After entering March, crude oil silently rose for five consecutive days, which also drove the overall price trend of the downstream industry chain to be significantly stronger. Boosted by this wave of market conditions, polyester filament also rose for two consecutive days, with an increase of 150-200. The price is about RMB/ton, and now it is the golden peak season. Is polyester filament really in a turnaround?
To answer this question, we need to understand the reasons why polyester filament yarns have continued to rise this week. The editor believes that there are many factors that have caused this round of polyester yarn price increases: 1. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the price of crude oil has increased. The price rise is driven by the cost side; 2. Last week was the end of the month, and polyester factories offered profits for shipments. The market just needed replenishment and production and sales picked up, so the inventory dropped.
Crude oil prices rise
Saudi Arabia raised the price of most of its crude oil exports to Asia and Europe in April, signaling that it believes oil demand in those two regions will rise, while prices for crude oil exports to the United States will remain unchanged. Although crude oil futures prices have fallen this year, many energy traders and company executives expect prices to continue rising. Oil prices could rise even higher later this year as pandemic restrictions ease and inflation slows in major economies.
From last week, WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 4.4%, and Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.2%. In addition, the operating rate of the domestic polyester industry chain has rebounded, causing PTA futures prices to also begin to rebound. As of March 7, PTA was quoted at 5,855 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton, or 5%, from the end of last month. As an important cost factor of polyester filament, it has been booming since March, which has greatly supported the price of polyester filament.
The effect of de-banking is obvious
In addition to cost factors, on the other hand, the profit-sharing measures for polyester filament shipments at the end of February, combined with the arrival of the golden season, have achieved very good results. The average production and sales of polyester reached about 93% last week, and in a single day The average production and sales can reach a maximum of 183.3%, which has led to a significant destocking of polyester filament stocks.
According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 19-30 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 21-30 days, FDY inventory is around 19-28 days, and DTY inventory is around 19-30 days. About 17-29 days. After achieving the effect of destocking, polyester factories will naturally have the confidence to increase prices.
However, in the opinion of the editor, the turnaround of polyester filament may still be impossible.
Crude oil price suddenly inverted “V”
On Tuesday, March 7, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at a hearing of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. He warned that strong data at the beginning of this year may prompt the Federal Reserve not to continue to slow down, but to accelerate the pace of raising interest rates. Interest rates may rise higher than the Fed previously expected. As a result, international oil prices fell across the board. The U.S. oil April contract fell 4.04% to US$77.21/barrel, ending five consecutive gains; the Brent oil May contract fell 3.74% to US$82.96/barrel.
Polyester load is higher than weaving start rate
Currently, according to statistics as of last week, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 75.6%, while the polyester load calculated at the same time is 80.4%. The polyester load has slightly exceeded the weaving start-up rate, so it is very likely that this week Polyester inventory will start to rise slightly again. It must be clear that the increase in production and sales last week was based on the simultaneous promotion of profits and urgent purchases. Compared with the weaving start-up rate at this time in previous years, the current weaving start-up rate should have already Reaching about 80%.
To sum up, due to the increase in equipment maintenance in PTA, cost-side support may have a certain impact, so polyester filament is still expected to rise to a certain extent. However, the market demand has not yet recovered to a certain level. Level, it is expected that polyester filament prices will remain volatile next week, and the market that first rises and then falls is still possible to continue.
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