From now to the end of 2021, polyester commodities should be mainly bought at bargain prices. The reasons are as follows: First, the cost support of polyester commodities is still strong, and the prices of crude oil and coal are unlikely to weaken in a trend, and demand Increasing supply and limited supply are common features of energy varieties. Second, the supply of PTA and MEG is generally controllable. MEG will undergo large-scale maintenance in the second half of the year, and PTA’s new production capacity has been released this year. Third, the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are traditional peak seasons for consumption. Although higher sea freight has weakened the enthusiasm of Europe and the United States to replenish stocks, the peak season for domestic consumption can still be expected.
Chemical products have cost support
The crude oil market is currently in a sideways trend Organize the situation. In early August, the epidemic broke out in many places in China. The government encouraged people not to travel unless necessary, and implemented closed management of medium and high-risk areas. Traffic congestion duration in eight large cities, including Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Changsha, all dropped sharply, and domestic air flight volume It also plummeted by more than 30% in a short period of time. Affected by this, crude oil prices fell slightly. In mid-August, domestic new cases and medium- and high-risk areas both turned around. The impact of the epidemic has gradually faded, and the probability of crude oil prices weakening is very small. At the same time, domestic coal prices fell temporarily due to the negative impact of guaranteed supply and the off-season demand. Considering my country’s mid- and long-term plans for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, as well as low coal inventories, the probability of coal prices continuing to weaken is not high. In the later period, It is more likely to maintain a wide oscillation trend.
On the other hand, so far in 2021, PTA and MEG production capacity have experienced large-scale expansion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16% and 26% respectively. Despite this, the inventories of the two varieties have not accumulated much. The main reason behind this is that lower processing fees have limited factory production enthusiasm. In the next few months of 2021, PTA social inventory and warehouse receipts will be lower than in the first half of the year. PTA has no new production capacity. Mainstream PTA factories will be more motivated to actively control market supply; MEG still has plans to add new production capacity. However, August is the peak period for overseas equipment maintenance, and September to December is the peak period for domestic coal chemical companies. Therefore, the possibility of substantial accumulation of MEG inventory is low.
Traditional consumption peak season is coming
The terminal of polyester is textile and clothing , Textile and clothing have very strong seasonal patterns, and sales in the second half of the year are usually higher than in the first half. Judging from the absolute value trend of domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats in the past ten years, June and July are seasonal lows every year, August and July are basically the same, and gradually rise from September to December. We think 2021 will be no exception. There are “Double 11” and “Double 12” consumption peaks every year in China, and overseas there is a consumption frenzy during Christmas and New Year.
The domestic consumption peak will still come in the second half of the year, but there is a certain degree of uncertainty overseas. Compared with 2020, Europe and the United States have higher vaccination rates in 2021, and consumption enthusiasm in Europe and the United States is also higher. We tracked the data and found that the inventory-to-sales ratio of U.S. apparel wholesalers is currently at its lowest since 2010, and wholesalers have a need to replenish their inventory. However, the epidemic has affected the efficiency of container transshipment, with shipping capacity declining sharply and freight rising sharply. At this stage, freight is the biggest constraint on the growth of domestic exports. Although freight prices have increased, my country’s container throughput still increased by 15% year-on-year from January to June, and by 8.8% compared with the same period in 2019. Among the main routes in the week of August 15, the freight rates from China to the West Coast and East Coast of the United States and the freight rates from Europe to the East Coast of the United States both experienced month-on-month decreases. If sea freight rates can decline, it will greatly boost my country’s textile and apparel exports.
To sum up, we believe that the cost side of polyester raw materials has certain support in the third and fourth quarters, and at the same time, the demand side Expectations are good and investors need not be too pessimistic. If the sea freight rate drops, the price of polyester raw materials may be as high as before the impact. </p
