As usual, most downstream users plan to stock up on the eve of the Spring Festival, and polyester filament manufacturers also mostly offer profit promotions at the end of the year. However, the holiday is about half a month away, and the cost side of the polyester filament market continues to rise, with no sign of promotion at the end of the year. Did the promotional plan fall through?
Since the New Year’s Day holiday, polyester filament has continued to rise with the help of the cost side. As shown in the figure below, taking POY150D/48F as an example, the price has fluctuated and risen after the holiday. As of now, the market has closed at 7,650 yuan/ton, which is 500 yuan/ton higher than before the holiday. , an increase of 7%. At the same time, the prices of dual raw materials have also continued to rise, and polymerization costs have increased by 5.7%. Most specifications of polyester filament yarns are experiencing cash flow losses. Due to cost pressure, polyester filament manufacturers have continued to increase their offers. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, industry players have doubts about whether there will be year-end sales in the market.
Comparison of price trends of mainstream polyester filament models from 2019 to 2022
According to Longzhong’s understanding, logistics basically stopped gradually after the 20th of this month, because some freight drivers are migrant workers. Considering the recurrence of epidemics in many places at the end of the year, they are worried about hindering their return to their hometowns. Therefore, some migrant workers left early after the New Year’s Day. After returning from work, logistics and transportation have been affected after New Year’s Day, and factory shipments have slowed down. Although the inventory days continue to decline, the pressure on storage capacity still exists. Downstream users also plan to park their cars for holidays after the middle of the month, so most businesses believe that the middle of the month is the best time for promotions. However, oil prices have rebounded strongly in recent days, and aggregation costs have also continued to increase. However, leading companies have achieved significant destocking effects. With the support of many positive factors, the market has yet to see signs of promotions. A small number of downstream users are also waiting for year-end promotions and focus on bargain hunting. The market has fallen into a trap. Stiff atmosphere.
Comparison of average weekly operating rates of polyester filament from 2019 to 2022
In addition, it is worth noting that from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, some preliminary inspection and shutdown devices have been restarted one after another. Although some companies have reduced or stopped operations during the month, overall, the current polyester filament production starts are on the rise. During the traditional low season of demand , why did polyester filament production increase against the trend? As the supply increases, the year-end inventory of polyester filament will gradually accumulate, which seems to further confirm the rumors of promotion.
On the whole, due to the game between cost and supply and demand, the polyester filament market is running stagnantly. Most downstream users at the trader level believe that there are still expectations for promotions in the market in the near future. Considering the cost pressure, the discount range is expected to be limited, while polyester filament manufacturers believe that Promotions are not expected to be large and will depend on the price trend of raw materials.
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