TheexpansionofChina’sethyleneglycolismainlyduetothesubstantialincreaseindemandforpolyesterconsumergoodsinNortheastAsiaandthegradualriseofthedomesticcoalchemicalindustry.Inthefuture,thegrowthpointofethyleneglycolconsumptionwillstillbepolyester.Drivenbythesubstantialincreaseinpolyesterproductioncapacityaroundtheworld,especiallyinAsia,thegrowthrateisexpectedtobearound3.5-4%.ItisexpectedthatChina’sdemandforethyleneglycolwillremainstableinthenext3-5years.Fastergrowth.
However,asChina’sethyleneglycolreachesitspeakproductionperiod,itsgrowthratefarexceedsthegrowthrateofdownstreampolyester,anditiscurrentlyinastageofovercapacity.
The increase in domestic market supply mainly comes from the increase in domestic coal production volume, with the gradual rise of coal chemical industry. Coal-to-ethylene glycol production capacity has expanded rapidly since 2018, and so far the production capacity base has increased to 6.27 million tons.
In the context of the national dual-carbon strategy, strict carbon emission standards will systematically increase the cost of the coal chemical industry, accelerate the liquidation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and accelerate technological upgrading of large enterprises. At the same time, it has also increased the entry threshold for new entrants, and the growth rate of coal-based production may tend to slow down to around 15-18%.
In the future, the growth point of China’s ethylene glycol consumption will still be polyester, with polyester raw materials accounting for nearly 93% of total consumption.
In 2020, large-scale refining and chemicals will be gradually put into operation. The output of ethylene glycol is expected to be 3-3.3 million tons/year. The growth rate is still close to 14%, which is still greater than its downstream polyester demand. With a growth rate of 8-9%, the gap between ethylene glycol supply and demand will further widen, and the surplus pattern may be difficult to change in the next 3-5 years. Judging from the ethylene glycol production situation in 2021, the production is expected to be around 5.87 million tons, the production capacity base may rise to 21.551 million tons, and the growth rate is expected to be 37.43%, of which the proportion of integrated units in production is nearly 60.8%.
Ethylene glycol production: The production volume from January to June was nearly 3.11 million tons, and the production progress was nearly 61.3%. Among them, the overall load of oil processing units such as Satellite Petrochemical’s 1.58 million ton unit remains at around 70%, and the supply is relatively stable; in addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1#750,000 ton unit is currently operating stably at full load, and the 2#800,000 ton unit has already produced qualified products. .
In terms of coal production, Hubei Sanning’s 600,000 tons/year syngas production MEG unit is in the trial operation stage, and no polyester-grade products have been produced yet. The Inner Mongolia Jianyuan 260,000-tonne plant that was commissioned during the same period is still in the trial and product debugging stages.
Looking at the later stage, there are still nearly 1 million tons of production to be released from July to August, and the supply pressure is still not small. Specifically, the 800,000-ton Gulei plant in Fujian and the 200,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi Huayi are expected to be commissioned in mid-to-late July and products will be released in August. </p
