Around the Qingming Festival, international crude oil continued to rebound, which provided support to the PTA market to a certain extent. However, the futures market coincided with the month change of the main contract, and the movement of warehouse receipts for the 05 contract to the 09 contract was small, and the PX market continued to fall, and the cost faced Market support was poor and the PTA market returned to decline.
The PTA market has experienced great ups and downs since 2017. It first rose from around 5,304 yuan/ton in early January to the highest point of 5,912 yuan/ton. When the market was unanimously optimistic that the PTA price would break through the 6,000 yuan mark, it began to turn downwards. It fell rapidly to 4866 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 17.69%.
Around the Qingming Festival, international crude oil continued to rebound, which provided support to the PTA market to a certain extent. However, the futures market coincided with the month change of the main contract, and the movement of warehouse receipts for the 05 contract to the 09 contract was small, and the PX market continued to fall, and the cost faced Market support was poor and the PTA market returned to decline.
From the perspective of the spot market, the PTA spot market has synchronized with the futures trend. After “Valentine’s Day”, the PTA spot market can be said to have continued its downward trend. Around the Qingming Festival, boosted by rising crude oil and some downstream factories’ pre-holiday stockings, the PTA spot market saw a small rebound. However, this rebound was short-lived, and the market soon opened a downward channel. In this round of decline, when should the market stop?
From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals:
Currently, PTA’s main factories, Yisheng Chemical and Tongkun Petrochemical, are undergoing maintenance. The supply side has decreased compared with the previous period, and the PTA market has entered a destocking mode. However, as the main factory maintenance equipment is restarted again, supply pressure may reappear, so the supply side has not yet supported PTA. The market rebounded.
Although the operating rate of downstream polyester continues to be at a high level, which seems to support the demand for the PTA market, the current actual demand has not improved significantly, and there is no gap in the raw material inventory of polyester factories. As a result, it has become the norm for factories to just need to restock, so the demand There is still no strong positive support for the PTA market.
From a futures perspective:
The commodity atmosphere has continued to be weak recently, and the main PTA contract 1709 has also shown weakness. From a technical point of view, the current short-term capital pressure is relatively high, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have formed a death valley, indicating that the market may continue to be weak. However, from a technical perspective, At present, the decline in the PTA market is basically in place. Under the weak market conditions of the chemical industry sector, the market still needs to oscillate and bottom out. Based on the above analysis, it is expected that today’s main PTA contract will detect support at the 5,000-yuan integer mark below 1709, and the 20-day moving average above will be under heavy pressure. In the short term, the market will still need to oscillate and bottom out.
Taken together, although PTA spot fundamentals have not formed a support for the market rebound, the possibility of further decline is small. During the traditional seasonal peak season, some industry insiders still have expectations for the PTA market to improve. Therefore, the current correlation between PTA futures and spot prices is relatively high. Pay attention to spot prices as well as futures trends. The 5,000 yuan integer mark below 1709, the main PTA futures, has strong support. If this line of defense cannot be broken, then the PTA market may now be in the process of oscillation and bottoming; if The main contract fell below this mark, and it is expected that the PTA market may continue to be weak in the short term.
</p
