Since the beginning of this year, due to multiple negative factors such as the collapse of upstream raw materials and weak downstream demand, the price of polyester filament has not improved as expected, and the market has begun to experience a situation of price and no market. Especially in the first half of the month, the performance was obvious. The shipment prices of some manufacturers Frequent looseness. The cumulative decline reached 1,000-1,200 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 10%.
After entering mid-March, the stabilization of crude oil and PTA has given support to the polyester filament market sentiment. Some polyester manufacturers have increased prices for some varieties by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the atmosphere has shown signs of slight recovery again. But on the other hand, due to the stabilization of upstream raw materials such as PTA, high inventory at the polyester end, and the peak season in the downstream, industry players began to have divergent views on the market outlook. When the market reaches a fork in the road, will the market continue to rise or remain at a high level? Falling back? What is the situation of the power game among all parties in the market fundamentals?
The early negative factors have been digested, and international oil prices may rebound in the short term
Judging from the recent market fluctuations, the polyester filament market price fluctuations are obviously more strongly affected by the intervention of crude oil. The U.S. dollar unexpectedly fell after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled on March 15. At the same time, the more dovish interpretation of the policy statement also increased the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, which provided effective support for the rebound in oil prices. U.S. WTI crude oil April futures closed higher that day. US$1.14 was reported at US$48.86 per barrel. Considering that the current market view of crude oil is that space is exchanged for time, once crude oil hits the bottom successfully, the market’s bottom-buying sentiment is likely to heat up quickly and push the market price higher. However, given that the current market supply and demand are still out of balance, Therefore, while the market may rebound in the short term, it still cannot avoid the embarrassment of mid-line adjustments.
Polyester raw material end brake: PTA5000 points are expected to stop falling
Since mid-February, the main PTA futures contract has increased its position and reached an intraday high of 5,912 yuan/ton, a new high since October 8, 2014. However, the highs were too cold, and then PTA reversed the strong market with a big negative line and entered a downward channel. In just one month, PTA’s main force fell from a high of over 5,900 to the current level of around 5,000. After reaching 5,000 points, PTA has gradually stopped falling and stabilized recently. The reason is mainly because the current cash flow losses of the entire PTA industry are serious, and the processing fee is only about 200. It is understood that the average cost line in the industry is around 320 yuan. Even between 2015 and 2016, the low point of PTA processing fees occurred on July 15, 2015, when the processing fees were only around 250 yuan. Therefore, judging from the current situation, there is little room for PTA processing fees to be narrowed.
On the other hand, the market has been worried about the return of Far East and Xianglu devices. According to the current market situation, the possibility of the device returning is relatively small. In addition, judging from the maintenance of the PTA factory, the probability of supply reduction in the second quarter is very high. Due to the sharp contraction in PTA processing fees, PTA factories have a strong willingness to increase prices, or may actively reduce production in the short term. From the perspective of annual production demand, supply expectations for the first half of the year are still optimistic.
High inventory, high profits, the “time bomb” of polyester market
At present, polyester factories have been operating at a high level of more than 80%, and after the rapid decline of PTA and MEG, the profits of polyester factories have been greatly improved. As a result of the substantial increase in profits, polyester factories are operating at full capacity. However, the industrial chain has not been well conducted, resulting in slow sales and inventory accumulation in the polyester yarn market. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the current overall polyester market inventory has risen to around 17-23 days, which has been above the industry average level of half a month.
On the other hand, polyester factory products have maintained higher cash flow than in previous years. According to monitoring, although the current profit of polyester products has dropped from the previous period, it remains high. According to the data on the 17th, the profit of POY150D is 353 yuan. , the profit of FDY 150D is 258 yuan, and the profit of DTY150D is 783 yuan.
On the one hand, there are high inventories, and on the other hand, there are high profits that make polyester factories salivate. If downstream demand drives a rebound in production and sales in the later period and prompts the inventory to decrease, then the market will take advantage of it to rise. Otherwise, it will always be a “ticking time bomb” that inhibits the market recovery. “!
Is peak season coming? Even downstream weaving has not yet smelled the peak season
The first half of the year is the traditional peak season for the weaving market, but now it has reached the second half of the golden period. When the author recently visited the market, I learned that although the market is agitated, there is still no obvious peak season atmosphere. Some weaving manufacturers reported that although orders have been followed up, they are all gradual and there has been no surge in orders due to the arrival of the peak season. On the other hand, in previous years, foreign trade in the market was better than domestic trade, but this year the foreign trade situation is severe.It is common for the quantity of orders to be small but the quality to be high. It can be said that the market is divided into two levels, and the downstream weaving companies themselves have not yet smelled the peak season.
</p
