The biggest thing recently is the positive signal released by China-US trade relations: last Friday, the 13th, through the joint efforts of the economic and trade teams of China and the United States, the two sides reached an agreement on the Sino-US trade relationship on the basis of the principles of equality and mutual respect. The text of the first-phase economic and trade agreement was agreed upon.
At the same time, the United States announced that it would increase the amount of 250 billion yuan in Chinese goods originally scheduled for December 15. Tariffs to 30%, and new tariffs will be imposed on 180 billion goods” was changed to “No additional tariffs on 180 billion goods, 25% tariffs on 250 billion goods will be maintained, and the tariff rate on 120 billion goods will be reduced from 15% to 7.5%.”
After a week, people in the textile industry are not discussing this matter very much. After research, everyone’s opinions to the editor are:
1. This matter must be regarded as the biggest benefit in the near future. After all, it is better to have a successful negotiation than to fail. At least it shows that Foreign trade may not develop in a worse direction next year, which will also give textile bosses engaged in foreign trade a sip of “suppressive soup”.
2. Regarding the tax cuts announced by the United States, there are indeed no surprises, and the degree of boost to the textile industry is also limited. In addition, Trump has frequently “changed his face”, and it is still unknown how much of the benefits can be realized.
Since 2019, affected by the uncertainty of Sino-US trade relations, the textile industry chain production Slowing down, industry profits have declined. Many textile foreign trade bosses said that at the beginning of the trade war, orders from American customers were more affected, and the other parties were more cautious in placing orders. However, after 22 months, everyone now basically accepts this status quo and is optimistic about the situation. The digestion and reaction to the news was also relatively calm. “U.S. customers have canceled several orders this year, and some orders have already been knitted on the machine. The temporary cancellation has caused a certain amount of losses, so I don’t dare to stock up more at the end of this year, for fear that the policy will be reversed next year. Transfer.” said a foreign trade boss in Wujiang area. Mr. Shen of another company with nearly 200 water-jet looms also said: “In the first half of the year, business was generally affected by the Sino-US trade friction, but it improved in the second half of the year. Now the first-phase agreement between China and the United States is indeed beneficial to the foreign trade market, but there is no I said that there are orders from the United States now. It will not change the stocking plan before the Spring Festival.”
It can be seen that for this time The release of good news about Sino-US trade is more positive than substantial boost. Many textile bosses still have doubts about the foreign trade situation next year. Looking back at the recent fabric market, the receivables and profits that textile bosses are most concerned about at the end of the year have not improved very well:
1. Gray fabrics fell by 20% year-on-year, and profits shrank significantly
Since this year, the entire textile market has been shrouded in a pattern of “overcapacity”, which has led to the price of most conventional chemical fiber fabrics. Even the prices of T400 and T800, which were relatively easy to sell in the early stage, have fallen sharply recently. A recent visit to some nylon spinning, imitation silk and imitation memory companies found that the prices of almost all varieties have dropped to varying degrees: for example, 75D weft twist imitation memory was 2.8 yuan/meter at the beginning of the year, and the current price is 2.3 yuan/meter; 75D24T The price of chiffon dropped from 3.3 yuan/meter in previous years to 2.6 yuan/meter; the price of 380T nylon dropped from 4.5 yuan/meter to 3.3 yuan/meter…
Manager Xu, who owns more than 300 water-jet looms and specializes in pongee, nylon, regenerated nylon and other products, said: “Last year, there was basically no inventory in the factory, but now the inventory is nearly three to four million meters. If we want to stock up, we can only reduce prices, and profits have also shrunk significantly.” Mr. Chen, another imitation memory trader, also said: “Imitation memory this year Compared with last year, the price of gray fabric has dropped by 0.7-0.8 yuan/meter, and the profit is 20% lower.” It is understood that the profit of artificial silk has not been high in recent years, and the profit of special varieties is only 2-3 yuan/meter, and the common varieties are Even 1 yuan/meter cannot be guaranteed.
Although most weaving manufacturers have recently been busy shipping goods and sprinting for year-end performance, on the premise of a slight increase in raw material prices Next, the price of gray fabrics, which had been falling in the early stage, also stopped falling.
2. Domestic trade payment arrears are serious, foreign trade payment collection is normal
It is the last month of the year, and both traders and weaving factory owners are beginning to calculate their capital situation. For them, capital turnover this year is a more difficult year. The market supply and demand are imbalanced and low-price competition is fierce, resulting in arrears. The phenomenon of getting goods is heating up again. The debt period on the market ranges from as little as one month to as long as half a year or more. Therefore, many textile bosses have already started to deal with the issue of receivables.
“We started collecting payments early this year,” Manager Xu said helplessly: “Last year, most of them were cash purchases or reservations. This year, most of them are arrears. The cycle is about 1-3 months.” Mr. Yang, another imitation silk manufacturer with hundreds of looms, said frankly: “This year’s account arrears are worse than in previous years. Recently, I dare not pay for goods because I am afraid that I will not be able to collect them. Customers In the past, one month was owed.��Now the debt is 2 months or more, and we have been collecting payments one after another this year. ”
It is reported that many textile bosses are worried about the issue of payment recovery this year. After all, the “triangular debt” problem in the textile industry has been around for a long time, and this year’s global economic environment is not good, and terminals Customers’ funds on hand are also relatively tight, so payments are delayed more than in previous years. In contrast, the situation of foreign trade arrears will be better than that of domestic trade, and repayments are mostly carried out according to the contract, which is more guaranteed.
Of course, judging from the recent fabric market, the market performance is still “polarized”, and recent orders for imitation silk and imitation memory fabrics are still “remarkable” “Point”, especially the imitation silk series, has become more and more widely used in the market due to its thinness, popularity, diversity and other characteristics. It has gradually transitioned from the “darling” of spring and summer women’s clothing fabrics to “four seasons” products, so at the end of the year Outstanding performance in this wave of market conditions. “Into December, customer orders have been relatively good, and we have already received orders for next year. ” said Mr. Wu, the person in charge of an old imitation silk production company.
In addition to conventional simulated silk Products, the recycled series have also been favored by domestic and foreign merchants this year, and many manufacturers have also taken this opportunity to invest in “recycling”. “The overall textile market this year is not good, the textile threshold is low, there are too many people entering the market, and low-price competition That’s intense. This year, it seems that the sales of regular varieties of imitation silk have not been very good, but those fabrics with special varieties are doing well. Recycled fabrics will be a bright spot next year and may trigger a new wave of market trends. ” said Mr. Shen, a simulated silk manufacturer in Wujiang area.
Now that 2020 is getting closer and closer, the big Most textile companies still lack confidence in the entire trade market next year. Factors such as poor terminal demand, overcapacity, and increased competition are unanimously considered to be the reasons why the market is difficult to improve. Regarding the future, textile bosses still lament: Textile is not easy; And cherish it!
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