With the slowdown of the epidemic in my country, the normalization of prevention and control, and the continued release of dividends from stable foreign trade policies, it has provided strong support for the growth of my country’s textile exports. The world economy is hesitant on the road to recovery. The epidemic has repeatedly slowed down and rebounded around the world. Affected by the epidemic, textile and apparel producing countries such as India and Vietnam have been hindered in accepting orders, and some orders have been transferred to my country. In the first half of 2021, my country’s textile and apparel exports hit a record high for the same period in history. highest level.
According to my country’s customs monthly report data, in the first half of 2021, my country’s textile and clothing exports were US$140.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The scale of textile and clothing exports not only exceeded the level of the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, but also set a new record for the same period in history.
01
Some orders are placed in my country Concentration, clothing exports have increased significantly. There have been multiple waves of epidemics around the world, but my country can still supply clothing products stably. International orders have a tendency to concentrate in my country. At the same time, market demand in Europe and the United States has gradually recovered, so my country’s clothing exports are accelerating. In the first half of the year, my country’s clothing product exports were US$71.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, which was the highest export volume in the same period since 2016; clothing accounted for 51.1% of the total textile and clothing exports, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from 2020, and recovered The changing trend of clothing proportion before the epidemic.
Changes in the export structure of textiles and clothing in recent years
Data source: China Customs
From the perspective of export markets, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and ASEAN are the top four markets for China’s clothing exports. In the first half of the year, clothing exports to these four major markets were US$16.88 billion, US$13.36 billion, US$6.80 billion, and US$5.84 billion respectively. US dollars, year-on-year growth of 65.7%, 30.0%, 14.6% and 42.1% respectively.
Take the United States, the largest export market, as an example. According to U.S. customs import data, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia have accounted for an increasing share of the U.S. imported apparel market in the past decade. However, Affected by the epidemic, clothing imports from the four countries accounted for 19.7%, 8.8%, 5.9% and 5.5% of the U.S. clothing import market respectively from January to May this year, which were slightly lower than the same period last year, down by 0.4, 0.6, and 0.6 respectively. 0.1 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points. my country accounts for 19.9% of the U.S. apparel import market, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
02
Demand for epidemic prevention products decreases , Textile exports fell. As the global epidemic situation changes, the demand for anti-epidemic materials has dropped significantly. The reduced demand for masks has dragged down the decline in my country’s textile exports. In the first half of the year, my country’s textile exports were US$68.56 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.
Among them, the export value of textile products (including masks) with customs tariff number 63079000 was US$6.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 78.8%. The proportion of this product in my country’s textile exports dropped to 10.1%, while in the same period last year, the export of this product was US$32.63 billion, accounting for 44.1%.
Affected by the outbreak of the epidemic in the first quarter of last year, my country’s textile exports showed a quarterly low since 2015, with exports of only US$26.90 billion; in the second quarter, they were affected by the surge in global demand for epidemic prevention materials. , quarterly exports of textiles reached a historical high, reaching US$51.43 billion. Due to the base effect, textile exports fell by 28.5% in the second quarter of this year. However, in absolute terms, textile exports in the second quarter of this year were US$36.79 billion, which was still higher than every quarter in 2019 before the epidemic.
Quarterly export comparison chart of textiles in the past two years
Data source: China Customs
03
Excluding the factor of masks, exports of major commodities in the industrial chain have increased. From the perspective of the industrial chain, China’s Customs Tariff No. 63079000 Textile Products (including masks ) The rapid decline in exports is an important factor influencing the decline in textile exports in the first half of this year.
If the factor of masks is excluded, textile exports achieved a positive growth of 49.0% in the first half of the year. In addition, exports of major commodities such as chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics and textile machinery in the industrial chain have increased. The global economy continues to recover, driving increased external demand and boosting my country’s textile product exports.
Export list of major commodities in China’s textile industry chain in the first half of 2021
Data source: China Customs
04
Demand continues to recover; Major export markets are active. Although the epidemic continues to recur, international demand is still growing. In addition, excluding the factor of masks, China’s textile and apparel exports to major trading partners have achieved positive growth.
Looking at the top five markets for textile and apparel exports, they are the United States, ASEAN, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea. In the first half of the year, the five largest markets for textile and apparel exports were US$24.64 billion and US$22.47 billion respectively. US dollars, US$20.59 billion, US$9.47 billion, and US$4.42 billion; year-on-year increases of 12.2%, 35.7%, -20.0%, -8.4%, and 18.5% respectively. If the export value of unlisted textile products (customs tax number 63079000, including masks) is excluded, these five major markets have all achieved positive growth year-on-year, with increases of 63.4%, 42.2%, 31.0%, 14.7% and 32.4% respectively.
Textile and apparel export market share in the first half of the year
Data source: China Customs
The United States is my country’s largest export market for textiles and clothing. In the first half of the year, one-fifth of the end products of the industrial chain were exported to the United States. In addition to US$16.88 billion in clothing exports to the United States, US$6.93 billion in textile products were exported to the United States, accounting for 23.5% and 22.4% of the export market of clothing and textile products respectively. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Office of Textile and Apparel, the United States imported US$10.15 billion in textiles and apparel from my country from January to May 2021, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, continuing to occupy the largest import source market in the United States.
With the development of the textile industry in Southeast Asia and South Asia, the demand for front-end products in my country’s textile industry chain continues to increase. In the first half of this year, my country’s largest export market of textile yarn and textile fabrics was firmly ranked by ASEAN. Textile yarn exports to ASEAN were US$1.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, accounting for 19.2% of the textile yarn export market. Textile fabric exports to ASEAN were US$10.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.6%, accounting for 51.4% of the textile fabric export market.
Most of the 27 EU countries are developed economies. Like the United States, they have strong demand for the end products of my country’s textile industry chain. In the first half of this year, the EU occupied the second position in my country’s clothing and textile products exports respectively. Clothing exports to the EU were US$13.36 billion, accounting for 18.7% of China’s clothing export market; textile products exported to the EU were US$5.20 billion, accounting for 10.7% of the textile products export market. .
In the first half of the year, the Japanese market occupied the third place in China’s clothing export market and the fourth place in the textile products market. Clothing exports to Japan were US$6.80 billion, accounting for 9.5% of China’s clothing export market; textile products exports to Japan were US$2.34 billion, accounting for 4.8% of the textile products export market. According to Japanese customs statistics, Japan imported 981.7 billion yen (approximately US$8.99 billion) in textiles and clothing from my country in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, accounting for 54.5% of Japan’s imported textiles and clothing market.
05
The western region is experiencing strong growth; Fujian and Shandong grew rapidly In the first half of the year, exports of textiles and clothing from the western region of my country grew strongly, while exports from the eastern region achieved growth. Specifically, the western region exported US$6.96 billion in textiles and clothing in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, accounting for 4.9% of my country’s textile and clothing export market; the eastern region exported US$121.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, accounting for 86.7% of my country’s textile and clothing export market. ; The exports of the central region were US$10.13 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%; the exports of the three northeastern provinces were US$1.78 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%.
Looking at the top five exporting provinces and cities, Fujian, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu all experienced double-digit growth in exports of textiles and clothing. The five provinces and cities in order of export value are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian. They exported textiles and clothing of US$36.78 billion, US$22.66 billion, US$21.71 billion, US$13.53 billion, and US$12.23 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18.6% and 11.3% respectively. %, 4.5%, 28.0% and 35.8%.
06
Exports face challenges throughout the year Many tests of the epidemic are still spreading around the world, the world economic recovery is unstable and uneven, and the external environment faced by my country’s textile exports is complex.
The world economic recovery is uneven. With the promotion of vaccines and the unremitting efforts of various countries to restore the economy, the world economy has accelerated its recovery, and international organizations have raised their expectations for world economic and trade growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the “World Economic Outlook Report” in July, predicting that the global economy will grow by 6% in 2021, which is the same as the previous forecast. However, the IMF raised its growth forecast for developed economies by 0.5 percentage points to 5.6%, and lowered its growth forecast for emerging markets and developing economies by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3%. The latest “Trade Statistics and Outlook” report of the World Trade Organization (WTO) points out that world trade will usher in a strong but uneven recovery, and global trade is expected to grow by 8% in 2021.
Uncertainty in the development of the global epidemic has increased. According to data from the World Health Organization, the Delta variant strain has appeared in more than 120 economies around the world, and the spread of the variant strain is truly alarming. But on the one hand, the vaccine is still protective against the Delta variant strain, and countries are also advancing the vaccination process. On the other hand, this round of epidemic has not brought about a significant increase in deaths. Therefore, although the rise of the epidemic caused by the Delta mutant strain will interfere with the economic recovery process to some extent, it will not interrupt the economic recovery trend of developed countries.
Cost pressure on textile foreign trade companies has increased. Although the epidemic is still spreading around the world, the global supply chain has been impacted, and port operating efficiency has dropped significantly, the demand for container transportation market has recovered well. According to Clarkson’s forecast, global container shipping demand will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in 2021. With the active container transportation market, international freight rates have increased significantly. The Drewry World Container Index shows that the spot price of a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose to US$10,503 at the end of July, a year-on-year surge of 258%, increasing cost pressure on textile foreign trade companies and squeezing profits.
In addition, the external risks faced by the textile industry exports such as the reshaping of the industrial chain, trade order and political structure caused by non-economic factors are still relatively obvious. </p
