As the saying goes, jump high and fall painfully!
In just five trading days at the beginning of July,
PTA has experienced ups and downs like a “roller coaster”!
The phased easing of the Sino-US trade situation has boosted market confidence. After hearing the news, PTA futures surged strongly on July 1, closing at the daily limit for two consecutive trading days, which is quite arrogant!
On the evening of the 2nd, as rumors of a whistleblower letter spread, market panic spread rapidly, and PTA futures also plummeted; in the afternoon of the 4th, it was regulated Due to the influence of the research rumors, PTA directly dropped to the limit and closed, and then the decline spread to the 5th, which was quite bleak.
Rapidly rising or falling rapidly,
In fact, it is not conducive to the development of the market!
However, whether it boosts confidence or panic, it is only a short-term good or bad for the market. In the final analysis, it is still impossible to operate without fundamentals!
1. PTA alone is profitable in the polyester industry chain, and dissatisfaction among upstream and downstream users may increase!
In this wave of ups and downs in the market, what must be mentioned must be the cash flow situation of PTA, which once again monopolizes the profits of the polyester industry chain. , a new high for the year, and an absolute profit high in recent years. PTA is worthy of being the “king” in the polyester industry chain. As of July 4, its cash flow has once again surged to an absolute high of nearly 1,766 yuan/ton!
PTA’s high profits have almost swallowed up the profit margins of all products upstream and downstream of the polyester industry chain, which may also increase dissatisfaction in the upstream and downstream markets. Coupled with equipment maintenance and tight supply, it has been a hot topic of speculation in the PTA market in recent months. However, due to the temptation of high profits, some equipment maintenance may be postponed, and the pressure to put new equipment into production in the second half of the year is gradually approaching. In any case, it has suppressed the further rise of PTA market to a certain extent.
2. The mainstream production and sales of polyester have dropped significantly to 10-20%, and subsequent production reduction operations have increased!
The high level of the PTA market in the early stage was largely due to the cooperation of the downstream polyester market. The mainstream production and sales of polyester exceeded 100 from time to time. It is conducive to the strong rise of PTA. However, in recent days, with the spread of market panic, downstream weaving companies have stopped replenishing goods, and traders have also started cautiously. The mainstream production and sales of the polyester market have plummeted, with production and sales basically maintaining only 10% to 20% for three consecutive trading days. .
In fact, since this year, we know that the operating rate of the polyester market has been relatively stable, and there has been no large-scale production shutdown for maintenance, which has brought great benefits to the PTA market from the demand side. However, with the sharp decline in polyester production and sales in recent days and the expectation that inventory pressure will rise, polyester manufacturers seem to be gradually entering the maintenance season. It is understood that polyester manufacturers in the market have recently begun to suspend production for maintenance, and subsequent production reduction operations in the polyester market may further increase.
3. The inventory of gray fabrics is still at a high level during the year, and weaving manufacturers may have “summer vacation” arrangements!
High inventory of gray fabrics has been a headache for the weaving market this year. The main reason is that in recent years, more and more external factories have been set up, and the number of machines has increased. It has expanded twice, and its products are mainly conventional varieties such as polyester taffeta, pongee, Oxford cloth, chiffon and other mid-to-low-end goods, resulting in a state of excess production capacity in the market. Although the inventories of weaving manufacturers have declined slightly due to the boost from the previous increase in raw materials, the decline is actually not significant and is still at a relatively high level during the year. According to data from sample companies monitored by China Silk Capital Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in the market is about 40 days.
It is understood that after several rounds of replenishment of raw materials, the current raw material inventory of most weaving manufacturers has increased from the previous 7-10 days to 15-20 days. In some cases, the inventory is more than 1 month. The number is the largest in the past quarter. On the other hand, under the pressure of high inventory and increased production capacity, some weaving manufacturers have plans to reduce or suspend production. It is reported that some weaving manufacturers in the market have “summer” holiday arrangements and plans from mid-July to mid-August.
Every gain must have a loss, and every bitterness must have sweetness. Whether it rises or falls, it is a test that tests the patience of textile people; a test and an understanding are An experience! </p
