According to news on July 9, the domestic futures market closed down for many varieties, chemicals fell sharply across the board, ethylene glycol fell to the limit in late trading, and cotton sealed the limit! PTA futures also opened lower and moved lower that day.
On July 10, futures such as ethylene glycol and cotton continued to run at low levels, and chemical products such as PTA also suffered setbacks and fell. However, near the end of the trading day, PTA futures experienced a “sudden change in style” and were caught off guard by a strong rise. The main PTA 1909 contract closed at 6,120 yuan/ton that day. Compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day, it increased significantly by 188 yuan/ton, with an increase of 188 yuan/ton. 3.17%.
This caused an uproar in the polyester market, and the circle of friends of textile people “exploded”!
Just like the joke of early market people, PTA is like a walking hormone that surges at the slightest disagreement. On the 11th, PTA futures continued to rise, with the main 1909 contract rising sharply again at the end of the day, closing at 6,166 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 204 yuan/ton, or 3.42%.
Amid the ups and downs of the upstream raw material PTA, the polyester filament market is also experiencing ups and downs. In the first five months, although the polyester filament market has struggled to improve, its overall performance has been relatively stable. However, in the past month or so, the quotations of polyester manufacturers have been quite busy rising and falling; in the past few trading days, the polyester products were still falling at an average daily price of 50-200 yuan/ton to varying degrees. Supported by the strong rise of PTA on the 10th, the quotations of mainstream polyester manufacturers increased on the 11th.
For futures, there must be speculation factors. However, excluding the hype elements, from a fundamental perspective, whether it is supply changes or demand fluctuations, there is a lack of motivation to support the continued rebound of the market for polyester raw materials such as PTA.
1. It will be a good year for the PTA device to be put into operation, but the polyester market will reduce production and increase!
As the market said, this year is a small year for the commissioning of PTA equipment. In the first half of the year, only Sichuan was able to complete the new investment of 1 million tons of equipment. However, the equipment was put into operation in early June. It was shut down for some reason and has not been restarted yet. Therefore, although it was put into production at the end of May, it has not brought a significant increase in market supply. It is understood that the production capacity involved in the PTA maintenance in June is 9.9 million tons, of which the load reduction will affect the production capacity of 2.275 million tons. In the later period, 6.7 million tons of equipment are planned for maintenance. The tight supply of PTA can be said to be the strongest factor boosting price increases in the PTA market this year!
The supply and demand of PTA is tight, which naturally includes the demand side. Since the beginning of this year, the operating load of the polyester market has remained at a high level, reaching more than 90.0%. However, it is worth noting that with the fluctuation of terminal demand in the recent stage, polyester manufacturers have successively entered a state of maintenance and reduced production, and some polyester factories still have production reduction plans in the future. If all are implemented, the operating load of the polyester market is expected to be or will be reduced to below 90%.
Specifically, Dawo began to reduce production by 30% today, involving 450 tons/day; Kangxin has reduced production by 20%, involving 260 tons/day; Tiansheng is reducing production On the basis of 1,200 tons/day, production will continue to be reduced by 300 tons/day, totaling 1,500 tons/day; Wujiang Xinmin will reduce production by 100 tons/day, mainly semi-gloss FDY and chip products. In terms of new devices, it is reported that the start-up time of Xinfengming (300,000 tons) and Tongkun Hengyou 600,000 tons devices has been delayed to August.
2The performance of the weaving market is not satisfactory, and the weakening demand is still difficult to cover up!
What I have to mention here is the downstream weaving market, which directly affects polyester manufacturers and also restrains the PTA market. In the textile industry chain, although the mentality of the upstream has recovered, the performance of the downstream weaving market is not satisfactory.
In the previous stage, PTA surged strongly and polyester filament prices climbed steadily, which indeed inspired the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream weaving manufacturers from time to time. However, after many experiences, downstream weaving manufacturers also Becoming increasingly cautious. On the one hand, weaving manufacturers usually have about 20-30 days of stocking of raw materials after multiple purchases in the early stage. Nowadays, there is not much rigid demand for raw materials. In addition, they are worried about the abnormal performance of PTA and polyester filament. After a big rise, they are worried about a big fall. In the past, there was a mentality of buying up and not buying down. But now it seems that there is a move of buying down and not buying up. I am afraid that it will rise again. Lower purchases of raw materials compress profits.
For the weaving market, there is still a big problem with the high level of gray fabric inventory. Although as long as it is within the scope of the enterprise, it can beWeaving manufacturers will still keep operating as long as profits are guaranteed. However, with the lack of orders in the end market, some weaving manufacturers have to cut prices or use small profits to attract orders. Nowadays, the profit per meter of cloth on the market is only around 0.1-0.3 yuan. Some weaving manufacturers have appeared “instead of working hard every day” Weaving manufacturers are still operating despite struggling, so it is better to reduce the operating rate.” The operating rate of weaving manufacturers may decline to varying degrees in July and August.
If raw materials continue to rise, but end-order demand shrinks, for weaving, it will be a drain on the bottom of the pot, which will actually dampen the enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers for production. In any case, whether it is the PTA market or the polyester filament market, it cannot be divorced from reality after all. The weakening of demand will eventually be difficult to be covered up by other factors. </p
