Recently, according to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on November 14, 2019, Washington time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final results of the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation into China’s polyester processed yarn (Polyester Textured Yarn). According to statistics, during the investigation period, Chinese companies exported US$35 million of products involved in the case to the United States. According to the U.S. investigation procedures, the U.S. International Trade Commission will make a final damage ruling on this case on December 30.
In recent years, the export momentum of China’s polyester filament industry has been relatively strong. According to statistics from China Customs, my country imported 73,700 tons of polyester filament from January to August 2019, exported 1.8178 million tons, and the net export volume was 1.7441 million tons. The import and export situation of the polyester filament industry from January to August 2019 remained good, and the cumulative net export volume increased significantly.
Although the United States announced an anti-dumping investigation into China’s polyester processed yarn The final ruling did not have a major negative impact on the polyester filament market; but it has to be said that for the recent polyester filament market, it means “making matters worse”!
Since the beginning of this year, polyester manufacturers have been unable to effectively increase their quotations, which has become the most important “pain point”. Throughout the past two years, the price focus of polyester filament products has obviously fallen to the lows of the year and recent years. The year-on-year decline of mainstream products is generally close to 2000-3000 yuan/ton, and the decline is also close to 20%-30%. level.
Specifically, the quotation focus of FDY150D mainstream manufacturers dropped to 7,000 Yuan/ton, compared with the price in the same period last year, it dropped sharply by nearly 2,300 yuan/ton, or 24.73%; compared with the price in the same period in 2017, it also dropped sharply by nearly 2,450 yuan/ton, and the decline increased to Around 26%. As for POY, the mainstream quotation of 150D is around 6,850 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 2,025 yuan/ton, or 22.82%; also compared with the same period in 2017, it also dropped significantly by nearly 24.56%.
Of course, DTY cannot escape the fate of low prices, among which 150D It has already weakly fallen below the 10,000 yuan mark. The current price has dropped to 8,550 yuan/ton, and the year-on-year decline has expanded to 20.09%. Compared with the price two years ago, it has also dropped significantly by nearly 19.72%.
Looking back on last year, It is worth noting that in the first half of November last year, the polyester filament market was also facing a downward trend. However, towards the second half of the month, it suddenly ushered in a wave of positive trends. Can the polyester filament market replicate last year’s market this year?
In fact, during this period, the polyester filament market It seems that there are gradually signs of bottoming out, and polyester manufacturers’ intention to raise prices has obviously increased. Just last Friday, boosted by the expected increase in news, the intention to stock up in the downstream market increased significantly, and the mainstream production and sales of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased strongly; according to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories rose sharply to 120%-130 on the 15th. %, the production and sales of some relatively high manufacturers have climbed to 200% or even 300% levels.
But everything seems to be “big thunder and light rain”, It is said that the mainstream polyester manufacturers are generally rising in prices, but they have not formed a situation of rising prices across the board. It is understood that most mainstream polyester manufacturers have successively raised their quotations slightly, but the actual increase is not obvious. The increase is only around 50-100 yuan/ton, and the sustainability does not seem to be strong.
In the final analysis, it is the supply and demand side that determines the final direction of the market. !
From the perspective of the polyester supply side, since this year, the operating load of the polyester market has mostly remained stable; as of now, the average polyester load is expected to be around 88.2%. It is within normal levels for the year.
However, from the demand side, since this year, in the textile environment where the peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is very weak, the enthusiasm of the downstream market for raw material procurement has obviously weakened. , the demand side’s motivation is slightly insufficient.
According to the survey of China Silk City Network, there are a small number of downstream…Manufacturers and texturing manufacturers have been purchasing and stocking up one after another during the recent period, when the prices of raw materials are generally low and there are discounts on transactions. Taking advantage of the low prices, they have greatly increased the stocking of raw materials. Some have exceeded A month of stocking up.
However, for most downstream manufacturers, polyester filament is mostly purchased on demand and they are mainly cautious to wait and see. On the one hand, they are afraid of the risk of further decline in raw materials, and on the other hand, they are afraid of the risk of further decline in raw materials. On the other hand, when the market demand is weak, there is a fear of backlog of funds and inventory. Therefore, most manufacturers maintain a stocking capacity of basic raw materials at about 7-15 days. They have always been cautious about purchasing raw materials and do not dare to stock up in batches or make purchases easily.
Today’s tepid textile market is not only Polyester manufacturers are very unsure, and downstream weaving manufacturers are also at a loss. It is not easy for the polyester filament market to reach the “node” of last year! </p
