Last week, polyester filament experienced a new wave of promotions and price cuts, driving a wave of market sentiment. This Monday (August 31), the polyester factory started a big promotion again, and the production and sales of polyester once again exceeded 100. But on the other hand, when polyester factories are not promoting sales, polyester production and sales are pitifully low.
Now that September is here, the demand for autumn and winter fabrics should logically pick up. Can the status of polyester filament sales relying on promotions be changed?
Polyester yarn in history in September and October: more declines and less rises
According to logical reasoning, September and October are the peak seasons for the market, and the market is generally better. The price of polyester filament should increase, but the editor compared the prices of polyester filament in September from 2015 to 2019. After the performance in October, it was found that this was not the case.
We can see from the picture above that the price of polyester yarn in September and October over the past years has not changed It is a definite trend, with ups and downs. In 2018, the most exaggerated fluctuation, the price of polyester filament fell by more than 2,000 yuan/ton in just ninety-two months. In 2015, it also fell by nearly 1,000 yuan/ton. On the contrary, There are not many rising years.
However, due to the epidemic, this year’s situation is very special and different from previous years.
Poor fundamentals, polyester factories are under pressure
In terms of upstream raw materials, since the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the prices of PTA and MEG began to plummet, reaching the bottom in early April, and then began to rebound slowly. After June, the rebound almost stagnated, and PTA and MEG began to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the fluctuations were not obvious.
In terms of inventory, from China Judging from the statistics of Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 33-43 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-33 days, and DTY inventory is around 30 days -About 43 days. It can be said that the current polyester inventory has almost reached an all-time high.
From a profit perspective, After June this year, as polyester inventories skyrocketed, the profits of various polyester filament products also plummeted, and after July, profits completely turned to losses. During this period, while the prices of PTA and MEG did not change significantly, polyester profits fluctuated by several hundred yuan along with their own price changes. However, overall, the loss situation has not been effectively improved.
If we look at the experience of previous years and the current inventory and raw material situation, the price of polyester yarn in the future does not seem to be promising, but there is one thing that cannot be ignored.
Under the influence of the once-in-a-century COVID-19 epidemic, this year’s terminal market is the worst in recent years, but the price of polyester filament has also fallen to a record low. Take FDY150D as an example. In previous years, the price of 7,000 yuan/ton was already a rare low price. When it was the most expensive, it sold for 12,000 yuan/ton and was still in short supply. However, on August 31 this year, its price was 5,600 yuan/ton.
It can be said that as long as the market is slightly stimulated, there is still a lot of room for rebound in polyester prices, and this mainly depends on the performance of the downstream weaving market.
Boss Bu: “Love and hate” raw materials
Having been “ravaged” by the market situation in the past two years, cloth bosses can be said to have a “love-hate relationship” with raw material prices: they love that the current prices are indeed cheap enough, but hate that amid the sharp rise and fall, buying raw materials has become a problem. It’s more exciting than buying stocks. The editor learned that some large weaving companies ended up losing millions because they hoarded raw materials based on previous years’ experience.
Therefore, buying and using as you go has now become the choice of most textile people. Even if the polyester factory has a discount, people don’t dare to buy more for fear of another big price cut. . But having said that, the price of polyester yarn is now reaching the point where it cannot be lowered.
In terms of market conditions, with the arrival of the traditional peak season and the successful development of the new coronavirus vaccine, market confidence has gradually recovered, and orders from textile companies have gradually begun to improve since the end of August. However, we must also see that due to the huge amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage, selling goods is still the main theme in the current market, and the improvement is limited to a limited number of varieties such as stretch fabrics and imitation memory.
For fabrics with the largest inventories on the market, such as imitation silk, pongee, polyester taffeta, etc., they will have to go through a long period of destocking before the market really improves. process.
Judging from the experience of previous years, September and October are the peak seasons for the textile market, but not for polyester raw materials.��Under the influence of the epidemic this year, the profits of polyester filament have been greatly compressed, and the inventory has reached historical highs. Fabric bosses also have certain doubts about buying large quantities of raw materials. But on the other hand, under the pressure of many negative factors, the price of polyester filament has reached a historical low. Now that the negative factors have been exhausted, polyester filament will rise as long as there is a little benefit. Therefore, the editor judges that polyester prices will indeed rebound after September, but under the pressure of high inventory, the rebound may not be too large.
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