“Orders have decreased a lot now. All orders in July and August have been shipped, but customers have not placed additional orders. The peak period is in March and April, when the orders are the largest.” On August 13, working in Shantou, Guangdong Mr. Lu, a garment manufacturer, said that the booming garment exports in the first half of the year seemed to have stalled.
Export data fell sharply in July
“Reshoring” orders are back
Data recently released by the General Administration of Customs show that both clothing exports and textile exports fell in July. Settled in RMB, textile and apparel exports were 181.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.24%, a month-on-month increase of 1.82%, and a month-on-month decrease of 4.21%. Among them, textile exports were 75.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.90%, and a month-on-month decrease of 4.21%. An increase of 1.30%; clothing exports were 106.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.08%, a month-on-month increase of 9.03%, and a decrease of 7.76% compared with the same period in 2019.
In fact, since the second quarter, the monthly export growth of textile and clothing has gradually declined. Exports in May fell by 16.8%. Exports in June continued to decline, but the decline was significantly narrower than in May. Only 3.7%.
“The large decline in textiles and clothing is largely due to the export orders of the textile industry in some Southeast Asian and South Asian countries. It has recovered, especially in India and Bangladesh. Some of the orders that originally ‘returned’ to China have returned.” On August 13, Bai Ming, deputy director of the Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, pointed out in an interview.
Mr. Lu, who is engaged in clothing production, also agreed, “In the first half of this year, if the epidemic situation in other Southeast Asian countries eases, domestic orders will decrease, and then the price of raw materials will drop. .
Lack of substantial orders and falling market confidence
The operating rate of the weaving market dropped unexpectedly
The decrease in orders was also clearly felt from the weaving end.
In mid-May Later, weaving, printing and dyeing factories in some areas of Wujiang began to impose forced production restrictions due to water pollution. The government required that two operations be opened and the other stopped. Shengze area involved about 30% of the operating load. In May and June, when the trading atmosphere was relatively good, local water spraying operations were not started. It has been maintained at around 60%, which is a decrease of nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2019. What is dramatic is that after mid-July, the local environmental protection management ended, but the construction started did not rebound as much as expected.
Comprehensive reasons include the domestic epidemic, the environmental protection holiday, and the shortage of workers. In addition, the lack of orders and the accelerated increase in factory finished product inventory after mid-July. Of course, the most important problem is the lack of substantive orders and the fall in market confidence. For example Warp knitting has performed well in terms of profits from last year to the first half of this year, with abundant funds and full confidence in the first half of the year. Therefore, both Changshu warp knitting and Haining warp knitting are basically doing inventory.
What is more terrifying than the lack of orders and high sea freight is the hoarding of gray fabrics
The increase in the cargo link!
After mid-July, orders in the downstream chemical fiber weaving industry gradually turned cold. Although the overall operating rate is still at a high level in the same period, a detailed analysis of each region and machine Under such circumstances, it is difficult to confidently claim that “the off-season is not slow”. In the second half of the year, what is more terrifying than the lack of orders and high sea freight is the increase in gray fabric stocking.
Currently Judging from the trends of various indicators, the start-up load of weaving is still at a high level in previous years, and the inventory of gray cloth and raw materials are still within the controllable range. From the above three indicators, it can be determined that the current demand for polyester and even PTA, ethylene glycol There is support for the load and price of alcohol, but one indicator that cannot be ignored is the number of order days. It is now basically close to the same period in 2020. The off-season atmosphere is undoubtedly revealed. It can be concluded that the larger support point of the three indicators is “gambling” ”.
From mid-February to early March, and from mid-May to the end of June, although cloth merchants would buy cloth at these two times in previous years, this year it is especially so. , to use adjectives from people in the industry: crazy, hard to estimate. To briefly explain, after mid-February, crude oil skyrocketed, and cloth merchants took the opportunity to buy cloth at low prices, causing factory gray cloth inventories to fall sharply. After mid-May, they are optimistic about terminal orders in the second half of the year. , chemical fiber prices have gone crazy again. Although there has been a certain return of orders from Southeast Asia during this period, and weaving autumn and winter orders have also started in advance, more of the atmosphere comes from inquiries and orders from cloth merchants, resulting in a “thriving market” “Scene, in fact, so far, terminal clothing has not started a large-scale order signing mode, especially for autumn and winter orders.
So what impact does the gray cloth in the weaving hand have on the raw materials? On the surface, the excessive amount of gray fabric in society has a drag on the production and prices of weaving, polyester, and even PTA and ethylene glycol. Of course, this is generally based on the situation that weaving orders are average and polyester prices are declining. Once merchants engage in intensive and large-scale selling of goods at low prices, it will be extremely detrimental to the entire chain. However, through communication with fabric merchants, if the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period comes as scheduled in the second half of the year or the price of polyester filament is strong, this part of gray fabric may not be considered until next year, and the impact on the market can be ignored for the time being. </p
