According to cotton yarn traders in Qingdao, Ningbo, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places, not only inquiries and transactions for Pakistan’s low-count siro spinning yarn have been light since mid-February, but also C21-32S air-jet spinning and rapier yarns with active transactions in December and January. The shipment of yarn for looms (including bleaching and dyeing) has also weakened significantly. JC20S-JC32S yarn sales in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia have been weak for more than four consecutive weeks. Imported yarn ordering and consumption areas such as Nantong, Changzhou, Weifang, Zibo, Foshan, and Zhongshan Fall into “silence”.
According to industry analysis, the main reason why Chinese weaving factories and middlemen “don’t buy it” or even strongly resist imported cotton yarn is that the outer yarn “shoots itself in the foot” and is not worthy of sympathy and care, and this “inner yarn replaces the outer yarn”. The signs of “yarn” are becoming more and more obvious.
First of all, the trend of “upside down” inner and outer yarns is expanding
As domestic cotton prices in India continued to rise in December and January (the ex-factory price of S-6 ginners rose sharply from 72-73 cents/pound to 83-84 cents/pound), yarn mills’ profits shrank and they were forced to significantly increase cotton yarn prices. FOB, CNF, and CIF quotations are used to transfer cost risks; in addition, ICE futures rose by more than 500 points during the Spring Festival, spot prices of US cotton, Central Asian cotton, African cotton, etc. followed suit, and cotton yarns from Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia and other origins also followed India The direct result of the sharp rise in yarn is that the price of “futures yarn” quoted at the port (customs clearance is equivalent to the RMB price) and the ex-factory price of domestic medium-sized textile mills is “inverted” by 700-1,000 yuan/ton, so there is no competition for foreign yarn. force?
Secondly, reserve cotton rounds are shipped to cloth and garment factories to “support”
According to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance (No. 9, 2016), the rotation sales of cotton reserves in 2017 will begin on March 6, and the deadline is tentatively set at the end of August. The daily listed sales volume is 30,000 tons. The understanding of downstream enterprises is as follows: first, the cotton reserve resources for rotation in 2017 are very sufficient, and are expected to be no less than 3.5 million tons, so there is no way to talk about a cotton gap; second, the cotton reserves are mainly low- to medium-quality and low-color resources. , domestic small and medium-sized spinning mills have the opportunity to start high-load production, and the supply of cotton yarns with counts of 40S and below will increase significantly. When imported yarns have no advantages in price, quality, delivery, and settlement, how can they be compared with domestically produced yarns? Yarn “competing on the same stage”?
Third, based on the Cotlook A, CNCotton B and CCIndex 328 index, the reserve cotton reserve price in 2017 may be 15,000-15,300 yuan/ton. However, considering that the grade and quality discount of the reserve cotton is relatively large, so the current price The prices of cotton and cotton yarn are both a shock, and domestic cotton yarn quotations will see a significant decline.
Once again, after the holiday, the price of gray fabrics and clothing increased with “loud thunder and light rain”, and the problem of “intestinal obstruction” in the industrial chain became prominent.
According to the survey, driven by the surge in CF1705 contracts around the Spring Festival by nearly 1,200 yuan/ton, cotton spot prices rising by 400-500 yuan/ton, and cotton yarn prices rising by 500-800 yuan/ton, weaving mills tried to increase the quotations of some types of gray fabrics by 0.10 after the holiday. -0.20 yuan/meter, but it was immediately resisted and “stunned” by clothing factories and foreign trade companies. Most of the actual transaction prices were still implemented according to the contract before the Spring Festival.
Faced with the “unscrupulous” surge in foreign yarns (Vietnamese yarn, Indian yarn, etc.), Chinese buyers can only reduce or even suspend orders, and instead increase their purchases of domestic yarns with smaller increases and negotiable prices. Some foreign trade companies said that since it is difficult for foreign customers to accept “fixed exchange rates” and RMB settlement, most domestic garment and fabric factories have adopted an “avoidance” attitude towards medium- and long-term orders due to the risk of RMB depreciation.
Extended reading: The “three pillars” pattern of domestic cotton yarn is taking shape
Benefiting from the state’s support policy for Xinjiang’s cotton textile industry, Xinjiang’s textile scale has developed further in 2016, with both production capacity and variety quality becoming more complete. According to data released by relevant institutions, Xinjiang has completed the development of the cotton spinning industry ahead of schedule in 2016. Planning goals, the “three pillars” situation is firmly taking shape!
According to statistics from relevant agencies, as of 2016, Xinjiang’s viscose fiber production capacity has exceeded 800,000 tons, the number of looms is close to 18,000, the number of built spindles exceeds 13 million, and the clothing production capacity has reached 150 million pieces. From January to November 2016, the production and operation conditions of textile enterprises above designated size in Xinjiang were relatively ideal, with cotton yarn output reaching 951,100 tons, cotton cloth output reaching 154 million meters, clothing production reaching 29.3389 million pieces, and chemical fiber pulp output reaching 362,100 tons, and chemical fiber output reached 617,200 tons. Judging from the production capacity and output data, as the development of Xinjiang’s textile and apparel industry becomes increasingly complete and mature in the future, there is still a lot of room for growth.
According to other statistics, in 2016, the fixed asset investment in Xinjiang’s textile and clothing industry was 47.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%; the number of textile and clothing companies reached 1,964, 504 more than at the end of 2015. Other data show that since 2014, Xinjiang’s textile and garment industry has invested a total of 89.37 billion yuan in fixed assets, exceeding the total investment in the previous 35 years.
In 2015, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Development of Xinjiang’s Textile and Garment Industry and Promoting Employment.” According to the Guiding Opinions of the State Council, in the first stage from 2015 to 2017, the cotton spinning production capacity reached 12 million spindles. The nearby conversion rate is 20%, and the employment capacity of the entire industry chain reaches 20%.About 300,000 people. In the second phase from 2018 to 2020, the cotton spinning production capacity will reach 18 million spindles, the cotton on-site conversion rate will remain at around 26%, and the viscose production capacity will be controlled at 900,000 tons. It can be seen that the industrial planning and development indicators for 2017 have been completed ahead of schedule.
With the support of various industrial policies, cotton yarn produced in Xinjiang is currently 3,600 yuan cheaper per ton than in coastal areas and 4,600 yuan cheaper than in Vietnam. Xinjiang yarn is rising rapidly with its price advantage. The “three-legged” pattern of mainland yarn, Xinjiang yarn and imported yarn is firmly taking shape.
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