August is coming to an end, and just when the public thinks that the market situation will enter September with a smooth operation, the chemical fiber market is full of topics and excitement.
The news said:
Mainstream gathering Polyester factories continue to implement the second round of production reduction plan
Due to low polyester profits and high inventories, polyester factories are under pressure, and some polyester companies have begun to reduce production. It is understood that domestic mainstream polyester factories Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi, and Tiansheng all plan to reduce production by approximately 20%, with a total production reduction of approximately 4 million tons, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. At the same time, some other polyester companies have also successively announced production reduction plans, which currently involve parking and reducing production capacity at 4.536 million tons. Recently, it was reported that some polyester filament varieties in polyester factories are still at a loss, and mainstream polyester factories continue to implement the second round of production reduction plans.
The rise and fall of crude oil makes the heartbeat
Polyester raw materials “change their face”
It is not just the gathering of polyester production capacity for maintenance that has become a hot topic, the international Oil prices have also started a “heartbeat” market with ups and downs.
Recently, the international crude oil market has started a “roller coaster” market, playing a “heartbeat”. Oil prices have shown a trend of skyrocketing rises and falls, with the frequency and amplitude obviously accelerating. For example, U.S. oil prices started from a relatively high position of nearly 72 US dollars per barrel, and went down all the way, falling below two important resistance levels of 68 and 65 US dollars, and once fell to 64.6 US dollars. /barrel, setting a new three-month low, and then rebounded wildly in the next two days, with oil prices rebounding to above $70.
Under the influence of the sharp rise and fall in international oil prices, polyesters such as PTA and ethylene glycol have The raw materials also staged a “face-changing” show. Both rose and fell by nearly 5%. However, compared to PTA and ethylene glycol, the entire polyester industry chain has been in a downward trend recently, and has experienced four large-scale profit promotions this month. From the perspective of profits, the profits of downstream polyester have also deteriorated due to continuous price reduction promotions, and the entire market is filled with a gloomy atmosphere.
And oil prices, as the source of chemicals,
Will the sharp rise after the plunge cause waves in the polyester market again?
Oil prices have risen. Recently, some polyester manufacturers have released rumors of price increases: as polyester is overhauled again, the supply of a small number of varieties may tighten and balance, and then it will decrease. In the promotion and volume model, it is recommended that weaving companies take advantage of the promotion to buy raw materials, and then traders place orders because they see the prices of upstream raw materials rising, and a wave of market conditions occurs.
Indeed, polyester production capacity is undergoing intensive maintenance, resulting in a sharp drop in the operating rate of the polyester industry. The overall load of the polyester market has dropped, which means that market supply will inevitably decrease, which has boosted the polyester market from the supply side.
However, in the face of possible price increases, will weaving companies buy it? Market price is the most direct reflection of the market situation. It is not difficult to find from recent market comparison that international oil prices fluctuate frequently. Although there is still a certain cost impact on the polyester raw materials PTA and MEG, the influence is indirectly transmitted to the polyester surface. Significantly weakened. For the polyester market, the decisive factor remains supply and demand.
Judging from this year’s market, both chemical fiber factories and weaving factories have continued to increase their production capacity, but the demand for fabrics is obviously sluggish and there is no sign of increase. At this time, suddenly Traders have become treasures because it was this guerrilla army that hoarded a large amount of raw materials and fabrics in the first half of the year. In the current situation of insufficient orders, traders who hold a large amount of gray fabrics should immediately sell goods to drive down the price of fabrics, or should they wait until the peak season and face a more sluggish market directly? So what are the chances of winning? Let’s not talk about your chances of winning. I’m afraid you need to think about how you will face rising rents and rising capital costs in the future. Besides, there are already many traders doing this.
Although it is common for raw materials to rise and fall, it may fall today and rise again tomorrow. So what do the downstream weaving bosses think now?
It can be said that starting from the second half of this year, when it comes to raw materials, the old experience of “buying up and not buying down” has become outdated. The reason why the previous experience of “buy up but not down” works is that weaving companies have money in hand, and the market can pay for the rising raw materials, and the price of cloth can rise together with the price of raw materials. In this way, the direct relationship between the price of polyester raw materials and production and sales will form a positive feedback. Simply put, “the more it goes up, the more you buy, and the more you buy, the more it goes up.” Although the weaving boss will complain verbally, in fact, as long as the cloth can keep selling It is also profitable to go.
But in today’s market conditions, firstly, weaving companies don’t have much money, and secondly, there are so many inventories on the market that the price of cloth cannot rise at once, and no one “ Take over”. In the words of the cloth boss, in the current market situation, the price of gray cloth is determined by market demand and has little to do with the price of raw materials. In this case, most of the raw materials will still be purchased for rigid needs. In terms of its own working capital and preventing raw material prices from increasing,Considering the losses caused by fluctuations, we are quite cautious about procurement. The procurement of raw materials is mostly dominated by small-scale stockpiling, and there is a lack of large-volume procurement measures. Therefore, the pace of demand for raw materials has slowed down significantly, making the demand for polyester filament in the future. will continue to be suppressed. As expected, with the sharp rise and fall of raw materials and the reduction of polyester equipment production, coinciding with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the short-term fluctuations in the chemical fiber weaving market may become more severe! </p
