After seven consecutive days of adjustments, international oil prices rebounded strongly yesterday. As of the close, the October contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at US$65.64/barrel, an increase of 5.63%; the October contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at US$68.75/barrel, an increase of 5.48%.
On the news, a document released by Pemex on Monday showed that a fire broke out on the company’s offshore oil drilling platform due to the inability to re-inject natural gas into the oil field. Oil production fell by 444,000 barrels per day. An explosion occurred on an offshore oil drilling platform of Pemex on Sunday, killing at least one person and leaving five missing. Pemex said the fire was under control hours later. Documents show the company’s crude oil production fell from 719,000 barrels per day before the accident to nearly 275,000 barrels per day on Monday morning.
International oil prices rebounded sharply
Nanhua Gu Shuangfei, a futures energy analyst, believes that the sharp rebound in international oil prices yesterday was because the market gradually digested the early expectations of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction and began to pay attention to the new liquidity expectations guidance in this week’s global central bank meeting, and the US dollar index weakened. . At the same time, the worsening epidemic has also made it possible to postpone the Fed’s expected exit from QE, and the market has become cautious about the timing of Taper.
“In addition, after Brent oil fell to US$65/barrel, it was technically on the lower edge of the short-term downward channel line. There is a possibility of a short-term rebound, which attracted some bargain-hunting funds. intervention.” Gu Shuangfei mentioned, but in the medium to long term, as time goes by, the crude oil supply gap gradually narrows, and it is expected that it will gradually enter a storage accumulation cycle after January next year. If the impact of the epidemic on demand is superimposed, and If there are variables in Iran’s increase in production, such an accumulation node may even be brought forward. Therefore, from the perspective of the general cycle, there is a high probability that crude oil will still oscillate and run weakly, and the rhythm may be affected by the Fed’s monetary policy. You need to be cautious when chasing short positions.
Yesterday, some varieties of the energy and chemical sector were driven by the strong rise in coal prices. It is understood that the coal sector rose sharply on Monday, and the thermal coal 2201 contract sealed the daily limit. Affected by this, methanol also saw a significant rise yesterday. The price of ethylene glycol in the polyester product chain increased yesterday. Han Bingbing, an analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, believes that the reason behind this may be that about 20% of ethylene glycol in my country is produced from coal, and currently coal-based The profit of ethylene glycol is low and will also be supported by the cost of coal.
According to Han Bingbing, the profit of domestic coal-to-methanol is currently very low, which is greatly affected by the cost side. From the perspective of methanol itself, there are strong driving expectations for the methanol futures 2201 contract. . “Methanol has strong seasonality. It usually starts to be destocked in September and reaches its lowest point in December. Therefore, the supply and demand of methanol are generally tight in winter.” Han Bingbing said that the main reason for the tight supply and demand of methanol in winter is the winter weather. First, ensure the heating use of residents, and limit the production of methanol produced from natural gas at the supply end. In addition, due to environmental protection issues in winter, coke oven gas production is limited and supply is reduced. In terms of demand, the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods are the peak seasons for traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and acetic acid. After the weather gets colder, the demand for methanol fuel increases and the supply increases.
In addition, in Han Bingbing’s view, the “story that can be told” in this year’s methanol 2201 contract is that carbon neutrality may lead to supply reduction, and the production of new downstream MTO and formaldehyde devices will The demand for methanol will increase in the future, as well as high overseas natural gas prices and domestic coal supply shortages. </p
