The overall situation of the textile industry this year is: “prosperity” is short-lived, while “weakness” is relatively long-term. The emergence of this state is first caused by problems on the downstream demand side. The loss of customers and the year-on-year decline in orders are the consensus of all textile people; but at this time, the situation on the supply side is no less than that on the demand side, with new production capacity and operating rates increasing. Come out from time to time to stir up the market.
The decline in raw materials was strong, but the increase was insufficient
On November 1, the price of crude oil in New York rose by nearly 4%, and the following two days also mainly increased, while PTA Futures prices are only fluctuating and adjusting, and have not bottomed out. Even when crude oil prices ended their rise and began to fluctuate, PTA prices fell for four consecutive days. Of course, within a few days, PTA futures prices fell from above 4,800 points to below 4,700 points. The main reason was the substantial investment in PTA production capacity. Previously, the first phase of Xinfengming PTA equipment was put into operation, and later several maintenance equipment in Southwest China and East China were put into operation again, involving a production capacity of more than 4 million tons. However, the price of PTA has fallen strongly, but the rising power is obviously insufficient.
On November 13, three PTA units in East China were shut down for maintenance within one day, involving a production capacity of 3.5 million tons. Under such good news, the price of PTA was “steady as a mountain”, and the futures price only rose 0.6% on November 14. Standing above 4700 points, the PTA futures price fell below 4700 points again on November 15th. The situation on the demand side is: the growth rate of terminal clothing sales has slowed down, and the textile market’s loom start-up rate has begun to decline as the end of the year approaches. The prices of upstream polyester products are showing a downward trend. Although there are frequent price reduction promotions, production and sales are still not optimistic. And since October, the polyester operating rate has dropped for five consecutive weeks and currently remains at around 88%. PTA prices have become “immune” to the good news on the supply side. All rising opportunities are not grasped, and every bad market situation is exploited “more than worse.” In the final analysis, the upstream supply side has overcapacity and its influence is weakening; the demand side is shrinking, and a “supply exceeds demand” situation has formed, and the demand side’s influence has far exceeded that of the supply side.
The market situation of printing and dyeing factories has reversed, and weaving factories have a way of making a living on their own
At present, the entire textile market is once again enveloped in an off-season atmosphere, especially The printing and dyeing factories whose warehouses were overcrowded by market-produced fabrics a while ago are now in a very different situation. The staff of a professional four-sided elastic printing and dyeing factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang gave us feedback that the factory was selling market goods a while ago, especially T400, which was in surprisingly large quantities. The gray fabrics that came into the warehouse every day were T400 or T400, but recently the market goods have disappeared. , the dyeing factory immediately became much quieter. Now many vacant barrel trucks in the factory have been erected to avoid dust accumulation and staining. Normally, this would only happen when preparing for the New Year, but the market is so bad this year. It is estimated that it will be in the same state a year ago, and the possibility of getting better again is gone. Not big.
Weaving Market The hard days of printing and dyeing came earlier and lasted longer than those of printing and dyeing. It was also relatively early for them to find ways to break the situation and save themselves. The person in charge of a weaving factory in Wujiang area with more than 300 looms told us that the sales of polyester taffeta, pongee, imitation silk, etc. that they often made in previous years are very pessimistic this year. When they realized that re-weaving on the machine would only occupy funds and accumulate inventory, they made decisive adjustments and began to fully switch to the popular “recycled fabrics” that are currently hot-selling and popular. Later, they also applied for a GRS certificate. The current production and sales situation in the factory has greatly improved, and orders for related products have been received after the year.
But transformation is always accompanied by “labor pains”. A weaving factory in Nantong has taken the same path and began to reduce the production of traditional fabrics and increase investment in recycled fabrics. However, all kinds of knowledge related to recycled fabrics need to be learned from scratch, and there are only one or two relevant customers. They still have a long way to go before they can achieve success in a completely new field.
Trade side Harvesting profits in a bleak situation
The various difficulties in upstream raw materials, weaving, printing and dyeing have given the downstream textile trade a little breathing space. This year’s nylon spinning market is not comparable to previous years. However, a fabric trader in Kunshan recently easily received an order for more than 500,000 meters of nylon spinning. According to the person in charge of the company, China’s winter this year is basically going to be mild. There is no market for down jackets, and nylon fabrics are having a hard time. However, the orders they received were for export, so the impact was not significant. And because their order volume is okay, they have a big say in the price of gray fabrics, and the dyeing factories are also actively fighting for them, and their service attitude is very good. With the combination of weaving and printing and dyeing, his profit per meter of cloth is close to 2 yuan/meter.
A four-sided bomb trader in the Wujiang area has the same situation. They are handling a foreign trade order for four-sided bombs, with the total quantity exceeding 600,000 meters. Due to the large number of orders and the fact that many four-sided bomb dyeing factories now have very few orders, they are subject to competition from several dyeing factories. The biggest benefit for them is that the dyeing fee has dropped significantly. The dyeing fee of the dyeing factory they are currently working in has dropped by 0.7 yuan/meter compared with the original dyeing factory. Such a large drop is amazing, and it also shows that the dyeing cost has dropped significantly. The factory’s dilemma. As long as textile traders have orders in hand at this time, there is basically room for negotiation on the price of gray fabrics and dyeing fees. They are also a relatively relaxed group in the entire textile industry chain.
During this period of time ago, all textile people were thinking about one question: is it Carrying inventory for the New Year, or stopping production to prepare for the New Year? For production enterprises, inventory is the biggest problem at the moment. After all, fabrics cannot be used as wages or rent; while processing enterprises faced two months before the beginning of the year. They continued to produce but had no orders, and stopped production for two months. Labor, rent, and depreciation are all gone. </p
