On the night of May 18, a big news completely detonated the U.S. stock market. The global market was abuzz. New progress in vaccines brought hope for ending the epidemic. The U.S. stock market closed soaring by more than 900 points, and once rose by nearly 1,000 points during the session. , an increase of more than 4%.
Oil prices also rose sharply driven by the good news. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.39 to close at $31.8 per barrel, an increase of 8.12%, which was the highest closing price of the contract since March 13. London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $2.31 to close at $34.81 a barrel, an increase of 7.11%.
Crude oil is the most basic raw material in the polyester industry chain, and its rise can often drive up the price of polyester raw materials , the increase in polyester production and sales. It stands to reason that after the sharp rise in crude oil on the 18th, PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament should all see sharp rises. However, this time, things seem to be a little different than expected.
In terms of price, despite the sharp rise in crude oil, the internal prices of PTA and ethylene glycol did not fluctuate significantly on the 19th, and only the price of polyester filament increased slightly.
On the 20th, the price of polyester filament began to stabilize, with only a few companies increasing by 50-100 yuan. /Ton.
In terms of production and sales, polyester production and sales have fallen slightly from the highs of the previous two days.
On May 19, the production and sales of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined significantly. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were 60%-80%, and some better factories could reach 200%.
On May 20, the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas improved slightly today. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are 130%-150%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 200%. %.
Crude oil prices have obviously risen sharply, but the increase in polyester raw materials seems to be somewhat weak. The purchasing desire of weaving companies also seems to have decreased. What is going on?
The benefits have been released in advance
Crude Oil News reported in Houston on May 15, 2020 that since the first quarter of this year, as the impact of the epidemic continues to affect the entire industry, the crude oil export volume of the Port of Corpus Christi, the largest crude oil export center in the United States, has dropped by 35%. Volumes are expected to drop further this summer.
Boosted by this good news, crude oil has begun to rise sharply. Before the 18th, the cumulative increase in crude oil in May had exceeded 200%. Driven by the positive rise in crude oil, the polyester market has experienced a round of rise before, and some of the positive benefits have been released in advance.
Foreign trade is unlikely to pick up in the short term
After investigation, it was found that since May, the order situation in the textile market has improved to a certain extent compared with April. However, from the perspective of the order structure, only some domestic trade orders have improved, while foreign trade orders have still not improved. .
Trader Mr. Wang said: “Since May, we have received significantly more orders than before, but they are mainly domestic orders, and there have been basically no foreign orders so far this year. I have received a few. With the attitude of early consumption in European and American countries, even if work and production resume, the demand for foreign clothing will not rise immediately within a month or two. After all, food and daily necessities have to be purchased all the time, but a piece of clothing can be worn for a long time. ”
Therefore, in a short period of time, the demand of the textile industry is still dominated by domestic demand and “walking on one leg”. The fundamentals of oversupply are difficult to change. Under such circumstances, the price of raw materials There is no basis for continued growth.
The textile market enters the off-season
If we follow the rules of previous years, late May is just the end of the peak season in the first half of the year. After entering June, it is usually the stage when textile companies start to accumulate inventory.
Although affected by the epidemic this year, the off-peak season has been greatly affected.However, during the research process, it was found that textile people generally believed that after the second half of the month, the market began to weaken significantly compared with the first half of the month. Past business experience also tells them that the textile market is about to enter the off-season.
With the market under heavy pressure in the first half of the year, when the hard-earned demand is about to fade again, textile companies are unlikely to buy into the continued rise in raw materials, and raw material prices have also It is difficult to keep rising.
Inherent demand has been released, Weaving companies are unable to pay for it
Foreign trade demand has not yet recovered and the overall market supply exceeds demand. Weaving companies are still cautious in their strategies for purchasing raw materials.
On the one hand, weaving companies that have taken aggressive measures to purchase raw materials have purchased more raw materials than originally planned when polyester yarns began to rise on the 15th. With prices fluctuating sharply, it is basically impossible for weaving companies to purchase raw materials for several months at once as they did in the past. Therefore, this part of the demand has been released in advance.
On the other hand, for other companies with more conservative strategies, a few hundred yuan price change of raw materials will not make them change the way of buying and using, because the experience from last year to the present It seems that the on-demand procurement method has the least risk and is also the most beneficial to the enterprise’s capital chain.
No matter which method is used, companies are unlikely to purchase polyester raw materials in large quantities in the short term.
Zhang Hongwen: The fastest vaccine will be available March to June next year Come out
This rise in oil prices is directly due to the smooth development of the vaccine, which has produced phased results.
In previous interviews, Zhang Wenhong, leader of the Shanghai New Crown Pneumonia Treatment Expert Group and director of the Infectious Diseases Department of Huashan Hospital, said that the vaccine will be available from March to June next year at the earliest.
Therefore, the smooth progress of vaccine research is a long-term positive factor. In the long term, it will naturally be beneficial to European and American countries to resume work and production and restore the economy; but this news can explain the current situation. If the outbreak of the epidemic is urgent, relying on vaccines to restore foreign trade demand in a short time is still a bit too much.
Postscript
A piece of good vaccine news detonated the stock market and crude oil market, but this time, the polyester market was not interested in this round of crude oil rise. On the one hand, it is because the benefits of the previous increase in crude oil prices have been released in advance, and on the other hand, it is because the textile market has begun to enter the traditional off-season. When the epidemic hits the off-season, Boss Bu’s life may become difficult again…
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