Introduction: Since the beginning of the year, the supply of goods in the sticky short market has been relatively abundant, but the demand has been difficult to support. The price trend of the sticky short market is not as strong as that in the same period in 2015 and 2016. The industry has advanced capacity expansion plans at the end of the year and in 2018, and the subsequent supply and demand battle will become even more anxious.
After one month, the market is back again
After the Qingming Festival, manufacturers of sticky shorts have generally accumulated orders and have completed their execution, and are eager to ship. However, the demand is huge, and manufacturers negotiate one by one. In the first half of the year, the market saw heavy trading at low prices.
Recently, the short-term market has been priceless and low-price trading news has reappeared.
After one month, the price dropped by about 1,000 yuan
In April, the market volume was large and the low-price trading price closed at 15,200-15,500 yuan/ton (acceptance). Recently, some factories have promoted shipments at prices of 14,000-14,500 yuan/ton (acceptance). After one month, the market price dropped by a thousand yuan. about.
Monthly conclusion reappears after one month
After the Qingming Festival, the settlement of sticky shorts manufacturers becomes more flexible. Recently, some factories have introduced a monthly sales policy.
One month ago, we successfully stopped the decline. Can this round be the same?
The market price of sticky shorts dropped frequently, and manufacturers’ selling prices gradually approached the cost line. In mid-April, they showed their willingness to stop the decline, and monthly settlements were gradually cancelled. Customers in early settlements set prices in advance, and the market stopped falling smoothly.
Since April, the market prices of domestic dissolving pulp and sticky pulp have both shown a downward trend, with the price of dissolving pulp falling more than that of sticky pulp. According to the current sticky short-term cost price calculation, the manufacturer’s cost line is conservatively estimated to be around 14,000 yuan/ton (acceptance). The market low price has dropped to this level, but the downstream purchasing interest is still in vain.
Abundant supply but slightly weak demand support
Since the beginning of the year, the operating rate of the sticky short-term industry has been running at a high level above 88%, the industry average operating rate is 91%, and the market supply is abundant.
Since late February, trading in the rayon yarn market has gradually weakened. The demand for conventional varieties such as R30S and R36S (ring spinning) was average. During this period, yarn prices only rebounded in the short term, but showed an overall downward trend. Only R45S sold relatively well.
According to customs statistics, from January to March 2017, textile exports were 160.378 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; clothing exports were 218.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, showing a recovery trend. The cumulative export volume of rayon yarn increased by 37.0% year-on-year, while the viscose yarn decreased by 4.0% year-on-year.
As a traditional textile and apparel exporter, the downstream and terminal export situation of sticky shorts has improved from January to March, boosting the market demand for sticky shorts. The exports of Nianshan itself decreased in a narrow range and were slightly weaker. You can continue to pay attention to whether the subsequent demand can provide strong support for sticky short-term support.
Demand is weak, and bidding transactions are inevitable in the short-term market. After mid-March, market prices accelerated their decline. The price difference between high and low prices in the market since the beginning of the year is 2,500 yuan/ton, with a volatility of 14.4%.
There is insufficient confidence in the market demand. In recent communications with market participants, the topic of industry production restrictions has been touched upon many times. If you want to reverse the market and prices, it may be most effective to proactively reduce the supply of goods and operate from the most fundamental balance of supply and demand. But it depends on whether the actual implementation can be in place.
Survival of the fittest drives the industry forward
Looking at the market price trend of sticky shorts from 2015 to the present, the overall market price in 2015 and 2016 showed an upward trend in shock. However, from the beginning of 2017 to the present, the market price trend is not as good as in previous years.
At the end of this year, the sticky short-term industry held approximately 220,000 tons of capacity expansion plans, compared with 730,000 tons in 2018. The subsequent battle between supply and demand will become even more intense, and bidding transactions are inevitable. At the same time, survival of the fittest will drive the industry forward.
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