On November 20, international oil prices plummeted again. As of the close of trading on November 20, local time, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell to an intraday low of $52.77/barrel and closed at $53.43/barrel, down 5.9% and hitting a new low in the past year. Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell to a low of $61.98/barrel and closed at $62.27/barrel, down 6.7% and hitting a nine-month low.
The most powerful in 2018 Who is the crude oil trader? Mr. Trump
To put it simply, the plunge in oil prices is mainly due to stuck Shuji case. As the largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia’s attitude can be said to play a decisive role in international oil prices. As early as early November, when oil prices were negative for 12 consecutive days, Saudi Arabia had the idea of reducing production to protect prices. However, due to pressure from the United States, Saudi Arabia’s production reduction plan was shelved.
Recently, there have been new developments in the Khashoggi case, and Saudi Arabia has once again stood out from the international public opinion On the cusp of the crisis, at this moment, Saudi Arabia can only make concessions on international oil prices. Coupled with the negative news that the United States has released record-high crude oil reserves, it is difficult for international oil prices to rebound in a short period of time. The crude oil futures market lacks confidence, and the plunge is understandable.
So there is also a joke in the market, who is the most powerful crude oil trader in 2018? It’s Mr. Trump! No one can make oil prices fall by 6% with just one tweet.
As a basic raw material, every significant fluctuation in international oil prices will have a significant impact on the entire polyester industry chain.
PTA suffered a bolt from the blue, plummeting 4% in a single day
Before the new round of plummeting oil prices on November 20, the price of PTA had actually stabilized, and the main force of PTA futures was basically maintained. Around 6500 points, the range of fluctuations is limited. However, the sharp drop in international oil prices gave the PTA market a bolt from the blue.
Affected by the plunge in oil prices, PTA futures fell sharply on November 21. As of the close, the closing price of the main 1901 contract of PTA futures was 6252 points, down 256 points or 3.93% from the previous trading day.
Due to the production reduction of polyester factories, the sales situation of PTA is not ideal. Due to the impact of the sharp drop in oil prices, the future of PTA will be bullish.
Polyester filament has been hit again, and a new round of price decline has begun
In the past month or so, polyester filament has actually been having a tough time – prices have dropped again and again, production and sales have hovered around 50-70%, but inventory has been rising. Under such circumstances, the polyester factory decided to reduce production at the polyester industry meeting on November 10, with the production reduction reaching 2,500 tons/day. Unfortunately, the oil price plummeted in the first week of the production reduction. The benefits of the production reduction were quickly digested, and eventually the price of polyester filament stabilized.
On November 20, oil prices plummeted again. Affected by this, polyester filament began to A new round of price cuts. On November 21, the polyester POY of a factory in Tongxiang fell by 100-150 yuan/ton, the FDY of a factory in Wujiang fell by 100-150 yuan/ton, and the POY of a factory in Zhejiang fell by 100-200 yuan/ton.
In addition to price cuts, the production and sales of polyester are not optimistic either. Starting this week, the production and sales of polyester factories have once again dropped below 100. Affected by the mentality of production and sales and downstream buyers to buy up rather than buy down, coupled with the decline in PTA, the profit margin of polyester factories has increased, so polyester factories are willing to raise prices. It is not strong, so today should be just the beginning of the decline of polyester filament. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will continue to fall in the short term.
The weaving market has improved slightly, and a wait-and-see attitude may become the mainstream
It can be said that the downstream weaving market has suffered a lot from raw materials this year. Starting from July, polyester raw materials have skyrocketed and then plummeted, with the range as high as two to three thousand yuan. The small body cannot withstand such a torment, and the good “gold nine and silver ten” are also lost in this way.
According to the author’s visit, because the prices of raw materials have begun to return to normal, the current price of conventional products on the market Sales were slightly better than in September and October. But on the other hand, due to the poor market conditions in September and October, weaving factories generally have someInventory, in the case of raw material decline, it is likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the purchase of raw materials. Wait until the raw materials hit the bottom before making bulk purchases.
However, in general, the drop in crude oil prices is good news for the weaving market.
Postscript
The author has written an article before, in which he speculated on three reasons that may have an impact on the polyester market in the future. They are the Saudi Arabian factors that have caused the oil price to plummet, the low production and sales of polyester yarns that have led to polyester factories increasing their production cuts, and the introduction of PTA futures overseas. Traders and the listing of ethylene glycol futures have led to the influx of external funds, raising raw material prices at the financial level. Now that the crude oil speculation has been realized, will the remaining two become reality?
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