According to CCTV News, on the morning of the 17th local time, oil tanker explosions and airport fires occurred consecutively in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, resulting in 3 deaths and 6 injuries. The Houthi armed forces later claimed responsibility for the incident.
The Yemeni Houthi armed forces stated in a statement that they used five ballistic missiles and several drones to attack Abu Dhabi and Dubai airports, oil refineries and other important targets in the United Arab Emirates that day.
According to news released by the multinational coalition on the 17th, the coalition launched more than 30 consecutive air strikes in many places in Yemen in the past 24 hours, including the capital Sanaa, destroying many Houthi armed strongholds used to launch missiles and drones. .
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said in a phone call with UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdullah Abdullah on the evening of the 17th local time that he strongly condemned the drone attack carried out by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen against the UAE. , emphasizing that the security of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is an “indivisible” whole.
According to news released by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Faisal bin Farhan also expressed condolences to the victims of the attack during the phone call, wished all the injured a speedy recovery, and reiterated that Saudi Arabia will continue to maintain security and stability in the UAE. Provide “full support” when faced with threats.
Domestic refined oil prices rise for the first time in the year, with a tank of oil costing 13.5 yuan more
Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have risen by more than 11%! Domestic refined oil prices “rose for the first time” at the beginning of the year, which is also expected!
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 17. The specific details of this oil price adjustment are as follows: Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 345 yuan and 330 yuan per ton respectively.
On a national average: No. 92 gasoline will increase by 0.27 yuan per liter; No. 95 gasoline will increase by 0.29 yuan per liter; No. 0 diesel will increase by 0.28 yuan per liter. Based on the estimated capacity of a typical household car fuel tank of 50L, it will cost an extra 13.5 yuan to fill up a tank of No. 92 gasoline.
According to monitoring by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, international oil prices have risen sharply during this round of refined oil price adjustment cycles (December 31, 2021 – January 14, 2022). On average, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices increased by 7.57% compared with the previous price adjustment cycle. Affected by this, domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel have subsequently increased.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that the center of gravity of oil prices will shift slightly upward amid oscillations in the short term. On the one hand, global crude oil inventories are at low levels, “OPEC+” has limited efforts to increase production, and multiple sudden supply interruptions at the beginning of the year have a greater impact on the tight balance between supply and demand in the oil market. Oil prices will still be supported in the short term. On the other hand, the year-on-year CPI increase in the United States in December last year hit a 40-year high, and expectations for tightening monetary policy are growing, which will curb the upside of oil prices.
In accordance with the “ten working days” principle, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 29, 2022. Some market participants believe that the next round of refined oil price increases is more likely to occur.
Hedge funds are betting wildly on rising crude oil futures prices, and the logic turns out to be…
According to foreign media reports, since last Wednesday, many hedge funds have returned to the crude oil futures market to buy and arbitrage. A fund manager bluntly said: “The effect of the United States and many countries releasing crude oil reserves to intervene in oil prices has dissipated, and the supply and demand relationship in the global crude oil market is returning to tension. Among them, the most obvious sign is that global crude oil inventories continue to decline, indicating that major producers Oil countries are struggling to provide sufficient supply amid rising demand for crude oil.”
JPMorgan Chase previously released a latest research report stating that it is expected that OPEC+’s idle production capacity will decrease this year, thereby pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. Therefore, JPMorgan Chase predicts that oil prices will rise to US$125/barrel this year and US$150/barrel in 2023 as the market increasingly recognizes the lack of investment in global crude oil supply.
JPMorgan Chase also pointed out that the current crude oil market is in a critical period: under the combined effects of insufficient investment by OPEC+ oil-producing countries, rising oil demand after the epidemic, and the faltering expansion of non-OPEC oil-producing countries, a potential energy crisis may still arise.
Many Wall Street hedge fund managers said that the reason why they are currently buying crude oil futures is not to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates ahead of schedule to make profits, but to be optimistic that the tight supply and demand situation of global commodities will continue in 2022: The reason why current crude oil prices are easy to rise It is difficult to fall, largely because global capital has seriously underinvested in crude oil extraction in the past few years, causing the current supply of crude oil to far fail to keep up with demand growth.
Regarding the operational logic of Wall Street hedge funds, Li Yunxu, a senior analyst at SDIC Esxin Futures, said that it is open to discussion: “Oil prices have now returned to the level before the world’s first discovery of the Omicron variant. Compared with the fundamentals at the time, it was not too substantial. The positive new drivers are mainly reflected in the tense geopolitical atmosphere such as the US-Russia game and the situation in Kazakhstan, as well as the recent optimistic atmosphere of resonant rise in industrial products, which is beneficial to oil prices. Regarding low inventory, lack of capital expenditure, and remaining production capacity Insufficiency and other logics are already clichés, and it is slightly far-fetched to explain this round of oil price rise. We are more inclined to believe that oil prices are returning to the logic of long-term fundamentals after Omicron’s pessimistic expectations were falsified, but the price…�After the restorative rise is completed, a clearer driver may be needed to effectively break through the previous high. ”
Chen Xinnian, a crude oil researcher at CITIC Futures, is not surprised that hedge funds are bullish on oil prices: “First, as of January 7, EIA and API commercial crude oil inventories have been lower than the lower limit for the same period in the six years before the epidemic, and have been destocked for nine consecutive weeks. We At the end of last year, it was proposed that the low inventory background determines the strong support below the oil price. At this stage, the destocking of low inventory will stimulate the rise of oil prices to a higher extent than the same degree of destocking under normal inventory levels. Second, last week, the EIA announced In the latest monthly report, we focused on the EIA’s adjustments to three indicator forecasts. First, it revised upward this year’s global oil demand growth by 70,000 barrels/day to 3.62 million barrels/day. Second, it revised downward this year’s U.S. oil production growth by 30,000 barrels/day. barrels/day to 640,000 barrels/day. Third, although the EIA revised the full-year oil inventory level to 60,000 barrels/day, the change in global oil inventories in the first quarter was adjusted from the previous level of 290,000 barrels/day to a destocking of 2 Thousand barrels per day, this move will adjust the supply and demand pattern of the oil market towards a tight balance in the first quarter, which is obviously a benefit to bulls. At the same time, the price difference between near and far months of Brent oil has continued to rise since mid-December last year, which also shows that the supply is higher than before. Tighter demand is expected.”
Brent Oil Heads to 8-Year High! The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in March, can oil prices continue to rise?
In terms of international oil prices, as of last Friday, U.S. WTI February crude oil futures closed up 2.07%, refreshing the closing high of the front-month contract since November 9 last year set on Wednesday; Brent March crude oil futures closed up 1.88% , the main contract closed above $86/barrel for the first time since October 26 last year. Last week, U.S. oil rose by 6.23% and Brent oil rose by 5.27%, both rising for four consecutive weeks.
Yesterday, Brent crude oil hit $86.71/barrel, the highest intraday level since 2014. U.S. oil WTI February futures rose above $84/barrel, hitting a two-month high since November 10 last year. .
Can crude oil continue its rise before the Spring Festival?
Li Yunxu believes that the trading logic of the crude oil market may return to the fundamental pattern of low inventory and still room for demand recovery. Against this background, the recent geopolitical atmosphere such as the US-Russia game and the situation in Kazakhstan has been relatively tense, and industrial products have risen in resonance. Bringing emotional support, oil prices are more likely to run at high levels. In addition, North America is experiencing severe cold weather, and major consuming countries may still stabilize oil prices through measures such as dumping reserves in the near future. In addition, the eighth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue may make progress before and after the Spring Festival. The risk of oil prices fluctuating significantly due to the recent events is still high. Has strong uncertainty.
The recently released Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that various industries in the United States are under pressure from rising wholesale and raw material price costs. Many industries have been forced to raise prices, and the consumer price index in various jurisdictions has grown strongly. Faced with record-high inflation rates, Federal Reserve officials have successively stated that reducing inflation will be their top priority and hinted that they will raise interest rates as early as March.
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as scheduled in March, can it curb the rise in oil prices?
Chen Xinnian said that the impact of fundamental supply and demand on oil prices will be stronger than the monetary impact on oil prices caused by the expected strong oscillation of the US dollar index throughout the year. The impact of the macro factor of tightening liquidity on oil prices is likely to be short-term. Whether it can bring significant downward risks to oil prices needs to be assessed through the obvious negative impact on global economic growth that is transmitted to the demand side of the oil market. Therefore, we need to continue to pay attention to demand indicators during the year.
“It is not difficult to find from the oil market supply and demand forecasts of the three major energy agencies that the oil market is facing consensus this year. From a quarterly perspective, the certainty of the increase in the first quarter is due to tight fundamentals, and the EIA Monthly report data tell us that storage will be accumulated quarter by quarter starting from the second quarter, but there are still two important upward risks under this framework: First, the current changes in supply and demand occur against the background that OECD commercial oil storage is at a seven-year low, and EIA commercial oil storage is at a seven-year low. Crude oil inventories are lower than the same period in the past six years, so this is one of the reasons why the downside space for oil prices in 2022 is relatively limited. The destocking that occurs against the background of low inventories will definitely stimulate the rise of oil prices more powerfully than the same amount under normal inventory levels. Destocking; second, the market believes that OPEC+’s remaining production capacity is not enough to achieve the production increase target in the production reduction agreement. Such doubts will wait for time to be confirmed or falsified, which may also become the main factor in the upward risk of the oil market throughout this year, especially in the second half of the year.” Chen Xinian explain.
</p
