According to Brazilian CONAB statistics, as of August 21, 2021, Brazil’s cotton harvest progress was 73.5% (the harvest progress the previous week was 66.7%), which was more than 10 percentage points lower than the same period last year; among which the main production area of South Matogo Roseau and Mato Grosso states reached 100%, which is higher than the same period in 2020; however, the harvest progress in Piauí, Bahia, Goiás and other cotton areas was significantly lower than the same period in 2020 due to weather reasons.
The latest forecast from CONAB (Brazilian National Food Supply Company) shows that the cotton planting area in 2020/21 will be 1.36 million hectares, a decrease of 18% from the previous year, and cotton production is expected to be 2.341 million hectares. tons (same as previously reported production), but 22% lower than the previous season. Exports in 2020/21 are expected to be 2.1 million tons, down 1.2% from 2019/20. USDA’s latest monthly report estimates that Brazilian cotton production and export volume in 2020/21 will be 2.341 million tons and 2.398 million tons respectively (export volume is greater than production by 57,000 tons). The Brazilian cotton annual export volume forecast is significantly higher than CONAB.
Several foreign businessmen and cotton traders reported that as of late August, due to the generally higher than expected purchase prices and the lack of domestic cotton supply in Brazil, Western Cotton Farmers 2020/ The sales progress of seed cotton in 2021 is relatively fast, exceeding 80% (pre-sale of seed cotton by farmers and farmers is relatively common); however, the contracted sales progress of Brazilian cotton processing enterprises and exporters in 2020/21 lint is lagging behind, obviously lagging behind that in 2018 /19, 2019/20.
According to industry analysis, first, since August, the main force of ICE cotton futures has continued to rise on the back of 90 cents/pound (it hit a new high of 96.71 cents/pound since 2013). , the purchaser’s ON-CALL price point contract was forced to be postponed or canceled; secondly, sea freight on routes from China and Southeast Asian countries to Europe and the United States continued to rise sharply, and containers were “hard to find”, even if the August/December shipping date was signed, 2020/21 Whether the annual Brazilian cotton can be loaded, shipped, arrived at the port, and delivered in a timely manner is subject to change. Third, according to relevant reports and field visits by some companies, affected by the weather, the grade and quality of cotton in the main producing area of Mato Grosso have declined. Indicators are lower than expected and leaf dust is on the high side. Buyers from various countries (including cotton traders) are in a wait-and-see mood, waiting for the new cotton processing commodity inspection indicators to be “released”. </p
