[Introduction]
The long-awaited month-end promotion has arrived as scheduled. Polyester filament manufacturers have concentrated on profit-making for shipments, while downstream users have a certain demand for replenishment. In the morning, local production and sales of polyester filament have increased. . We are about to enter the traditional peak demand season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. Can polyester filament change its sluggish situation and rise to the challenge?
The effects of several rounds of promotions by polyester filament manufacturers in August were not as good as expected. Overall, the market showed a slight accumulation of inventory in August. During this period, mainstream production Enterprises’ centralized production reduction and price guarantee have not changed the situation of accumulated inventory. As the inventory pressure of enterprises increases, the largest promotion in the month is coming as scheduled. In the morning, the POY discount space of mainstream manufacturers is 600-700 yuan/ton, and the FDY discount space is 500-500 yuan/ton. 600 yuan/ton, and the DTY discount space is 500-600 yuan/ton. Small and medium-sized production companies also follow the promotion footsteps of large manufacturers, with quotations reduced by 100-400 yuan, and discounts can be negotiated for large quantities. As of 11:30, the mainstream production and sales of the sample factory were 286.7%, an increase of 260.8% from the previous trading day. The higher production and sales were around 700% and 900%. Overall, POY lived up to expectations and performed well in this round of promotions. FDY and DTY The production and sales ratio is unsatisfactory, and the production and sales of some companies were below 50% in the morning. In the afternoon, the local negotiation space continued to expand, and downstream users bought at low prices. In the afternoon, local production and sales continued to increase, with the highest production and sales near 1000%, and the effect of corporate destocking was significant.
Figure 2021 price trend comparison of mainstream polyester filament models
Source: Longzhong Information
The traditional demand peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is approaching. Can polyester filament prices hold up and open an upward channel? Taking polyester filament POY150D/48F as an example, the average market price in August was 7,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.7% from the average price in July. The low point of POY was in January, the monthly average price was 6,069 yuan/ton, and the high point was in July. , the monthly average price is 7,756 yuan/ton, and the frequency of promotions has accelerated since mid-July, and the focus of POY negotiations continues to decline. However, compared with the price at the beginning of the year, the current POY price has not yet reached a low point, although the polymer raw materials have increased by 30% compared with the beginning of the year. Nearby, but the average POY cash flow in August is also higher than the level at the beginning of the year. Therefore, for downstream users, it has not yet reached the stage of concentrated bargain hunting, and is still focusing on phased replenishment. In this round of promotions, the average daily production and sales are expected to be around 400%, and the purchasing volume of some downstream users is around one week. After the centralized replenishment, there is no willingness to purchase in the short term. Therefore, in early September, the polyester filament market will enter a state of price and no market. As the next wave of purchasing cycles expires, the market still has expectations for promotions. On the premise that there is no major change in terminal demand, it is difficult for polyester filament to reverse the mode of promotional shipments. Most autumn and winter fabrics have been stocked in advance in the second quarter, and the demand for polyester filament has been overdrawn in advance. The demand for the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” peak seasons is also difficult to reflect, and the market still needs to be treated with caution.
The main driving force for the price increase of polyester filament at the beginning of the year and at the end of June came from the cost side. Therefore, the market still needs to pay attention to the trends of raw materials in September. In 2021, the launch of new production capacity of the main raw material PTA will still be relatively large. Against the background of oversupply, the upward pressure on PTA futures is increasing, and the support for polyester filament is limited. New investment in polyester filament projects in the second half of the year is expected to be more than 2 million tons. Even if the newly launched water-jet looms and texturing machines in northern Jiangsu and other places are put into use as scheduled, considering the current situation of terminal textile and clothing orders, it is difficult for the overall demand to increase , so there are many polyester filament companies launching the second round of production reduction plans to protect prices. </p
