In the past two months, PTA positions, transactions and fluctuations have all increased significantly. Especially last week, the market was quite violent, and the industry began to suffer serious losses. After communication, many people in the industry may think that it is oversold or that they can gradually buy. We also visited the mainstream participating institutions in the PTA industry together with our colleagues from the energy and chemical industry investment institutions, and exchanged specific views on recent industry trends, and exchanged our respective views on future market trends based on discussions on the recent PTA market trends. Combining the records of previous exchanges with other industry professionals, we have sorted out the overall situation of the current PTA market as well as the main views and logic behind the market trends.
According to the current market situation, the author has communicated with industry participants, some industry entities have participated in short selling during the 5900-5500 decline, and the fundamentals can be explained and consistent with most of them. However, when the market reached around 5400 and after, industry people did not fully agree with it. Especially in the 5300-5000 range, the entire PTA industry suffered serious cash flow losses. The largest manufacturer, YS, cost around 500 (last year, 430, the president of YS said it was definitely losing money, and other people in the industry understood it. In recent years, miscellaneous expenses have increased slightly and I think it takes 500 to even out), while PTA’s dynamic cash flow has hit 300-400, and in recent days it has reached 300-350. If the actual monthly raw material cost is calculated, it is 905*0.5+monthly average price*0.5=0.5 *(4900+4780)=4840, the processing fee is only about 200. As for the PX link, many industry insiders believe that the 360 price difference can be supported. At the same time, the basic lower limit for crude oil is 50-45. Under this circumstance, the buying intention of industry insiders is still quite high below 5300, especially in the 5200-5000 range. of.
Specifically, the overall supply and demand side of the industry is still not pessimistic, and the trend is not much different. Supply and demand actually mainly depends on the returning equipment. At present, there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether XL can be opened in the second half of the year. If it is opened, it is generally believed that it will only be 1.5 million tons (4.5 million tons of TA in Zhangzhou, raw material PX purchase under full operation is a relatively big problem), and the 1.4 million tons of the original Far East, judging from the current preparations, it is also very difficult to start in the first half of the year; from the perspective of maintenance, the probability of supply reduction in the second quarter is very high, but the degree of reduction is still there Greater flexibility. On the demand side, it is mainly due to the lack of growth in terminal demand. From a profit perspective, the short-term polyester production is not a big problem. However, the high inventory situation is a negative factor. It needs to be seen whether it can be eliminated. The demand side has begun to accumulate some risks. Of course, overall It is still optimistic (looking at the overall economic environment, the probability that the consumer side will gradually recover from low levels in the later period is more than 50%, but the certainty is not high enough and we need to wait), but it has become a state of cautious optimism and requires observation. Comprehensive supply and demand, there is a high probability that the second quarter will be better than the first quarter. The degree of improvement depends on the degree of supply reduction, that is, the degree of maintenance, and the degree of improvement on the demand side. Although both aspects are currently trending towards the better, there is still need for Observe and confirm.
As for the price, when it runs to around 5,000, the risk point is basically only the cost side, whether it will collapse beyond expectations. If there is no collapse beyond expectations, then the price will either improve significantly based on supply and demand expectations, or driven by the actual improvement in supply and demand There is an increase.
On the upstream cost side, a month’s loss is actually of limited significance. The key depends on its impact on the manufacturer’s behavior whether to overhaul and reduce production. Our judgment on the later trend of PX is important. In fact, it is the price difference judgment, where the lower limit is, and then crude oil. , where can the center of gravity be achieved? Judging from the current response of OPEC and the cost of shale oil, we can still have considerable confidence in the Brent 45-50 range as the lower limit; for the judgment of the PX-naphtha price difference, the cost line of 320 is superimposed As for the maintenance expectation, our judgment of 350 is relatively conservative, so the cost side calculates the PTA lower limit of 4700-4900 based on the 450 processing fee. There is a strong basis for the futures premium to be estimated in a small range as a neutral conservative estimate. The price should be between The level above 4700-4900 is very supportive. We tend to see very strong support in the futures level of 4800-5000. For reference on the possibility of extreme situations (5% probability), futures discount + spot processing fee 450, PX spread 350, oil price 47-48 corresponds to around 4700; especially extreme (3% probability), of course, all upstream profit links are affected Falling, front-month futures have a discount, and Brent oil falls to 42-43, and may reach 4200-4300; the most extreme (1% probability), so the upstream link loses money, futures discount + spot processing fee 350, Brent oil Below 40, 3900-4000.
The core risk concerns in the later period: the collapse risk on the cost side – the bottom of the PX price difference and crude oil; whether demand will worsen beyond expectations.
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