Introduction: Since mid-June, affected by falling oil prices and declining commodity market sentiment, PTA market prices have plummeted. On the 27th, the main PTA contract 2209 hit the lowest level of 6318 yuan. On the 28th, driven by the strengthening of the cost side, PTA experienced a restorative rebound. The main contract 2209 opened at 6590 yuan, reached a maximum of 6744 yuan, and closed at 6718 yuan, which was 3.45 higher than the previous day’s settlement. %.
The main logic of current changes in the PTA market still lies in the cost side, followed by the impact of its own supply and demand fundamentals.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and adjustments to OPEC’s production reduction plan caused oil prices to fall sharply, and the collapse of the cost side caused PTA prices to begin to fall in mid-June. However, the macro economy has weakened and the overall commodity market atmosphere has declined. Affected by this, the PTA futures market continues to weaken. Although the demand for oil adjustment supports the PX market, as domestic and foreign PX installations have gradually resumed, the supply recovery has caused PX prices to fall. Therefore, the negative effects on multiple costs have caused the price of PTA to plummet. Recently, the crude oil market has digested the crisis of economic recession. The escalation of geopolitical risks has widened the supply gap, causing oil prices to rise. Supported by this, PTA prices have experienced a restorative rise.
The PTA operating rate has rebounded significantly recently. Among them, the Yisheng Chemical and New Materials, Sanfangxiang, Yadong Petrochemical and other devices have returned to normal, the Fuhaichuang device has increased its load, and the Sichuan Energy Investment device has shut down on the 28th. As of now, 80.85% of PTA operations have been started, which is the highest level since the second quarter. As Hengli Petrochemical’s two units and the Fuhai Chuang unit are scheduled to be overhauled in July, the supply has been reduced again. Affected by this, the PTA market is still reluctant to sell. However, some traders still have demand for spot purchases in July, causing the futures-to-spot basis to continue to strengthen. However, downstream rigid demand is stable. In the traditional off-season, terminal orders are scarce, resulting in high polyester inventory and difficulty in improving the polyester operating rate. In the future, when the supply of PTA decreases, it will still play a supporting role in the price of PTA.
Overall, as the OPEC+ meeting approaches, the plan to accelerate production may ultimately not be realized due to production capacity constraints. At the same time, the summer travel peak in the United States will boost fuel demand and will also lead to an expected recovery in crude oil demand. High oil prices play a leading role in PTA market prices. At the same time, if the supply of PTA decreases in the future, prices will also be supported. In the short term, the PTA market may maintain a restorative rebound. Focus on the PPEC+ conference and terminal orders.
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