In recent times, international oil prices, which have finally escaped from the quagmire of falling prices, have begun to fall sharply again. At present, the risk aversion caused by the epidemic is still the main factor influencing the further decline of oil prices.
The drop in international oil prices has driven down the entire polyester industry chain, casting a shadow once again over the otherwise profitable polyester filament destocking process. Since August, polyester filament has been promoted many times, with prices reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton. On the 12th, polyester factories lowered prices by another 100-150 yuan/ton. However, the promotions since August ended up with average weekly production and sales at about 50%, and the trading atmosphere was quite sluggish. The “buying increase” failed, and the “promotion” also failed. The factory inventory pressure is slowly increasing under the current situation of continued light production and sales, and the life of the polyester factory is getting more and more difficult!
Affected by the recent poor production and sales of polyester filament yarns, prices continue to drop, and polyester filament yarn prices continue to decline. Some models of silk FDY are already on the edge of the cost line. As of August 10, polyester filament POY150D/48F reported 7625, FDY150D/96F reported 7800, DTY150D/48F reported 9275, POY profit 116.46, FDY profit -108.55, DTY profit 450 (yuan/ton).
In the case of large-scale loss of profits
Finally, the polyester factory is beginning to be unable to hold on any longer
Recently, the market has once again reported a new round of polyester device maintenance at the polyester factory! It is understood that the current maintenance of polyester filament equipment is mainly concentrated in FDY. A factory in Shaoxing plans to reduce production by 500-600 tons/day starting from the weekend, and another factory in Shaoxing plans to stop all 200,000 tons/year polyester filament equipment on August 15. Due to the installation of one end and two tails in a factory in Huzhou, the maintenance of polyester staple fiber affects a polyester filament production line, affecting approximately 30 tons/day output. Overall, the recent maintenance of new equipment has affected approximately 1,000 tons/day of losses, accounting for 1.04% of the standard daily output of direct-spinning polyester filament.
Can the maintenance of polyester equipment boost market confidence?
International crude oil prices have been mixed recently. The reason is that the epidemic has given a double blow to the economy and demand, which has made the industry’s worries continue to ferment. According to the current situation, crude oil The probability of a sharp rebound to the original position is not very high, and the supply of goods circulating in the PTA market is in a tight state. PTA spot supply and demand are slightly mismatched, and the destocking pattern is likely to remain in August-September. It is expected that PTA may continue to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term. From the supply side, the cost-side suppression will hardly leave room for polyester filament to rise. At present, the market needs to pay more attention to demand-side orders, but the feedback from terminals is not satisfactory.
Although it has entered August and the weakest month of July has passed, the weaving market is still in the off-season. Since August is approaching the peak season, the weaving market has always been prepared to stock up in advance, so the weaving market in August will have a clear upward trend compared to July. In 2019 and 2020, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to rise sharply at the end of July and early August. However, this trend is not obvious this year, and even the start-up rates of major textile clusters have dropped to varying degrees since August. According to data monitoring, the current operating rate of water-jet and air-jet looms in Shengze has dropped to around 74%. Even the operating rates of warp knitting and circular knitting machines that have been running at a high level in Xiaoshao area have declined to varying degrees, and the inventory of finished gray fabrics is at a historical high.
Some weaving companies have experienced a cliff-like decline in goods sales, and gray fabric inventories have increased rapidly. A weaving company that mainly produces corduroy said that with the hot weather, the sales of corduroy have become increasingly deserted, and the inventory of gray cloth has risen to half a year’s worth.
At the same time, the epidemic has always been the biggest factor restricting demand in the textile industry. The epidemic abroad has worsened again, and city closures, work stoppages, etc. have repeatedly occurred, which will lead to the loss of some orders. . Some downstream companies have stopped taking orders because of this, and they dare not take orders even if they exist. The spread of the epidemic in Southeast Asia is also a double-edged sword, which may be able to catalyze the return of some overseas orders to the country. The downstream weaving and trading side of the returned orders have not received substantive orders at present. Even if they are placed later, for the huge market, the orders received by enterprises may only be a few orders, which is just a drop in the bucket. At the same time, the deterioration of the domestic epidemic situation has continued to have an impact on the supply side of the industry, and is likely to become more severe. The downstream industry is about to usher in the traditional peak season. Under the pressure of the epidemic, the market direction may change.
To sum up, due to the continued poor demand and relatively strong raw material side, polyester filament can only compress profits to ensure shipments, but Judging from historical profit data, polyester filament FDY’s cash flow losses were more than -400 yuan when it was severe, and the current decline is acceptable. Therefore, considering the current situation, it may be difficult to boost the market atmosphere by reducing polyester filament production and maintaining prices, and the market still needs to pay attention. Demand-side orders and shipping costs, and changes in the global epidemic. </p
