocks are expected to be 155 million bushels, in July The forecast is 155 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month.
In August, the corn planting area in the United States in 2021/2022 is expected to be 92.7 million acres, the same as the previous month; the harvested area is expected to be 84.5 million acres, the same as the previous month; the yield is expected to be 174.6 bushels per acre, the same as the previous month. A decrease of 4.9 bushels per acre; production is expected to be 14.75 billion bushels, a decrease of 415 million bushels from the previous month; total supply is expected to be 15.892 billion bushels, a decrease of 380 million bushels from the previous month; ending stocks are expected to be 1.242 billion bushels, a decrease of 190 million bushels from the previous month.
In August, the U.S. wheat planting area in 2021/2022 is expected to be 46.7 million acres, the same as the previous month; the harvested area is expected to be 38.1 million acres, the same as the previous month; the yield is expected to be 44.5 bushels per acre, the same as the previous month. A decrease of 1.3 bushels per acre; production is expected to be 1.697 billion bushels, a decrease of 49 million bushels from the previous month; total supply is expected to be 2.686 billion bushels, a decrease of 49 million bushels from the previous month; ending stocks are expected to be 627 million bushels, a decrease of 38 million bushels from the previous month.
In August, the cotton planting area in the United States for 2021/2022 is expected to be 11.72 million acres, unchanged from the previous month; the harvested area is expected to be 10.36 million acres, a decrease of 140,000 acres from the previous month; the yield is expected to be 800 pounds/ acres, a month-on-month decrease of 14 pounds/acre; production is expected to be 17.26 million pounds, a month-on-month decrease of 540,000 pounds; total supply is expected to be 20.47 million pounds, a month-on-month decrease of 480,000 pounds; ending stocks are expected to be 3 million pounds, a month-on-month decrease of 300,000 pounds.
In August, the U.S. soybean meal production for 2021/2022 is expected to be 52.05 million short tons, a decrease of 450,000 short tons from the previous month; the total supply is expected to be 52.95 million short tons, a decrease of 450,000 short tons from the previous month. tons; total consumption is expected to be 52.45 million short tons, a decrease of 450,000 short tons from the previous month; ending inventory is expected to be 500,000 short tons, unchanged from the previous month.
In August, the U.S. soybean oil production in 2021/2022 is expected to be 25.71 billion pounds, a decrease of 235 million pounds from the previous month; the total supply is expected to be 28.103 billion pounds, a decrease of 235 million pounds from the previous month; total consumption The volume is expected to be 26.65 billion pounds, a decrease of 200 million pounds from the previous month; the ending inventory is expected to be 1.453 billion pounds, a decrease of 35 million pounds from the previous month.
After the USDA monthly report was released, the main contracts of CBOT soybeans, corn, soybean oil, soybean meal, and wheat all rose sharply. During the session, the main cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) jumped to a new contract high. The CBOT wheat futures 2112 contract hit an eight-year high, reaching a maximum of 772.5 cents per bushel. The main CBOT corn contract once rose by more than 6%.
As of this morning’s close, CBOT September wheat futures closed up 4.4% at $7.59 per bushel, a new closing high since May. CBOT December corn futures closed up 4.5%, and CBOT November soybean futures closed up 1%.
On August 12, the US PPI data for July was released. The U.S. PPI increased by 7.8% year-on-year in July, compared with the expected increase of 7.2%, and the previous value increased by 7.3%; the core PPI in July increased by 6.2% year-on-year, compared with the expected increase of 5.6%, and the previous value increased by 5.6%.
Analysts pointed out that although data showed that the U.S. CPI growth slowed down in July, this slowdown failed to completely eliminate the pressure caused by rising costs. PPI gains have been accelerating for much of this year amid strong demand, supply chain constraints and raw material shortages. Rising input costs, combined with recent upward pressure on wages, help explain the rise in CPI.
Double negative? The IEA and OPEC monthly reports both lowered their crude oil demand expectations
On Thursday afternoon, the IEA released its latest monthly report. The IEA announced that it would lower its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by more than 500,000 barrels per day, and mentioned that it has lowered its oil demand outlook due to the COVID-19 epidemic and expects a supply glut in 2022.
On the supply side, the IEA monthly report pointed out that the implementation rate of OPEC+ production cuts reached 110% in July, and global oil supply increased by 1.7 million barrels/day to 96.7 million barrels/day in July; Oil supply outside OPEC+ is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day this year and 1.7 million barrels per day in 2022.60% of the increase came from the United States.
The IEA monthly report shows that the agreement finalized by OPEC+ last month will take a long time to restore market equilibrium. The IEA also specifically mentioned the situation in Iran, pointing out that if sanctions continue to hinder Iranian exports, the situation of consuming oil stocks before the end of 2021 may continue.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 5.3 million barrels/day to 96.2 million barrels/day in 2021, and to further increase by 3.2 million barrels/day in 2022. However, oil consumption The implementation of new epidemic prevention restrictions in China, especially oil-consuming countries in Asia, will reduce the movement of people and the use of oil.
On Thursday evening, OPEC’s monthly report was released.
On the demand side, the monthly report shows that OPEC keeps its world oil demand growth forecast unchanged in 2021 and 2022, but it expects demand for OPEC crude oil to decrease by 200,000 barrels/barrel in 2021. day, to 27.4 million barrels per day, lowering the forecast for OPEC’s crude oil demand in 2022 by 1.1 million barrels per day, and predicting that the oil market will still tighten in the second half of 2022.
The monthly report also raised the forecast for world economic growth in 2021 and 2022, raising the forecast for global economic growth in 2021 by 10 basis points to 5.6%, and raising the forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 5.6%. Raised 10 basis points to 4.2%.
On the supply side, OPEC’s monthly report shows that OPEC’s oil production in July reached 26.657 million barrels per day, OPEC+’s production reduction implementation rate in July was 110%, and Russia’s production reduction implementation rate was 95%. %.
OPEC’s monthly report also raised its 2021 non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast by 270,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, and increased its 2022 non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast by 84 10,000 barrels/day to 2.9 million barrels/day. </p
